Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official awards predictions for the upcoming Oscars and Emmys ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis; Awards Circuit Column, a weekly analysis dissecting the trends and contenders by television editor Michael Schneider (for Emmys) and Davis (for Oscars); Awards Circuit Podcast, a weekly interview series with talent and an expert roundtable discussion; and Awards Circuit Video analyzes various categories and contenders by Variety's leading awards pundits. Variety's unmatched coverage gives its readership unbeatable exposure in print and online, as well as provide inside reports on all the contenders in this year's awards season races.
To see all the latest predictions, of all the categories, in one place, visit THE EMMYS COLLECTIVE
Visit each category, per the individual awards show from THE EMMYS HUB
To see old predictions and commentary, click the EMMY PREDICTIONS ARCHIVES
For film awards predictions go toTHE OSCARS HUB
Popular on Variety
UPDATED: August 4, 2022
2022 EMMYS PREDICTIONS:
OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES
AWARDS PREDICTION COMMENTARY:
Triple-mentioned this year as a writer, producer and lead actor for “Only Murders in the Building,” Steve Martin’s only win, for writing, came over 50 years ago in 1969. Playing former TV star Charles-Haden Savage in the Hulu comedy displays his signature physical comedy style and sharp humor. Likely to get the veteran vote of the TV Academy, he could be a major spoiler in the race.
In many ways, Martin Short is the heart and soul of “Only Murders in the Building,” landing some of the best one-liners, along with his undeniable chemistry with Steve Martin and Selena Gomez. With 14 career noms, two of which came this year, he’s never won for acting. There could be members more passionate for him, leading to a surprising “win switcharoo” seen with past winners such as Olivia Colman over co-star Emma Corrin (“The Crown”).
Jason Sudeikis returns to the race after picking up four noms last year for “Ted Lasso,” and two wins for comedy series (as an executive producer) and his performance as the titular character in the Apple TV+ series. With trophies from Critics Choice, Golden Globes and SAG Awards, it might be foolish to count him out for a consecutive win. However, none of those ceremonies included his competitor Bill Hader, leaving the outcome more fluid.
Read more: Variety’s Awards Circuit Emmys Predictions Hub
Bill Hader has an astounding 25 career Emmy noms across multiple categories, including five this year — four of which are for HBO’s “Barry.” When the Emmy voters are in love, they let it be known. With two wins already for his turn as Barry Berkman/ Barry Block, this year he also received a nom for his guest spot on “Curb Your Enthusiasm.” That points to a lot of support in the acting peer group
After a long hiatus, Emmy winner Donald Glover returns as Earnest “Earn” Marks in the penultimate season of FX’s “Atlanta.” With 11 noms to his name and two wins for actor and director in 2017, he may be able to rally support for inclusive choices in the comedy realm, something that’s helping other contenders, including Quinta Brunson and Issa Rae. But was the hiatus too long for him to get past this killer competition?
Nicholas Hoult beat out some considerable odds to get past establishment choices including Anthony Anderson and Don Cheadle to land his nom for “The Great.” Playing Peter III in the Hulu series, Hoult’s introductory recognition will likely propel him to more mentions on future awards circuits. However, his nom seems to be the reward this time around.
The complete television awards season calendar is linked here.
Read more: Variety’s Awards Circuit Oscars Predictions Hub
The 74th Primetime Emmy Awards will take place on Monday, Sept. 12, and air on NBC.
2021 category winner: Jason Sudeikis, “Ted Lasso” (Apple TV+)
ALL AWARDS CONTENDERS AND RANKINGS:
AWARDS CATEGORY HISTORY (Lead Actor Comedy)
The Primetime Emmy Awards, better known simply as the Emmys, is television’s most prestigious artistic award. Many records have been held for wins and nominations in the near eight decades.
For wins: Four actors have won the most prizes in this category, with four in all of Emmy history – Michael J. Fox, Kelsey Grammer, Carroll O’Connor and Jim Parsons. Fox and O’Connor have won three consecutive years. Except for Fox, Grammer (“Frasier”), O’Connor (“All in the Family”) and Parsons (“The Big Bang Theory”) won for the same television series. Fox won three for “Family Ties” and the other for “Spin City.” Four men have three times – Don Adams, John Lithgow, Tony Shalhoub and Dick Van Dyke.
For nominations: Ted Danson has the most nominations ever in this category with 14 (winning twice for “Cheers”). Alan Alda and Kelsey Grammer are next in line with 11, while Michael J. Fox, Carroll O’Connor and Tony Shalhoub have eight each.
John Goodman, Matt LeBlanc and Hal Linden have the most nominations without ever winning for lead actor in a comedy series. Goodman (“Roseanne”) and Linden (“Barney Miller”) were all nominated for the same series. LeBlanc’s nods are split between “Friends” (3) and “Episodes” (4).
“Cheers” and “M*A*S*H” are the leading series with nominations in this category, with 11 with “Frasier” and “The Odd Couple” (1970-1975) nabbing 10. NBC has won this category the most for any network with 26, while CBS and ABC have 19 and 11 wins. Amazon Prime Video is the first and only streaming platform to win this category for Jeffrey Tambor (“Transparent”) in two consecutive years.
2022 Primetime Emmy Awards Predictions
- Outstanding Drama Series
- Outstanding Comedy Series
- Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series
- Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited Series or Movie
- Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited Series or Movie
- Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited Series or Movie
- Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Limited Series or Movie
- Outstanding Directing for a Limited Series or Anthology Series or Movie
- Outstanding Writing for a Limited Series, Movie, or Dramatic Special
- Outstanding Competition Program
- Outstanding Variety Talk Series
2022 Creative Arts Emmys Predictions
- Outstanding Television Movie
- Outstanding Guest Actor in a Drama Series
- Outstanding Guest Actress in a Drama Series
- Outstanding Guest Actor in a Comedy Series
- Outstanding Guest Actress in a Comedy Series
- Outstanding Reality Host
- Outstanding Directing for a Variety Series
- Outstanding Writing for a Variety Series
- Outstanding Directing for a Variety Special
- Outstanding Writing for a Variety Special
- Outstanding Animated Program
- Outstanding Short Form Animated Program
- Outstanding Voice-Over Performance
- Outstanding Narrator
- Outstanding Structured Program
- Outstanding Unstructured Program
- Outstanding Documentary or Nonfiction Series
- Outstanding Documentary or Nonfiction Special
- Outstanding Documentary Filmmaking
- Outstanding Hosted Nonfiction Series or Special
- Outstanding Main Title Design
- Outstanding Main Title Theme Music
- Outstanding Music for Series
- Outstanding Music for Limited Series
- Outstanding Music and Lyrics
- Outstanding Music Supervision
About the Primetime Emmy Awards (Emmys)
The Primetime Emmy Awards, better known as the Emmys, are given out by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences (ATAS). Since 1949, the awards have recognized excellence in American primetime television programming. They are divided into three classes – Primetime Emmy Awards, the Primetime Creative Arts Emmy Awards (honors artisan achievements), and the Primetime Engineering Emmy Awards (recognizes significant engineering and technological contributions). The typical eligibility period is between June 1 and May 31 of any given year. The Television Academy comprises over 25,000 members, representing 30 professional peer groups, including performers, directors, producers, art directors and various artisans and executives.
- The 74th Emmy Awards will take place on Monday, Sept. 12, and air on NBC.