The Miami Heat and Atlanta Hawks square off for Game 4 at the State Farm Arena on Sunday. With that said, it’s a good time to check out our NBA odds series, which includes our Heat-Hawks prediction, odds, and pick we have laid out below.
Trae Young made the game-winning floater with 4.4 seconds left to give Atlanta its first win in the series, 111-110. The Hawks barely escaped by the skin of their teeth and it took a massive fourth-quarter comeback to finally give them life in these 2022 NBA playoffs. Young finished the game with 24 points and eight assists. They also got a massive boost off the bench from Bogdan Bogdanovic, who scored 18 points with eight rebounds, six assists, and four three-pointers.
Atlanta was able to overcome a furious second-half Heat rally, where Miami stormed back from down 10 late in the second quarter and went up by as much as 16 points late in the third. The Heat had their chance to go up 3-0 in this series after PJ Tucker buried a corner triple with under a minute left. Unfortunately, Ice Trae had one more trick up his sleeve and came up huge in the clutch. Tyler Herro led Miami with 24 points off the bench, while Jimmy Butler and Max Struss scored 20 points apiece.
Here is how Fanduel has set the Heat-Hawks Playoffs NBA odds for this Sunday night NBA matchup.
NBA Playoffs Odds: Heat-Hawks Odds
Miami Heat: -1.5 (-114)
Atlanta Hawks: +1.5 (-106)
Over: 221 (-110)
Under: 221 (-110)
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Why The Heat Could Cover The Spread
If not for Young's game-winning floater, the Heat could have been up 3-0 in this best-of-seven series. Despite losing Game 3, Miami has still been the dominant team in this first-round matchup. They won both games at home in double-figures and held a 16-point lead late in the third in Game 3. This is quite a narrow spread and if the trend continues, Miami could cover it with ease.
The Heat held this no. 2 ranked Hawks offense to an average of 98 points and less than 30 percent shooting from three in Games 1 and 2. Atlanta was much better on their home floor with 111 points, two shy of their regular-season average, and shot 51.2 percent overall from the field and 37.5 percent from three. But they were able to contain Atlanta to just 16 points on 35.3 percent shooting in the third quarter. If the Heat are able to do that for at least two quarters, there's a good chance they come away with the win and cover this two-point spread.
Miami also proved that they can pour it on on the offensive end while playing elite defense. They scored 21 unanswered points in the third quarter through a five-minute stretch to take that 16-point lead.
The Hawks have upgraded Clint Capela to questionable. While this is great for Atlanta, coming off a hyperextended knee, he likely still isn't at full strength.
Why The Hawks Could Cover The Spread
The Hawks finally found their rhythm in Game 3. Save for a poor third quarter, Atlanta scored 97 points and shot a combined 35-of-63 (55.5 percent) in the first, second, and fourth quarters. Nonetheless, despite that, they weren't quite able to cover the 1.5-point spread in Game 3.
Bogdan Bogdanovic has found his stroke from beyond the arc, draining nine three-pointers for the Hawks over the last two games. If he continues his hot streak, this bodes well for Atlanta's chances to tie the series. In addition, Trae Young hasn't particularly shot the ball well in this series. He's averaging just 19.0 points on 37.0 percent shooting, which was skewed by an 8-point, 1-of-12 shooting night in Game 1. He's played much better in Games 2 and 3, but it hasn't been the kind of explosion we saw from him in bunches through last year's playoffs. Give credit to Miami for game planning well on Young. But he should have one of those nights lined up soon and that could come in Game 4.
The Heat are still dealing with injuries to some of their core rotation players. They have listed Bam Adebayo (left quad contusion), Kyle Lowry (left hamstring strain), PJ Tucker (right calf strain), and Caleb Martin (left ankle sprain) as questionable. This is the third game Adebayo has been listed as such, and it doesn't seem like he'll miss time for Miami. Meanwhile, Lowry left in the third period of Friday's game after suffering the injury and did not return. He did sound optimistic he'll be able to suit up for Game 4, so stay tuned for updates on his status.
Speaking of injuries, Clint Capela could come back and give the Hawks a major boost to their front line.
Final Heat-Hawks Prediction & Pick
I'm going with Atlanta on this one. They found their rhythm in Game 3 and Trae Young must be feeling good coming off a game-winning shot. The Heat wouldn't want to deal with a confident Ice Trae and if he has one of those games, they could very well tie this series.
Final Heat-Hawks Prediction & Pick: Hawks: +1.5 (-106)
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