ContributorsPublishersAdvertisers

Depression Thirteen expected to become Tropical Storm Julia

ABC13 Houston
ABC13 Houston
 55 minutes ago
October 6 10:00 p.m.

Radar and satellite imagery from South America has prompted the National Hurricane Center to upgrade Thirteen to a Tropical Depression. It is still forecasted to become Tropical Storm Julia around sunrise Friday morning. It should be a hurricane when it strikes central America late this weekend.

October 6 11:00 a.m.

Potential Storm Thirteen has formed in the southern Caribbean. Over the next day or so, this system is expected to become Tropical Storm Julia. On the forecast track, this system forecast to move across

the southwestern Caribbean Sea and approach the coast of Nicaragua on Sunday. There is a chance some of its tropical moisture could eventually get into the southwest Gulf of Mexico and head to Texas.

October 5 7:00 a.m.

Tropical Depression Twelve continues to move northwest away from the Cabo Verde Islands. Little change in strength is forecast and the system is expected to dissipate in a couple of days.

Showers and thunderstorms have increased around a tropical disturbance over the eastern Caribbean Sea, and the National Hurricane Center now gives it a high (80%) chance for development into a tropical depression or storm by Monday.

October 4 1:00 p.m.

Showers and thunderstorms have increased around a tropical disturbance approaching the Caribbean Sea, and the National Hurricane Center now gives it a high (70%) chance for development into a tropical depression or storm by Sunday.

October 4 7:00 a.m.

The National Hurricane Center is monitoring two areas of potential development in the Atlantic. One is an area of low pressure off the coast of Africa that has an 80% chance of development, and another closest to the Windward Islands has a 40% chance for development during the next five days. The second is expected to move west into the Caribbean in the next couple of days. Neither of them are immediate threats to Texas, just a couple of systems we'll be monitoring.

October 3 7:00 a.m.

The National Hurricane Center is monitoring two areas of potential development in the Atlantic. One tropical wave is off the coast of Africa with a 70% chance of development, and another closest to the Windward Islands has a 40% chance for development during the next five days. Neither of them are immediate threats to Texas, just a couple of systems we'll be monitoring.

October 2 7:00 a.m.

The remnants of Ian are making for some wet weather in the northeast and mid-Atlantic, but the system is quickly running out of steam.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic we've got our eyes on two areas of potential development, one wave off of Africa with a 70% chance of development, and another in the western Atlantic with a 20% chance for development. Neither of them are immediate threats to Texas, just a couple of systems we'll be monitoring.

October 1 7:00 a.m.

Ian is now a "post-tropical" system, bringing scattered showers through the east coast and peak winds of 35 miles per hour.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, we are monitoring a tropical wave off the coast of Africa with a 70% chance of development over the next five days. It is no immediate concern to the U.S., and will likely never be.

September 30 4:00 p.m.

Ian is no longer a tropical system, but it's still producing winds of 70 miles per hour. The heavy rain and storm surge will continue along with the strong winds.

September 30 2:00 p.m.

Ian made landfall near Georgetown, South Carolina at about 1:05 p.m. central time. It had 85 miles per hour winds when it hit land. In addition to flooding from heavy rain, Ian is producing a 3-6 foot storm surge just southwest of Myrtle Beach.

September 30 8:00 a.m.

Ian is a Category 1 hurricane with 85 miles per hour winds. Landfall is expected very near Charleston Friday afternoon as a category 1 hurricane. Flooding concerns for much of the Carolina coastline due to very heavy rain and storm surge. 4-8" of rain will be common with some places getting as much as 12". The storm surge could reach 7 feet.

A tropical wave off the African coast will continue to be watched for tropical development. Formation odds have increased to 60% during the next five days.

September 29 10:00 p.m.

Hurricane Hunters flew through Ian this evening and found 85 miles per hour winds. Ian should make it to the South Carolina coast Friday morning. Flooding from heavy rain and storm surge will be major issues. Strong winds will obviously cause tree damage and power outages.

September 29 4:00 p.m.

Ian is a hurricane again with 75 miles per hour wind. It's located in the Atlantic 240 miles south of Charleston S.C. Landfall is expected very near Charleston Friday afternoon as a category 1 hurricane. Concern is really growing about flooding Friday in Charleston due to very heavy rain and storm surge. Four to eight inches of rain will be common with some places getting as much as 12 inches. The storm surge could reach 7 feet.

September 29 10:00 a.m.

Ian is now a tropical storm with maximum sustained winds of 70 miles per hour. Ian is expected to strengthen to a hurricane as it makes a second landfall in the Carolinas on Friday. A Hurricane Warning has been issued for the entire coast of South Carolina.

September 28 11:00 p.m.

Hurricane Ian decreased from a category 3 to a category 1 in about three hours. Strong onshore winds will keep the surge going overnight. The heavy rain and wind appears to be headed for Orlando then Daytona Beach before 9am Thursday. A second landfall in the Carolinas is likely late Friday into Saturday.

September 28 6:00 p.m.

Hurricane Ian made landfall on the west coast of Florida this afternoon with 155 miles per hour winds. A catastrophic storm surge is underway. The slow movement of the storm means the central part of the state will pick up 12-20 inches of rain with isolated areas getting up to 30 inches. The extreme winds will weaken some overnight but wind damage and power outages will continue into and through Thursday. The center of the storm will move very slowly, reaching Orlando Thursday afternoon. By then the storm is expected to be a tropical storm with 65 miles per hour winds.

September 28 1:00 p.m.

Hurricane Ian remains a Category 4 hurricane with 155 miles per hour sustained winds... just 2 miles per hour shy of category 5 status. Hurricane Ian's eastern eyewall is moving onto the western coast of Florida near Fort Myers and Port Charlotte. Overall, Ian is moving NNE at 9 miles per hour and should make landfall within the next couple of hours. Its latest track has it moving onshore within the next few hours, over central Florida tonight-Thursday morning, and then moving back into the western Atlantic by late Thursday.

Ian will continue to bring devastating impacts to parts of Florida including storm surge, flash flooding, extreme winds, and tornadoes.

September 28 8:00 a.m.

The National Hurricane Center now says Hurricane Ian is going to bring "catastrophic storm surge, catastrophic winds, and catastrophic flooding" to the Florida peninsula.

Ian rapidly intensified to a high end category 4 hurricane Wednesday morning with winds of 155 miles per hour. Ian is forecast to make landfall just to the north of Fort Myers, Florida Wednesday afternoon and then weaken once it makes landfall.

September 27 7:00 p.m.

The National Hurricane Center now says Hurricane Ian is going to bring "life-threatening storm surge, catastrophic winds, and flooding" to the Florida peninsula.

Ian is going through an eyewall replacement cycle. This process causes the hurricane to grow larger and eventually stronger. The pressure continues to drop, but the winds are holding steady at 120 miles per hour for now. Once the cycle is complete, the wind speeds will likely increase into category 4 territory prior to landfall on Wednesday afternoon or evening.

September 27 1:00 p.m.

Ian is now over the Gulf of Mexico, and intensification has resumed.

Landfall is expected to occur Wednesday along Florida's west coast. Most computer models are targeting a landfall between Tampa and Fort Myers.

September 27 8:00 a.m.

Ian has intensified to a category 3 hurricane as it made landfall in western Cuba early Tuesday morning. From there it will move north into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, continuing to the intensify. We should see a peak in winds through Wednesday...looking at near 140 miles per hour winds which would put it at cat 4 status. It should make landfall on the western coast of Florida Wednesday night into early Thursday.

September 26 7:00 p.m.

Ian's pressure continues to drop on its approach to Cuba, which is a sign the storm continues to intensify. Evacuations have begun along Florida's west coast due to the potential for a life-threatening storm surge.

September 26 4:00 p.m.

Ian has intensified to a category 2 hurricane as it nears Cuba. It is expected to make landfall in Cuba tonight at a possible category 3 strength. From there it will move north into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico continuing to the intensify. We should see a peak in winds Tuesday-Wednesday...looking at near 140 miles per hour winds which would put it at cat 4 status. It should make landfall on the western coast of Florida Wednesday night into Thursday.

September 26 4:00 a.m.

Ian has made the expected jump to hurricane strength. It's rapid intensification is just beginning.

Ian currently has maximum sustained winds of 75 miles per hour with a central pressure down to 983 millibars. The storm is 90 miles SW of Grand Cayman, and is moving NW at 14 miles per hour.

Hurricane Watches are now in effect for portions of western Florida.

Ian will continue to intensify as it moves over the western tip of Cuba and into the Gulf of Mexico. The latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center has Ian reaching Cat 4 strength with 140miles per hour in the Eastern Gulf, eventually bringing widespread flooding rains, storm surge, and hurricane force winds to portions of Florida.

There will be no impact in SE Texas, with the exception of the potential for some rougher seas midweek.

September 25 7:00 p.m.

Hurricane Hunters report that Ian is intensifying with winds now at 60 miles per hour, and this may be the start of a rapid intensification phase that could take Ian to category 4 intensity by the time it gets over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday.

September 25 7:00 a.m.

Ian currently has 50 miles per hour winds in the Caribbean, but rapid intensification is expected over the next couple of days as it moves towards Cuba and eventually the Gulf. The latest track from the National Hurricane Center has shifted a bit farther west, though the forecast track remains centered on Florida, highlighting areas from the Florida Panhandle to southwest Florida.

Ian is expected to reach Cat 4 strength in the Gulf as early as Tuesday. Some dry air in it's path will hopefully help to weaken the storm some before it makes landfall.

There will be no direct impacts from Ian in Texas, though we could see an increase in wave heights and some rough surf as Ian intensifies in the Gulf next week.

September 24 7:00 p.m.

Ian hasn't gotten much stronger. But it should begin to get stronger as it moves into the northwest Caribbean late Sunday where the water temperature is very warm and where wind shear is low. The main change to the track this evening is that it's shifted west taking Miami out of the cone while increasing chances for the panhandle. The official forecast now calls for the storm to become a category four hurricane as it's moving through the eastern Gulf.

September 24 5:30 a.m.

Tropical Storm Ian is strengthening in the Caribbean, now up to 45 miles per hour max winds as it moves west at 14 miles per hour. Ian is expected to strengthen into a hurricane in the coming days, then move into the Eastern Gulf. Ian will not have any impact in Texas, as models are in good agreement that the storm will move into the west coast of Florida, possibly as a major (Cat3) hurricane.

Elsewhere we have Tropical Storm Hermine off the coast of Africa, Tropical Storm Gaston in the northern Atlantic, and post tropical Fiona impacting eastern Canada. None of those storms will impact the US.

September 23 10:30 p.m.

Tropical Storm Ian has formed as the ninth named storm of the season, spinning in the central Caribbean.

The National Hurricane Center expects it to produce heavy rainfall and instances of flash flooding and possible mudslides, particularly over Jamaica and Cuba. Hurricane conditions are also possible in the Cayman islands by early Monday.

Ian's potential impact to the United States may be contained east of us in Florida. Early next week, the storm is forecast to move near or over western Cuba as a strengthening hurricane and then approach the Florida peninsula at or near major hurricane strength,

September 23 6:00 p.m.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Jamaica. A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the Cayman Islands. Since Hermine has been named in the far eastern Atlantic, T.D. Nine will be named Ian sometime this weekend. It could hit Florida as a major hurricane sometime between Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.

September 23 10:00 a.m.

Tropical Depression Nine is now expected to reach Cat 3 strength in the Eastern Gulf by next week. TD9, likely to be named "Hermine" by the end of the day, does not look like it will impact Texas, but could have significant impacts to parts of the Caribbean as soon as this weekend, and could be impacting the US by the middle of next week. Florida is the most likely area for landfall, but it's still a bit too far out to pinpoint any exact locations.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic basic we have Hurricane Fiona (Cat 4) pulling away from Bermuda and headed towards Eastern Canada, Tropical Storm Gaston in the Northern Atlantic, and Tropical Depression 10 off the coast of Africa. None of those storms will have any direct impact on the US.

September 23 4:00 a.m.

The tropical wave we have been monitoring in the Caribbean is now officially Tropical Depression Nine. It currently has 35 miles per hour maximum winds and is moving WNW at 13 miles per hour. The forecast cone from the National Hurricane Center strengths TD9 into Hurricane Hermine in Western Caribbean by early next week, eventually moving into the Eastern Gulf.

Forecast models are in good agreement that this storm will not impact Texas, but it could have major impacts to Florida by the middle of next week.

September 22 7:00 p.m.

The low pressure center over the Caribbean Sea now has a 90% chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm over the next couple of days. Our confidence continues to grow that this will stay well east of Texas, but until a solid system forms, we still have to respect and monitor it.

September 22 1:00 p.m.

A low pressure center has formed over the Caribbean Sea just north of Venezuela. It now has an 80% chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm over the next couple of days.

September 22 9:00 a.m.

While Hurricane Fiona (Cat 4) and Tropical Storm Gaston are the two strongest storms in the Atlantic, we are keeping a close watch on 98-L, a tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean. Models are in good agreement that as this system moves through the Caribbean it will become our next named storm. Models are also fairly consistent in showing this system as a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico, though it's a bit too far out to go into more specific details beyond that.

The typical pattern for a late September hurricane would be much more likely to bring a storm into the central or eastern Gulf (somewhere from Louisiana to Florida) than the western Gulf, but it's early enough that we're not completely ruling out the possibility of impacts in Texas. If we were to see any impact from this system it wouldn't be until the late part of next week, so we have time to monitor the wave and allow models to come into better agreement.

Elsewhere we have two other tropical waves in the open Atlantic that have a low to moderate chance of development.

September 21 7:00 p.m.

Hurricane Hunters are flying a survey mission through the tropical wave entering the Caribbean. This data will be fed into our overnight computer models, so it's possible you could see a shift in the computer model tracks when you wake up Thursday morning.

September 21 8:00 a.m.

Tropical Storm Gaston remains no threat to land. We need to keep a watchful eye on a tropical wave moving into the Caribbean. It has a high chance of developing into a tropical depression or storm this weekend as it moves over the central Caribbean Sea. It could rapidly develop into a hurricane due to the warm water and very light wind shear expected. The steering currents favor a move into the Gulf of Mexico, possibly as a powerful hurricane. It's too soon to say who will be impacted along the Gulf Coast (if it moves into the Gulf), but the timing would be late next week. By late September and early October it becomes increasingly difficult for hurricanes to hit Texas as the steering winds that push fall fronts down the Plains tend to steer hurricanes away from the western Gulf. Regardless, we'll keep an eye on it for you in the days ahead.

Meanwhile, Fiona is moving away from the Turks and Caicos as a major category 4 hurricane, and Bermuda is next up as Fiona passes by on Friday morning.

September 20 7 p.m.

There is now a high (90%) chance a tropical wave near South America will develop into a tropical depression or storm by Sunday as it cruises through the Caribbean.

Meanwhile, newly named Gaston will not impact land as it spins over the north Atlantic.

September 20 12:30 p.m.

A new tropical depression has formed over the north central Atlantic, but we need to keep a watchful eye on a tropical wave moving into the Caribbean. It has a high chance of developing into a tropical depression or storm this weekend as it moves over the central Caribbean Sea. It could rapidly develop into a hurricane due to the warm water and very light wind shear expected. The steering currents favor a move into the Gulf of Mexico, possibly as a powerful hurricane. It's too soon to say who will be impacted along the Gulf Coast (if it moves into the Gulf), but the timing would be late next week. By late September and early October it becomes increasingly difficult for hurricanes to hit Texas as the steering winds that push fall fronts down the Plains tend to steer hurricanes away from the western Gulf. Regardless, we'll keep an eye on it for you in the days ahead.

Meanwhile, Fiona is battering Turks and Caicos as a major category 3 hurricane, and Bermuda is next up as Fiona passes by on Friday morning.

September 20

Fiona is quickly strengthening now that it's back over the Atlantic Ocean. It is likely to pass by Turks and Caicos as a major hurricane Tuesday and could impact Bermuda as a major hurricane Thursday night into Friday morning.

Meanwhile, we are monitoring the next tropical wave that could develop into a hurricane once it enters the Caribbean Sea this weekend. Long range computer model projections strongly suggest this could become the first hurricane to reach the Gulf of Mexico this season. We'll keep an eye on it for you.

September 19 6 p.m.

Fiona is quickly strengthening now that it's back over the Atlantic Ocean.

It is likely to pass by Turks and Caicos as a major hurricane Tuesday and could impact Bermuda as a major hurricane Thursday night into Friday morning.

Meanwhile, we are monitoring the next tropical wave that could develop into a hurricane once it enters the Caribbean Sea this weekend. Long range computer model projections strongly suggest this could become the first hurricane to reach the Gulf of Mexico this season. We'll keep an eye on it for you.

September 19

Hurricane conditions continue as Fiona packs winds of 90 miles per hour. The center of Fiona will move back over water by Monday afternoon and pass near or to the east of the Turks and Caicos on Tuesday.

Flooding rain will continue for Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic and Haiti. Fiona is expected to curve to the northeast, avoiding any direct interaction with the eastern seaboard of the US later this week.

September 18

Fiona has reached hurricane strength ahead of its landfall in Puerto Rico. The strengthening storm now has maximum wind speeds of 80miles per hour, with a deepening pressure down to 987mb. A forward speed of just 8miles per hour means a long day of heavy rain, with parts of the island picking up as much as 20 inches of rain. Flooding and mudslides are a significant concern.

Fiona will move between Puerto Rico and the island of Hispaniola moving northwest, then will eventually curve to the northeast, avoiding any direct interaction with the eastern seaboard of the US.

September 17

Tropical Storm Fiona is packing winds of 60miles per hour as it moves west at 13 miles per hour. Fiona is expected to turn north and cross the Dominican Republic, bringing the worst impacts to Puerto Rico, including up to a foot of rain.

Forecast models are now in good agreement that the storm will stay well east of the Gulf, and likely keeping all impact away from even the eastern seaboard of the US.

Beyond Fiona the tropics are mostly quiet again, with just a couple of areas with low chances of development.

September 16, 8:00 a.m.

Tropical Storm Fiona has maximum sustained winds of 50 miles per hour and is moving west at 15 miles per hour. The storm is about 175 miles east of the Leeward Islands. The storm will bring heavy rain and gusty winds to the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola as it moves through the region this weekend. Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings have been issued for some of these areas. Beyond this weekend, the storm is likely to turn north. However, the longer the storm takes to make that turn, the greater the chance that it will bring potential impacts to the Bahamas and perhaps even South Florida.

There is a low chance of development from two tropical waves located in the Atlantic. One tropical wave is midway between the west coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles. The other is a few hundred miles west-northwest of Bermuda.

September 15, 8:00 a.m.

Tropical Storm Fiona has maximum sustained winds of 50 miles per hour and is moving west at 13 miles per hour. The storm is about 580 miles east of the Leeward Islands.

The forecast track beyond the weekend is highly uncertain. If the storm strengthens quickly and misses the islands to the north, it is more likely to keep moving north and miss the Gulf of Mexico completely. If it stays weaker it will keep moving westward. That will increase the chances that it interacts with the islands or stays south of them. If either of those scenarios occur, it is more likely to keep moving west toward the Gulf of Mexico, and then we'll have to pay it more attention.

September 14, 8:45 p.m.

The sixth named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season is here.

The National Hurricane Center reports Tropical Depression Seven's sustained winds have strengthen to tropical storm strength, allowing the formation of Tropical Storm Fiona.

Fiona has maximum sustained winds of 50 miles per hour and is moving west at 14 miles per hour.

The storm is about 645 miles east of the Leeward Islands.

As mentioned earlier, the forecast track beyond the weekend is highly uncertain. If the storm strengthens quickly and misses the islands to the north, it is more likely to keep moving north and miss the Gulf of Mexico completely. If it stays weaker it will keep moving westward. That will increase the chances that it interacts with the islands or stays south of them. If either of those scenarios occur, it is more likely to keep moving west toward the Gulf of Mexico, and then we'll have to pay it more attention.

September 14 6 p.m.

Tropical Depression Seven is still expected to become Tropical Storm Fiona as it moves west toward the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

At this time it is no threat to Texas, but it still warrants staying casually aware of its forecast until we get more clarity on whether or not it will enter the Gulf of Mexico.

The forecast track beyond the weekend is highly uncertain. If the storm strengthens quickly and misses the islands to the north, it is more likely to keep moving north and miss the Gulf of Mexico completely. If it stays weaker it will keep moving westward. That will increase the chances that it interacts with the islands or stays south of them. If either of those scenarios occur, it is more likely to keep moving west toward the Gulf of Mexico, and then we'll have to pay it more attention.

September 14

Tropical Depression Seven has formed in the Atlantic. It is no threat to Texas at this time, but its future track is uncertain at this time.

RADAR MAPS:

Southeast Texas

Houston

Harris County

Galveston County

Montgomery/Walker/San Jacinto/Polk/Grimes Counties

Fort Bend/Wharton/Colorado Counties

Brazoria/Matagorda Counties

During hurricane season, remain prepared and make sure you download our ABC13 Houston app !

Comments / 110

Robert Loveless
07-17

This isn't news. This dust comes EVERY... SINGLE... YEAR. And it's been going on for millenia. Some of the Caribbean islands are, in part, built from Saharan dust.

Reply
16
Thomas Yokeley
05-15

love right smack dab in this middle of hurricane alley,I have yet to see anything remotely close to those predictions

Reply(7)
18
Ken Friday
05-19

its not about climate change,but you can call what you want,what its about is its call EOT changes,falling into place with Gods word.

Reply(4)
25

Comments / 0