After adding over 516,000 new cases throughout the last week, the U.S. now has more than 81.2 million confirmed cases of COVID-19. There have been more than 990,000 COVID-19-related deaths — the highest death toll of any country.

New cases continue to rise at a steady rate. In the past week, there were an average of 20.3 daily new coronavirus cases per 100,000 Americans — essentially unchanged from the week prior, when there were an average of 16.7 daily new coronavirus cases per 100,000 people.

While COVID-19 has spread to nearly every part of the country, cities continue to be the sites of major outbreaks. Experts agree that the virus is more likely to spread in group settings where large numbers of people routinely have close contact with one another, such as colleges, nursing homes, bars, and restaurants. Metropolitan areas with a high degree of connectivity between neighborhoods and a large population may be particularly at-risk.

In the 50 largest metro areas, the incidence of coronavirus grew at an average rate of 23.5 new cases a day per 100,000 residents in the past week — 22.6% greater than the case growth in all counties outside of metro areas.

The Rochester, MN, metro area consists of Olmsted County, Wabasha County, Fillmore County, and one other county. In the past week, there were an average of 50.6 new coronavirus cases every day per 100,000 Rochester residents, greater than the national figure. The metro area’s average daily case growth in the most recent week is an increase from the week prior, when there was an average of 40.2 daily new cases per 100,000 Rochester residents.

The spread of coronavirus depends on a variety of factors and can vary even between neighboring counties. Within the Rochester metro area, COVID-19 is growing the fastest in Olmsted County. There were an average of 56.6 new cases per day per 100,000 residents in Olmsted County during the past week, the most of the four counties in Rochester with available data.

Case growth in the Rochester metro area varies at the county level. In Fillmore County, for example, there were an average of 27.5 new cases per day per 100,000 residents in the past week — the least of any county in Rochester and more than the case growth rate in Olmsted County.

While Olmsted County is driving the growth of COVID-19 in the Rochester area, it does not have the highest incidence of cases overall. As of May 12, there were a total of 27,918.9 confirmed cases per 100,000 residents in Olmsted County, the second most of the four counties in the metro area. For comparison, the U.S. has so far reported 25,031.2 cases per 100,000 Americans nationwide.

The pandemic has led to the closure of thousands of consumer-facing businesses around the country. These changes have led to widespread job loss and record unemployment. In Olmsted County, unemployment peaked at 9.8% in May 2020. As of June 2021, the county’s unemployment rate was 3.7%.

To determine the county in every metropolitan area where COVID-19 is growing the fastest, 24/7 Wall St. compiled and reviewed data from state and local health departments. We ranked counties according to the average number of new daily COVID-19 cases per 100,000 residents in the seven days ending May 12. To estimate the incidence of COVID-19 at the metropolitan level, we aggregated data up from the county level using boundary definitions from the U.S. Census Bureau. Population data used to adjust case and death totals came from the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2019 American Community Survey and are five-year estimates. Unemployment data is from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and is not seasonally adjusted.

These are all the counties in Minnesota where COVID-19 is slowing (and where it’s still getting worse).

Rank in MSA	County	Population	New daily cases per 100,000, week ending May 12	New daily cases per 100,000, week ending May 5	Cumulative cases per 100,000	Cumulative deaths per 100,000
1	Olmsted County	154,809	56.6	44.0	27,918.9	118.2
2	Dodge County	20,669	47.0	35.4	28,385.5	101.6
3	Wabasha County	21,537	34.0	35.8	26,786.5	74.3
4	Fillmore County	20,949	27.5	21.2	23,404.5	114.6

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