Joel Sherman

Joel Sherman

MLB

Aaron Judge optimistic turning down Yankees’ offer will pay off in long haul

Aaron Judge is announced in a different way at home by Paul Olden and he is cheered louder and longer than any of his Yankees teammates. 

Judge now lockers in the space of prestige long occupied by Brett Gardner. Before a pitch of the 2022 season had been thrown, manager Aaron Boone stated what has become obvious: “He’s probably the biggest leader in that room.” 

And it’s not because of his 6-foot-7 frame. Judge’s vaccine status might be in question, but his status in the Yankee Stadium home clubhouse is not. 

He is the best player on the team. The most important player on the roster. The most marketable player for the most historic franchise. He is a symbol for withstanding the Bronx cauldron and thriving — and not just in the batter’s box. 

He is the most obvious heir to Derek Jeter. The homegrown face of the team — and maybe the sport. He’s assiduously vanilla in public comment, admired in his clubhouse and beloved from the Judge’s Chambers to the high-priced moat behind home plate. 

Oh yeah, he’s also one of the 10 best active baseball players in the world. 

The Yankees felt they were recognizing all of this in their negotiations over a contract extension for Judge. Above and beyond, in their view, was accepting his $21 million arbitration request for 2022 and then a tacking on seven years at $213.5 million, which would have made Judge the second-highest-paid outfielder in history, per year, behind just Mike Trout. 

Aaron Judge Robert Sabo

But the Judge camp, after considering all the tangibles and intangibles, the baseball and the marketing, wondered why he couldn’t be paid through the same age (38) that Trout will be by the Angels, and for a similar amount. 

These were two rational actors. The Yankees all but ignored the five-year, $124 extension beginning in 2024 that the Guardians agreed to with Jose Ramirez, a player similar to Judge in performance and age. That was the Yankees appreciating the difference between Cleveland and New York and the difference in local and national impact between Ramirez and Judge. 

But their stop sign for average value on the seven-year offer was $30.5 million, north of Mookie Betts’ deal with the Dodgers and enough to make Judge the second-highest-paid among outfielders, but well south of Trout’s $35.54 million average. After all, Judge was not negotiating with the leverage of being a free agent. As opposed to the deals the Dodgers and Angeles made with Betts and Trout, the Yankees would be getting no seasons in Judge’s twenties (he will turn 30 on April 26). There are concerns about Judge staying healthy, concern about how someone his size will age. So their offer would have taken him to 37. 

A lot of folks surely will not see turning down generational wealth as rational. Judge is risking a guaranteed $213.5 million to make how much more while gambling he will stay healthy and productive in 2022. 

But Judge is like Jeter or Mariano Rivera. He is built optimistically. Like them, he does not entertain negative thoughts. He is not imagining breaking down. Judge is envisioning being the MVP and leading the Yankees to a title and being able to ask for more come the offseason than he was offered now. 

Aaron Judge has emerged as the Yankees’ leader. Charles Wenzelberg/New York Post

And remember, there is next offseason. Neither team nor player was facing the threat of this marriage ending now. Both sides insisted they still want a long-term union. Judge played his part by also saying when he next negotiates he will be able to talk to all 30 teams. We can certainly eliminate a bunch today — hello Cincinnati, Cleveland and Kansas City. But the leverage will come if the Giants, or especially the Mets or Red Sox, get involved. 

After the 1998 season, the Yankees were lowballing Bernie Williams until they believed he was on the doorstep of leaving for the Red Sox. That moved George Steinbrenner to inflate his bid by about 50 percent to retain the free-agent center fielder. 

Don’t forget also that by the end of this season, Judge will have earned around $40 million. Short of catastrophic injury, what is the least he will be offered after the season? It won’t be less than Ramirez got, for example. 

Aaron Judge Charles Wenzelberg/New York Post

There is risk. Of course, there is. But Judge has built-in financial protection plus a belief that his value is such to the Yankees on and off the field, hitting second and at the box office, playing right and having a section nearby dedicated to him, that he should be paid for longer and for a larger amount than the Yankees were willing to offer now. His self-confidence is baked into why he is so good, why he can handle all that comes with being a Yankee. 

And as he begins the journey toward trying to prove he is worth what he asked for, and more, his biggest fan and supporter in that effort will be those who want a championship in 2022 as much as he does. 

Yep, Hal Steinbrenner and the Yankees organization.