NL West preview: San Diego Padres

SAN DIEGO PADRES

• 2021 finish: 79-83 (3^rd in NL West)
• Manager: Bob Melvin (1^st season)
• Leading the front office: A.J. Preller, president of baseball operations (8^th season)

DOLLARS AND SENSE

• Highest-paid player: 3B Manny Machado ($30 million in 2022)
• Top returning position player: SS Fernando Tatis Jr. (6.6 WAR in 2021, per baseball-reference.com)
• Top returning starting pitcher: RHP Joe Musgrove (3.5 WAR)
• Top returning reliever: RHP Craig Stammen (1.5 WAR)

ROSTER WATCH

• Key additions: LHP Sean Manaea (trade), DH Luke Voit (trade), RHP Nick Martinez (free agent), RHP Robert Suarez (free agent), RHP Luis Garcia (trade), UT Matt Beaty (trade), LHP Ray Kerr (trade), C Jorge Alfaro (trade), OF Nomar Mazara (minors).
• Key subtractions: OF Tommy Pham (free agent), RHP Mark Melancon (free agent), 2B Adam Frazier (trade), RHP Daniel Hudson (free agent), LHP Matt Strahm (free agent), RHP Trey Wingenter (free agent), RHP Keone Kela (free agent), OF Jake Marisnick (free agent), RHP Dan Altavilla (free agent), LHP Ross Detwiler (free agent), RHP Vince Velasquez (free agent).
• Baseball America top-100 prospect(s): SS CJ Abrams (9), OF Robert Hassell III (30), C Luis Campusano (53).

KEEP AN EYE ON

• An underachieving team in 2021, the Padres were dealt a blow on the first day of spring training when SS Fernando Tatis Jr. reported to camp with a fractured wrist. Tatis led the NL with 42 homers, finished third in NL MVP voting and was already contending with an ailing shoulder that forced him in out and of the lineup in 2021. He opted against shoulder surgery but will now miss roughly three months due to his wrist, leaving the Padres to turn to Ha-seong Kim as the first option to fill-in. Their top prospect, CJ Abrams, is also a shortstop but has been limited to just 348 plate appearances in the minors due to his own issues with injuries, as well as losing the entire 2020 minor league season to COVID-19.
• A year after their pitching fell apart, the Padres are expecting a boost with a trade for LHP Sean Manaea. RHP Mike Clevinger returns from Tommy John surgery, although he will miss at least one start with a sore knee. RHP Yu Darvish also appears healthy after hip issues sapped him of effectiveness after the All-Star break. LHP Blake Snell finished 2021 strong and LHP Adrian Morejón and RHP Michel Báez are expected to return from their own elbow reconstructions before the All-Star break to lengthen a depth chart that includes adding RHP Nick Martinez following a breakout year in Japan. Perhaps the biggest boost could arrive in the form of LHP MacKenzie Gore, who under the tutelage of new pitching coach Ruben Niebla appears to have regained the form he had in 2019 as the top pitching prospect in the game.
• A year removed from their first playoff berth since 2006, the Padres offense — particularly 3B Manny Machado (.836 OPS), RF Wil Myers (.768 OPS), CF Trent Grisham (.740 OPS), C Austin Nola (.716 OPS) 1B Eric Hosmer (.732) and UT Jurickson Profar (.649 OPS) — took significant steps backward. As much as Luke Voit (.764 OPS) could provide some oomph to an offense that will be without Tatis to start the year, the front office is counting on veteran manager Bob Melvin as perhaps its biggest acquisition of the offseason.

PECOTA PROJECTION

• 90.4 wins