After a swelteringly hot 2021 growing season farmers and ranchers in Teton Valley are going up against a different beast this year with the effects of a longer spring.
With drought conditions persisting through winter, late spring storms have simultaneously raised morale while creating a fresh set of complexities for local agricultural producers.
Jennifer Werlin, an extension educator at the University of Idaho Teton County Extension Office, would have liked to have seen the weather come earlier this year. It’s pretty safe to say that many share a similar sentiment.
“I wish this weather was back in February,” Werlin said. “It has delayed planting in our county and has given producers less of a window to plant this spring.”
Werlin also mentioned that late frosts are also a big concern for producers this year.
On the other hand, the moisture that has been falling is what producers would rather take, according to Sean Ellis, Idaho Farm Bureau Federation publications editor.
“Farmers gotta plant, but water comes first,” Ellis said. “If they had to choose, yeah they would definitely take the water and plant a little bit later, I believe.”
WATER COMES FIRST
According to data gathered by Senior Scientist Dr. Rob Van Kirk of the Henry’s Fork Foundation, April 2022 had above-average precipitation, only the seventh month to do so since June 2020.
“April seemed much wetter than it actually was, but after such a dry winter, any precipitation would seem like a lot,” Van Kirk said in his May 2 daily report. Van Kirk’s reports can be accessed by emailing the Henry’s Fork Foundation.
Even more noteworthy than April’s burst of precipitation was its cool temperatures. Last month was the third coldest April during the 1988-2022 period of record, coming in 4 degrees colder than normal.
While the precipitation and cool temperatures offered a welcome respite from the dry weather this winter carried, it did not put much of a dent in the extended drought outlook.
Indeed, Idaho Gov. Brad Little recently approved an Idaho Department of Water Resources emergency drought declaration for 34 of 44 Idaho counties, including all of East Idaho.
That declaration will open up federal emergency financial tools to farmers in all of those 34 counties. Ellis said that signifies just how much of an issue water will be this summer across the state.
“Water is a huge issue as it always is in southern Idaho, but it’s a bigger issue this year,” Ellis said.
RESERVOIRS AND IRRIGATION
While water in the fields is a step in the right direction, perhaps the greatest worry is seen in the high peaks. The snow missing from long stretches of this past winter has made an already worrisome snowpack situation even more dire.
While the Island Park Reservoir (in the Henry’s Fork watershed) is sitting at a healthy 96 percent full as of May 8, the same cannot be said for the Upper Snake Reservoir system where Jackson Lake sits at a very low 22 percent full, and the Palisades Reservoir sits at 43 percent.
The good news, if there is any, is that peak Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) was reached on April 23, 11 days later than average.
That delay is shaping up to have a large impact on irrigation demand, particularly later on this growing season. This, combined with the precipitation that has fallen in the fields, will keep irrigation demand low at least in the short term.
The best-case scenario, with cool, wet weather extending into the summer, will mean irrigation demand remains low, which will spare more water for upstream junior rights holders.
“If rain is heavy enough and temperatures are cool enough, irrigation demand will be low because direct precipitation will make up a greater fraction of crop needs than average,” Van Kirk said in his May 3 report. “The best outcome possible this year is a lower-than-expected reservoir draft that will put end-of-season reservoir storage near average here in the Henry’s Fork watershed.”
Van Kirk’s report continued, stating what the best-case situation could mean across the growing season and in the long run.
“For agricultural producers, the ‘best case’ water situation will likely come at the expense of crop yields and quality this year but provide a greater chance of reservoir fill and higher storage allocations next year,” Van Kirk said.
Ellis concurred with Van Kirk.
“Just having the moisture for the soil is beneficial and delays the need for irrigation to start. It keeps the water up in the reservoirs,” Ellis said.
As spring comes into its own and transitions into summer local producers’ eyes will continue to be monitoring the priority date for downstream water rights. Werlin stated that producers will, as in the case last year, be heavily dependent on whether or not they get a futile call.
A futile call happens when water being diverted by a junior rights holder is permitted to continue being diverted despite a priority call from a senior rights holder in the same watershed because curtailing the junior rights holder from diversion would produce water for beneficial use for the senior rights holder.
“Unless we get a futile call, everyone is in a dire situation. It will be a rough situation in Teton County,” Werlin said. “They got it last year, which was good. They were also on rotating schedules for irrigation. They are predicted to do that. It will be similar to last summer. If they get a futile call they can at least use the water that’s available.”
MARKET FACTORS
With water and other resources at a premium, that has caused crop prices to increase dramatically. With lower yields being produced, supply and demand requires the prices for the commodities to go up. That increases farmers’ income.
“Idaho had one of the worst droughts we’ve had last year and we still set a record for farm income,” Ellis said. “Am I saying drought is good? No, but if you reduce supply, the prices go up. Wheat’s a global market, same as dairy, but Idaho is the leader in potatoes and the national leader in barley also. Barley was way down, potatoes a little down, but the prices went up and it only takes a little drop in supply to raise the prices.”
According to Ellis, from March 2021 to March 2022, the market price of wheat went from $5.56/bushel to $8.59/bushel. Barley increased from $4.99/bushel to $5.62/bushel. Hay went from $163/ton to $237/ton.
The bad news is that while farm income and commodity prices have increased, production costs have skyrocketed even further.
“The costs have gone ballistic,” Ellis said. “Fuel, farm equipment, labor, labor always goes up, it seems like, chemicals, and fertilizer, if you can even get fertilizer.”
Fertilizer is a particularly hot commodity due to its scarcity and effect on yields.
“If you don’t have fertilizer, your yields go way down,” Ellis said.
Trucking costs, which are particularly important in Teton County simply due to its relative geographic isolation, have gone up similarly to the prices that non-producers have seen at the pump.
Even though farm diesel prices are around a dollar less per gallon than what’s available to non-producers, Ellis stated that seeing diesel at the pump at prices $5 a gallon and over are “unheard of.”
Increased trucking costs are naturally an effect of the increase seen at the pumps.
“It goes along with them. I’ve heard about a 20 to 30 percent diesel increase,” Ellis said. “It varies by farm and what your portfolio of crops is but I’m hearing upwards of 30 to 50 percent increase (in trucking costs).”
He continued: “Part of that is the transportation because Idaho is far away from the main markets. We don’t have enough people in Idaho to consume a fraction of what we grow here. You have to get that commodity to market by truck, train, whatever, and fuel prices have gone crazy. It’s costing them more to produce and more to transport. It’s a double whammy.”
‘DON’T BLAME FARMERS’
Ellis was sure to remind grocery shoppers that price increases they are seeing at the store are not the fault of the farmers that produce the food.
“I would say don’t blame farmers for that. Their costs are much higher,” Ellis said.
It is no secret that rapid inflation has been affecting everyone in the country. Even the rate at which inflation is increasing is comparatively low to the increased production costs seen by farmers. It is important to remember that producers see just a small percentage of the money shoppers spend.
“Official government data shows inflation year over year is at 8.1 percent; I guarantee you, farm production costs are up double that,” Ellis said. “Don’t blame farmers when your costs at the grocery store go up because on the average farm, according to USDS data, the average farmer gets 7.5 percent of every food dollar spent in the U.S. — that’s it.”
Ellis remains in awe of all the complexities and risks farmers have to take on.
“The biggest uncertainty is what their costs are going to be, and being in Idaho, you throw in the water thing, too,” Ellis said. “I don’t even know how they sleep at night. I’m not a farmer myself, but I work for farmers. They’re the ultimate optimists and gamblers when figuring out what they’re going to plant with that uncertainty. Kudos to them.”