J.D. Vance wins prize of Donald Trump's endorsement; Josh Mandel worked hardest for it

The retirement of U.S. Sen. Rob Portman, a staple of the Ohio Republican establishment in the 21st century, has led to an all-out brass knuckles intraparty brawl among those desperate to succeed him. Though Portman is a well-known and respected figure among Ohioans, GOP candidates have spent over a year soliciting the endorsement of former President Donald Trump, with J.D. Vance finally getting the nod.

This is quite a turn of events from where the party and some of those vying for Trump’s endorsement were just a few years ago when Ohio Gov. John Kasich was one of the last candidates standing in the way of Trump getting the nomination at the RNC Convention in Cleveland in 2016.

Shortly after winning the presidency, President-elect Trump set about remaking the Ohio Republican Party by dismantling Kasich’s network and installing Jane Timken, one of the leading candidates in this year’s Senate race, as party chair. In fact, Timken might have received Trump’s endorsement had she not initially supported U.S. Rep. Anthony Gonzalez in the immediate aftermath of his impeachment vote following the Jan. 6 insurrection, before she reversed course and said he should resign.

In a bit of a twist, Timken did receive the endorsement of Portman.

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Today, however, almost the entire field of contenders is lock step behind the twice-impeached ex-president and they have been fighting among each other to prove how MAGA they are by parroting his talking points. Most of the candidates have at some point flocked to Mar-a-Lago to kiss the ring of Trump in hopes that he would give his blessing and endorsement in the race. This included a group Apprentice-style meeting with the former reality show star in March 2021.

Although Vance received Trump’s much coveted endorsement, it could not have been easy for Trump to give it to him. In 2016, Vance tweeted that Trump was an “idiot” and, in an interview, stated: “I’m a Never Trump guy … I never liked him.” Although he deleted his anti-Trump tweets once he decided to run for the Ohio Senate, the internet (and Trump’s memory of past slights) lasts forever.

After Trump made his endorsement, a 2016 direct message Vance sent to his former Yale Law School roommate was made public on Twitter which will be particularly hard to explain away. In the text, Vance observed that the GOP was the “party of lower-income, lower-educated white people” and that the party needed to offer “those people SOMETHING … or a demagogue would.” He later opined whether Trump was a cynical Nixon or “America’s Hitler.”

It is hard to reconcile how one could go from being so critical of Trump, to working so hard for his endorsement and joyously accepting it a few years later.

Trump’s endorsement of Vance had to be particularly painful for Josh Mandel as perhaps no other Republican worked harder to earn Trump’s nod. The once traditional conservative Republican has mimicked Trump in most every way on social media in an effort to be the Trumpiest of the bunch.

In addition to promoting the “Big Lie” about the 2020 election, Mandel has made a host of racist, xenophobic and bigoted statements throughout the GOP primary campaign. At one point it even appeared he was provoking a physical altercation with another GOP opponent, Mike Gibbons, at a candidate forum. To say he has run a very controversial campaign would be an understatement.

Unfortunately for Mandel, Trump was reluctant to endorse him because he thought Mandel was a “charisma-free weirdo,” the Daily Beast reported.

Although some polls have recently showed Gibbons performing well, it would appear that his campaign has stalled in recent days. Likewise, while Timken received Portman’s support to succeed him (and with it the most endorsements from sitting U.S. senators), she has not been able to stand out in this crowded field.

One candidate who has stood out has been state Sen. Matt Dolan, not because he is leading the field, but because he is the one candidate who has not bent his knee for Trump. Dolan has refused to question the results of the 2020 presidential election and has also solemnly acknowledged the attack on the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021. These small acts are notable in a field supplicating itself to Trump.

Dolan represents a last gasp within the GOP for the traditional Ohio Republican pro-business conservative. But even Dolan has tried to walk a fine line as with a recent television ad he promised to finish Trump’s pet project — the border wall — and ended the ad with a line used many times by Trump throughout his presidency that “without a border, we have no country,” all without ever actually naming Trump.

The winner of the Republican Senate primary will be favored this autumn as Ohio is already a favorable landscape for Republicans to compete in statewide, and midterm elections are difficult historically for the president’s party.

Although a Vance loss in the primary would be personally embarrassing for Trump, unless Dolan is able to pull off a miracle, Trump’s hostile takeover of the Ohio Republican Party will be complete — which could have major implications come November.

While Trump enjoys support among Republicans, the nomination of a Trumpian Senate candidate could provide a needed boost for Democrats in the general election by mobilizing their supporters as well as a significant number of independents who wish to turn the page on the Trump era.

David B. Cohen (@POTUSProf) is a professor of political science and director of the Applied Politics Program at the University of Akron. Robert Alexander (@onuprof) is a professor of political science and founding director of the Institute for Civics and Public Policy at Ohio Northern University.