Boston Celtics Mailbag: Jayson Tatum All-NBA odds, is Daniel Theis long-term answer at backup center, crunch time concerns, best first round opponent

Boston Celtics forward Jayson Tatum, second from left, drives to the basket as, from left to right, Denver Nuggets center DeMarcus Cousins, guard Austin Rivers and center Nikola Jokic defend in the second half of an NBA basketball game Sunday, March 20, 2022, in Denver. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

We’re running a weekly mailbag during the Celtics season. If you have questions about the Celtics or NBA, email brobb@masslive.com or tweet @briantrobb

Hello Brian. What kind of offensive/defensive counters you think need to be made to zones to combat them before & during the playoffs based on what happened (Wednesday) night? & which teams you think they prefer they face in round 1/2 if they can set it up that way depending on outcome? — Eddy FB

The offensive counters to zones are going to be about shotmaking first and foremost against a team like Miami. The Celtics went 29 percent from 3 in the matchup and no one outside of Jaylen Brown had a good shooting night from beyond the arc. Getting out in transition will help with this issue but ultimately it’s going to come down to patience and passing to work a zone like that over and over and force them out of it. These Celtics have shown the ability to do it at times during the past two months but the challenge will be greater against an elite defense like Miami especially without a lob threat like Rob Williams.

As far as the first round goes, I think the ideal opponent is the Cavs based on how they are struggling/their injuries. However, they look destined for the play-in games so it’s not even clear if they are a lock to make it. Chicago and Toronto are a toss up in my mind as opponents, the Celtics have a strong talent edge over both but I don’t expect those to be an easy series with Rob Williams sidelined. Still, I’d take either of them over rolling the dice with Brooklyn. If Celtics don’t keep their foot on the gas for all five games left in regular season, they can pretty easily allow themselves to stick in the No. 3 or 4 seed, securing a first round matchup with either Bulls or Raptors.

Would you like to see the Celtics get another lob threat to go with Rob so the team isn’t running him into the ground over the course of his contract. — Carl C

The Daniel Theis lob party wasn’t enough for you Wednesday night? I do think that a reliable backup center is going to be a must during Williams’ tenure due to his durability issue but it feels like Theis could be that guy right? Ime Udoka pushed hard on Williams with his playing time this year which was somewhat valuable in figuring out what the team could get from him after Brad Stevens protected him for years from a minutes standpoint. With Theis locked up for two more years on a guaranteed deal and him fitting in well from a defensive perspective thus far, the guess here is he remains the primary alternative in that role. As Udoka trusts him more, that should allow the head coach to trim down Williams’ minutes and prevent the kind of wear and tear issues that have surfaced. You will just need to lower your lob expectations.

When will this team start to hit crunch time free throws? So many wasted points — Michael K

Surprisingly, the Celtics rank second in the NBA at the free throw line, shooting 87 percent in crunch time situations over 33 games. That still hasn’t helped them from being one of the worst clutch teams in the NBA this year (12-21 in those games) but free throw shooting really hasn’t been a big problem in that regard.

Are we getting Beal? — Jovian K

It wouldn’t be a Celtics Mailbag without a Beal question. Still betting no but check back after the postseason.

Hey B-Robb! Do you think the late game woes in crunch time are still a cause for concern? In other words, do you think the C’s have matured in that area enough to the point that they will be more successful in the playoffs? — Matt K

It’s hard not to worry about this area looking at the way Boston has lost their past three games. The shorthanded loss in Toronto is a separate category given their personnel but the team’s woes on both ends of the floor all year long have not faded a ton even in the midst of their 24-6 run. Boston has won some close games during that stretch (Brooklyn, Denver, Charlotte) but the vast majority of those wins have been blowouts with meaningless minutes to close out the fourth quarter. Meanwhile, when the games have gotten close, the losses late have been just as numerous as the wins (Miami, Dallas, Detroit).

I think offense remains the biggest concern in this area and there are no tell tale signs yet that this group has matured enough to get over the hump in that regard. The 78.7 offensive rating in clutch situations over the past 15 games tells the story in this regard. Double teams are going to keep coming Jayson Tatum’s way and this group needs to go through their offensive progressions enough for high-quality looks time and time again. They have a history of getting sped up in these moments as well as settling and that’s just not going to fly against the East competition. In all honesty though, Boston’s best chance based on how their season has gone is simply making crunch time irreverent whenever possible.

Do you think Tatum will make the 1st Team? With Embiid and Jokic almost definitely not both making it because of how the voting works, and Lebron falling off any MVP cases and failing, does Tatum have a real chance at that achievement? — Braeden S

LeBron James is certainly leaving the door open by missing some time during these final last two weeks as the Lakers slide out of the play-in tournament. I still feel like he may get it more due to his legacy than anything else but Tatum could do a lot for himself by pushing the Celtics up to the No. 1 or No. 2 spot in the final week-plus of the season here against elite competition. Kevin Durant has to be considered in the mix as well but the numbers of games he’s missed all year due to his knee injury bodes in Tatum’s favor. DeMar DeRozan has been a force for the Bulls but their freefall down the East standings can’t be ignored either. My bet right now is there will be enough of a split vote between that trio that Tatum finishes on the second team but a strong run over these final five games changes that in a hurry. In all honesty, he should be first team since his defense has been worlds better than any of those other candidates.

Please send any questions about the Celtics or NBA for a future mailbag to brobb@masslive.com or tweet @briantrobb

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