CHARLOTTE, N.C. — It’s been a season of beckoning promise for RJ Barrett — the only significant thing Knicks fans can cling to amid this season of darkness.
But before it’s considered a fait accompli Barrett has earned a maximum rookie contract extension worth up to $181 million over five years with his dogged, attack-the-rim game, a deeper look at his declining efficiency numbers are in order.
Over the last 12 contests entering Wednesday’s matchup with the Hornets, Barrett, playing the first 82-game season of his career, was shooting just 39 percent overall — 30 percent from 3 despite averaging 24 points.
His shooting percentage had dipped to 41 percent, which ranked 105th in the league for players with the minimum required number of shots. (Julius Randle was 104th — which speaks to why the Knicks were 11 games under .500 entering play, having clinched a losing season.)
More alarming regarding Barrett’s efficiency is looking at his numbers recently when games are on the line. The 21-year-old appeared gassed against the Hawks on Tuesday, putting together a dreadful second half, when he shot 3 of 13 with three turnovers.
In the last three second halves of games, Barrett combined to shoot 9 of 38 from the field (23.6 percent) with six turnovers. Barrett got another crack at it Wednesday in Charlotte near his old college stomping grounds of Duke.
Last season, Knicks coach Tom Thibodeau talked repeatedly the best part of Randle’s gaudy numbers was that it affected winning. As complimentary as Thibodeau has been regarding Barrett’s progress as an elite bull-to-the-basket scorer, the winning element hasn’t been part of his résumé at 30-42.
“RJ’s a volume shooter, which is an issue,’’ one NBA coach said. “Players who are volume shooters score. And he’s very talented but he shot the ball better last year. The issue is defenses will never guard him as a shooter until he illustrates much more consistency over time. That lack of consistency negates the all-important spacing.’’
Barrett is close to finishing this season with a 20-point scoring average. Through 61 games, Barrett was averaging 19.8 points, but his 3-point percentage (34.9 from 40.1) and effective FG percentage (47 percent from 49.9) are each down from a season ago. The latter analytic measures 2-point and 3-point efficiency in one number. In Barrett’s defense, he’s played without a capable point guard.
If the Knicks don’t offer him a max extension by October’s deadline, Barrett’s agent, Bill Duffy, may turn to a lesser pitch and try the 2023 restricted free agency route. The Knicks still are in control, able to match an even more expensive max offer if it comes from another team. But by the summer of 2023, the Knicks also will have better read on Barrett’s star value than they will this October.
Barrett, whose durability is unquestioned, has also been an excellent rebounding guard, grabbing 13 boards against Atlanta and averaging 5.9 on the season, while being a decent-enough defender, often facing the opponent’s toughest wing. Playmaking (2.9 assists) still is a work in progress.
“A max extension is a tough call because physically he is gifted and has the capability of being extremely good on the defensive end,’’ the NBA coach said. “The two things that matter most now is who is he playing with and his attitude towards making the right play. But if your volume shooter isn’t efficient, it doesn’t bode well for the team as a whole.’’
Against Atlanta, Barrett got to 30 points by going in for a layup in the final seconds down by eight points — the Hawks content not to guard him. But his 10th 30-point night this season showed a line of 9 of 25 shooting, 1 of 7 from 3, 11 of 17 from the free-throw line and five turnovers.
The Hawks pulled away in the final minutes as Trae Young, who rang up 45 points, and Bogdan Bogdanovic got red hot and Barrett faded, showing he’s still an unpolished gem.
“I feel like they just knew what they were doing,’’ Barrett said. “They went to specific things and they made shots. They went to their two guys that were hot and they closed the game out.’’
Ever the optimist, Barrett still took something out of the loss to Young’s Hawks that has all but eliminated the Knicks from postseason contention.
“Definitely shouldn’t have had 45 but it was 3-1, the series this year,’’ Barrett said. “So overall we did a good job. But today was a tough one for sure.’’
