Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official awards predictions for the upcoming Oscars and Emmys ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis; Awards Circuit Column, a weekly analysis dissecting the trends and contenders by television editor Michael Schneider (for Emmys) and Davis (for Oscars); Awards Circuit Podcast, a weekly interview series with talent and an expert roundtable discussion; and Awards Circuit Video analyzes various categories and contenders by Variety's leading awards pundits. Variety's unmatched coverage gives its readership unbeatable exposure in print and online, as well as provide inside reports on all the contenders in this year's awards season races.
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UPDATED: August 19, 2022
2022 EMMYS PREDICTIONS:
OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES
AWARDS PREDICTION COMMENTARY:
Netflix’s record-breaking “Squid Game” landed a respectable nomination haul, and its star Lee Jung-jae has been steamrolling the competition on the awards circuit. Walking into phase two voting with a Critics Choice and SAG Award is significant. Lee would also be the first Asian in the category and the fourth of Asian descent (after Riz Ahmed, Darren Criss and Archie Panjabi).
With three noms this year for producing, directing and starring as Marty Byrde in the final season of Netflix’s “Ozark,” Jason Bateman has garnered 13 career Emmy noms. With a sole win for directing in 2019, he’s yet to walk away with an acting prize. Interestingly, six of the previous 10 lead actor drama victors over the past decade have won for their final seasons. Perhaps Bateman can continue that trend.
The intensity of Brian Cox’s character Logan Roy was elevated significantly in the third season of “Succession,” and Cox took full advantage of his opportunities, landing his fourth career nom in the process. With the series leading the Emmys tally with 25, there’s an excellent chance that one of the series’ two co-leads could walk away with the trophy. He won a supporting actor trophy in 2001.
Read more: Variety’s Awards Circuit Emmys Predictions Hub.
There has been a palpable groundswell of support and renewed respect for Bob Odenkirk, especially as AMC’s “Better Call Saul” is nearing its end. He’s picked up 10 nominations overall for the series, but no wins. Part two of the series’ final season airs during final voting, which could push him to the forefront to win his first acting Emmy.
With an impressive comedy career that includes “Parks and Recreation,” Adam Scott landed his first Emmy nom for his dramatic work in Apple TV+’s “Severance” — managing to get past perceived Emmy staples such as Sterling K. Brown. Scott’s inclusion points to a passionate fanbase for the dystopian series, which landed 14 noms. If the show continues to pick up steam, conceivably, he can mimic the success of Damian Lewis for the first season of “Homeland.”
Jeremy Strong picked up his second nom for his portrayal of Kendall Roy, the second oldest son of Waystar head, Logan, on the HBO series. After winning the statuette in 2020, the Yale School of Drama grad became the subject of a New Yorker profile, which was heavily criticized by his colleagues in the industry, feeling it was an unfair depiction of a man dedicated to his craft. That support could continue to spill over for a second win.
The complete television awards season calendar is linked here.
Read more: Variety’s Awards Circuit Oscars Predictions Hub
The 74th Primetime Emmy Awards will take place on Monday, Sept. 12, and air on NBC.
2021 category winner: Josh O’Connor, “The Crown” (Netflix)
ALL AWARDS CONTENDERS AND RANKINGS:
AWARDS CATEGORY HISTORY (Lead Actor Drama)
The Primetime Emmy Awards, better known simply as the Emmys, is television’s most prestigious artistic award. Many records have been held for wins and nominations in the near eight decades.
For wins: Bryan Cranston (AMC’s “Breaking Bad”) and Dennis Franz (ABC’s “NYPD Blue”) hold the record for the most wins in this category with four, with the former winning three consecutively and the latter two. Five actors have won three times — Bill Cosby, Peter Falk, James Gandolfini, James Spader and Robert Young.
Four actors have been nominated in this category eight times – Raymond Burr, Peter Falk, Dennis Franz, and Jon Hamm. James Garner has the second most nods with seven. Michael C. Hall, Hugh Laurie, Martin Sheen and Kiefer Sutherland have the most nominations at six, without winning (although Sheen has won an Emmy for guest actor in a comedy series for “Murphy Brown” in 1994).
“NYPD Blue” has the leading series to have nominations in this category with 14, followed by “St. Elsewhere” at 10 and “Columbo,” “Law & Order” and “Mad Men” at eight apiece.
2022 Primetime Emmy Awards Predictions
- Outstanding Drama Series
- Outstanding Comedy Series
- Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series
- Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited Series or Movie
- Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited Series or Movie
- Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited Series or Movie
- Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Limited Series or Movie
- Outstanding Directing for a Limited Series or Anthology Series or Movie
- Outstanding Writing for a Limited Series, Movie, or Dramatic Special
- Outstanding Competition Program
- Outstanding Variety Talk Series
2022 Creative Arts Emmys Predictions
- Outstanding Television Movie
- Outstanding Guest Actor in a Drama Series
- Outstanding Guest Actress in a Drama Series
- Outstanding Guest Actor in a Comedy Series
- Outstanding Guest Actress in a Comedy Series
- Outstanding Reality Host
- Outstanding Directing for a Variety Series
- Outstanding Writing for a Variety Series
- Outstanding Directing for a Variety Special
- Outstanding Writing for a Variety Special
- Outstanding Animated Program
- Outstanding Short Form Animated Program
- Outstanding Voice-Over Performance
- Outstanding Narrator
- Outstanding Structured Program
- Outstanding Unstructured Program
- Outstanding Documentary or Nonfiction Series
- Outstanding Documentary or Nonfiction Special
- Outstanding Documentary Filmmaking
- Outstanding Hosted Nonfiction Series or Special
- Outstanding Main Title Design
- Outstanding Main Title Theme Music
- Outstanding Music for Series
- Outstanding Music for Limited Series
- Outstanding Music and Lyrics
- Outstanding Music Supervision
About the Primetime Emmy Awards (Emmys)
The Primetime Emmy Awards, better known as the Emmys, are given out by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences (ATAS). Since 1949, the awards have recognized excellence in American primetime television programming. They are divided into three classes – Primetime Emmy Awards, the Primetime Creative Arts Emmy Awards (honors artisan achievements), and the Primetime Engineering Emmy Awards (recognizes significant engineering and technological contributions). The typical eligibility period is between June 1 and May 31 of any given year. The Television Academy comprises over 25,000 members, representing 30 professional peer groups, including performers, directors, producers, art directors and various artisans and executives.
- The 74th Emmy Awards will take place on Monday, Sept. 12, and air on NBC.
2023 Academy Awards Predictions
- Best Picture
- Best Director
- Best Actor
- Best Actress
- Best Supporting Actor
- Best Supporting Actress
- Best Original Screenplay
- Best Adapted Screenplay
- Best Animated Feature
About the Academy Awards (Oscars)
The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Seventeen branches are represented within the nearly 10,000-person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.
- The 95th Oscars ceremony at the Dolby Theatre and televised live on Sunday, March 12, 2022, on ABC