"Snow in late March? Paul, that's simply outrageous!" I agree, by the way. Mother Nature needs to be medicated, especially in March, when huge north-south temperature contrasts can whip up powerful storms, high winds, blizzards, floods and tornadoes - sometimes all in the same day.
Storm Meteogram. Rain mixes with wet snow tomorrow before changing to all snow Wednesday night with a coating of slush in the metro. Mercifully, on our patented nuisance-plowable-crippling snowfall rating scale (one I borrowed from my favorite meteorology professor) this should wind up in the nuisance zone for the Twin Cities, with potentially plowable amounts for far northern Minnesota and a chunk of Wisconsin that is closer to the storm track. Most of the precipitation with this next storm will fall as rain; temperatures aloft are (just) warm enough for liquid precipitation for much of central and southern Minnesota, and some half inch plus amounts are possible. How much snow?
3km NOAA NAM Model. NOAA's high-resolution NAM prints out a coating for the metro, with a few inches for parts of central and northern Minnesota and central and northern Wisconsin, where Winter Weather Advisories are in effect.
European Model. Inga says hi, by the way. ECMWF is consistent with NOAA's models, showing a coating to 1" of slush for the metro, with more from near Windom and Alexandria into northern Minnesota, where the plows may have to be called up. Note the band of predicted heavy snow for parts of central and northeastern Wisconsin as well, with some 6"+ amounts. Could things shift? Absolutely, but the odds are pretty small.
A Reason To Keep Going. All weather models consistently show a rerun of spring next week with daytime highs (consistently) within a few degrees of 50. A few 60-degree highs are possible by the second week of April.
In spite of slushy headlines, spring is coming, however tentatively. The transition from winter to summer is always tortured - Mother Nature never moves in a straight line. But no tournament storms this time around, just dribs and drabs of slush for the metro, but nothing to panic over. Take it easy out there!
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