Special Report

COVID-19: How Cases in the Waco, TX Metro Area Compare to Other Major Metros

Michael Ciaglo / Getty Images News via Getty Images

The U.S. reported over 393,000 new cases of coronavirus over the seven days ending May 3, bringing the total count to more than 80.5 million confirmed cases of COVID-19. There have been more than 986,000 COVID-19-related deaths — the highest death toll of any country.

New cases continue to rise at a steady rate. In the past week, there were an average of 15.6 daily new coronavirus cases per 100,000 Americans — essentially unchanged from the week prior, when there were an average of 12.7 daily new coronavirus cases per 100,000 people.

While new data shows that the risk of contracting COVID-19 is high in almost every part of the country, cities continue to be the sites of major outbreaks and superspreader events. Experts agree that the virus is more likely to spread in group settings where large numbers of people routinely have close contact with one another, such as colleges, nursing homes, bars, and restaurants. Metropolitan areas with a high degree of connectivity between different neighborhoods and a large population may be particularly at-risk.

In the 50 largest metro areas, the incidence of COVID-19 grew at an average rate of 17.9 new cases a day per 100,000 residents in the past week — 20.8% greater than the case growth in all counties outside of metro areas.

The Waco, TX metro area consists of McLennan County and Falls County. As of May 3, there were 23,670.4 confirmed cases of COVID-19 per 100,000 Waco residents, roughly in line with the national rate. For comparison, the U.S. has so far reported 24,960.7 cases per 100,000 Americans nationwide.

The incidence of coronavirus cases depends on a variety of factors and can vary even between neighboring counties. Within the Waco metro area, McLennan County has the highest incidence of COVID-19 cases. As of May 3, there were 23,788.8 cases per 100,000 residents in McLennan County, the most of any county in Waco, yet not too far from the county with the lowest incidence. In Falls County, there were 21,948.8 cases per 100,000 residents — the least of any county in Waco.

In order to slow the spread of COVID-19, city and county governments have ordered the closure of thousands of consumer-facing businesses. These measures have led to widespread job loss and record unemployment. In the Waco metro area, unemployment peaked at 11.1% in April 2020. As of November 2021, the metro area’s unemployment rate was 4.4%.

To determine how the incidence of COVID-19 in the Waco, TX metro area compares to the rest of the country, 24/7 Wall St. compiled and reviewed data from state and local health departments. We ranked metro areas based on the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases per 100,000 residents.To estimate the incidence of COVID-19 at the metropolitan level, we aggregated data from the county level using boundary definitions from the U.S. Census Bureau. Population data used to adjust case and death totals came from the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2019 American Community Survey and are five-year estimates. Unemployment data is from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and is seasonally adjusted.

These are all the counties in Texas where COVID-19 is slowing (and where it’s still getting worse).

FIPS MSA Population Confirmed COVID-19 cases as of May 3 Confirmed COVID-19 cases as of May 3 per 100,000 residents Cumulative COVID-19 deaths as of May 3 Cumulative COVID-19 deaths as of May 3 per 100,000 residents
13140 Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX 395,174 75,426 19,086.8 1,447 366.2
30980 Longview, TX 284,796 55,255 19,401.6 1,331 467.4
46340 Tyler, TX 227,449 45,503 20,005.8 966 424.7
47020 Victoria, TX 99,674 19,998 20,063.4 443 444.4
28660 Killeen-Temple, TX 444,716 90,232 20,289.8 1,202 270.3
43300 Sherman-Denison, TX 131,014 27,128 20,706.2 636 485.4
12420 Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX 2,114,441 455,777 21,555.4 3,579 169.3
45500 Texarkana, TX-AR 149,292 33,059 22,143.9 718 480.9
10180 Abilene, TX 170,669 38,939 22,815.5 887 519.7
26420 Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX 6,884,138 1,586,694 23,048.6 15,945 231.6
36220 Odessa, TX 160,579 37,500 23,353.0 703 437.8
47380 Waco, TX 268,361 63,522 23,670.4 967 360.3
19100 Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX 7,320,663 1,756,133 23,988.7 18,737 255.9
32580 McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX 855,176 206,205 24,112.6 3,902 456.3
48660 Wichita Falls, TX 141,999 34,264 24,129.7 712 501.4
33260 Midland, TX 173,816 42,046 24,189.9 521 299.7
15180 Brownsville-Harlingen, TX 421,666 103,861 24,631.1 2,027 480.7
21340 El Paso, TX 836,062 208,037 24,883.0 3,728 445.9
11100 Amarillo, TX 263,776 65,679 24,899.5 1,280 485.3
18580 Corpus Christi, TX 428,548 110,900 25,878.1 1,835 428.2
17780 College Station-Bryan, TX 258,029 70,157 27,189.6 554 214.7
41700 San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX 2,468,193 681,222 27,600.0 7,851 318.1
31180 Lubbock, TX 316,474 97,109 30,684.7 1,408 444.9
29700 Laredo, TX 273,526 94,121 34,410.3 1,034 378.0
41660 San Angelo, TX 117,986 41,025 34,771.1 553 468.7

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