After adding over 516,000 new cases throughout the last week, the U.S. now has more than 81.2 million confirmed cases of COVID-19. There have been more than 990,000 COVID-19-related deaths — the highest death toll of any country.

New cases continue to rise at a steady rate. In the past week, there were an average of 20.3 daily new coronavirus cases per 100,000 Americans — essentially unchanged from the week prior, when there were an average of 16.7 daily new coronavirus cases per 100,000 people.

While COVID-19 has spread to nearly every part of the country, cities continue to be the sites of major outbreaks. Experts agree that the virus is more likely to spread in group settings where large numbers of people routinely have close contact with one another, such as colleges, nursing homes, bars, and restaurants. Metropolitan areas with a high degree of connectivity between different neighborhoods and a large population may be particularly at-risk.

In the 50 largest metro areas, the incidence of coronavirus grew at an average rate of 23.5 new cases a day per 100,000 residents in the past week — 22.6% greater than the case growth in all counties outside of metro areas.

The Lynchburg, VA, metro area consists of Bedford County, the city of Lynchburg, Campbell County, and two other counties. In the past week, there were an average of 13.0 new coronavirus cases every day per 100,000 Lynchburg residents, less than the national figure. The metro area’s average daily case growth in the most recent week is essentially unchanged from the week prior, when there were an average of 10.5 daily new cases per 100,000 Lynchburg residents.

The spread of coronavirus depends on a variety of factors and can vary even between neighboring counties. Within the Lynchburg metro area, COVID-19 is growing the slowest in Lynchburg city. There were an average of 2.0 new cases per day per 100,000 residents in Lynchburg city during the past week, the least of the five counties in Lynchburg with available data.

Case growth in the Lynchburg metro area varies widely at the county level. In Campbell County, for example, there were an average of 38.0 new cases per day per 100,000 residents in the past week — the most of any county in Lynchburg and far more than the case growth rate in Lynchburg city.

While Lynchburg city has the slowest case growth in the Lynchburg area, it does not have the lowest incidence of cases overall. As of May 12, there were a total of 24,576.4 confirmed cases per 100,000 residents in Lynchburg city, the fifth fewest of the five counties in the metro area. For comparison, the U.S. has so far reported 25,031.2 cases per 100,000 Americans nationwide.

The pandemic has led to the closure of thousands of consumer-facing businesses around the country. These changes have led to widespread job loss and record unemployment. These changes have led to widespread job loss and record unemployment. In Lynchburg city, unemployment peaked at 11.7% in April 2020. As of June 2021, the county’s unemployment rate was 6.0%.

To determine the county in every metropolitan area where COVID-19 is growing the slowest, 24/7 Wall St. compiled and reviewed data from state and local health departments. We ranked counties according to the average number of new daily COVID-19 cases per 100,000 residents in the seven days ending May 12. To estimate the incidence of COVID-19 at the metropolitan level, we aggregated data from the county level using boundary definitions from the U.S. Census Bureau. Population data used to adjust case and death totals came from the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2019 American Community Survey and are five-year estimates. Unemployment data is from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and is not seasonally adjusted.

These are all the counties in Virginia where COVID-19 is slowing (and where it’s still getting worse).

Rank in MSA	County	Population	New daily cases per 100,000, week ending May 12	New daily cases per 100,000, week ending May 5	Cumulative cases per 100,000	Cumulative deaths per 100,000
1	Lynchburg city	80,569	2.0	0.0	24,576.4	331.4
2	Appomattox County	15,707	9.1	5.5	24,269.4	337.4
3	Amherst County	31,775	12.8	11.5	22,974.0	280.1
4	Bedford County	78,376	12.9	8.7	21,877.9	306.2
5	Campbell County	55,225	38.0	46.9	23,172.5	389.3

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