Soccer's next international break is on the horizon and it will determine the United States men's national team's 2022 World Cup fate. The window has the last three matches of the qualifying cycle. The opener is maybe the biggest match of the qualifying cycle: the USMNT's trip to Mexico to take on El Tri in Estadio Azteca on March 24 (a match you can catch on Paramount+).
The USMNT follow that up with a home match against Panama, and close things out with a trip to Costa Rica. If the USMNT can take care of business they'll cruise to World Cup qualification. The Americans sit second in the Concacaf qualifying group with 21 points, tied with Mexico, and four points behind first-place Canada. But more importantly the two teams have a four-point cushion ahead of fourth-place Panama. Top three qualify automatically while fourth place goes into the inter-continental playoff.
Given all that, this should have been a relatively straightforward window. But,injuries have complicated things for the U.S. With Weston Mckennie sidelined, Gio Reyna going down again and both Zack Steffen and Matt Turner hurt in goal, there are tons of questions about who will even suit up for the squad. So, we've got our group of USMNT experts (CBS Sports' Mike Goodman, Charles Booth and Roger Gonzalez) together to talk through who should play in these all-important matches for the USMNT.
Let's start at the back and work our way forward.
1. Who is even going to play in goal?
Charles Booth: With injuries to Matt Turner and Zack Steffen, choices are thin at this position for Gregg Berhalter. Steffen especially is a concern as he missed the last round of World Cup Qualifying due to a back injury before now being ruled out with a shoulder injury. It's quite concerning and even if Steffen is available, starting these matches with no training or game time this year would be a risk. Luckily for Berhalter, there may be a new starter at Nottingham Forest with a familiar name in Ethan Horvath.
Remembered for relieving Steffen due to an injury suffered in the Nations League final, Horvath made good saves in that match to win a trophy over Mexico and has continued that form both in the Championship and FA Cup for Forest. With the other names on the radar being Sean Johnson and Gabriel Slonina (who have a combined number of nine caps), I'd much rather lean on Horvath in must-win matches especially when the road begins in Azteca.
Roger Gonzalez: Horvath makes a ton of sense because of how familiar he is with the team, the system and Berhalter. Sure, he barely plays for Nottingham Forest, but Steffen also barely plays for Manchester City. That lack of playing time won't play a factor. Another name I would keep an eye on is Johnson, who Chuck mentioned above. He won the MLS Cup with NYCFC and was called into the team for the last batch of qualifiers. He's athletic, full of energy and could get the job done.
Michael Goodman: I guess having goalkeeping depth is nothing new for the American program. But it's still odd to think that the USMNT could be on their third string keeper at Azteca and be starting the player with possibly the most iconic moments for this team in the past five years or so. It's not every day you come off the bench and make a last-minute penalty save against your biggest rivals to win a trophy. I guess when you look at the list of available players it's hard to see anybody else starting. Although now with Turner on his way to Arsenal, it does make you wonder about whether some good Horvath performances might put him in the mix with the top two, since he'll be the only one getting regular minutes. Of course, keeper isn't the only place where the team is having injury challenges.
2. How should the USMNT replace McKennie?
RG: It's an interesting question because he is not easily replaceable. Nobody is going to come in and offer what Weston does in attack in terms of balls in the air. He's brilliant at it, but nobody else at that position offers that. My thought would be to increase the role of Yunus Musah and let him sit a bit higher up. He has the speed to get back, and we've seen that with Valencia. Playing Tyler Adams in the middle with Musah a bit higher up, and then you can add in another player who can stay centrally for where Musah has been playing, you are set. A guy like Kellyn Acosta could be that, but in terms of generating in attack, I'd put Musah in his spot.
CB: I'd agree that Acosta is the best option to come into the midfield three, at least for the first match against Mexico, as he solves a few issues. Providing great delivery from set plays will be an upgrade compared to what Christian Pulisic has offered while partnering Acosta and Adams allows everyone else to be more adventurous without hampering the defense. But in the other matches, I'd prefer someone who tries things and drives the ball up the pitch which is a great opportunity to get another look at what Luca De La Torre can do. He looked good playing on the front foot vs. Honduras and while he's not a goal threat, his play helps push others forward especially with how the wing backs attack under Berhalter.
MG: I confess to also being a bit De La Torre curious. Berhalter has been searching for a midfielder who can confidently move the ball up field for basically his entire tenure in charge of the USMNT. Sometimes that's resulted in flirtations with pass-first guys who sit deep like the San Jose Earthquake's Jackson Yueill. De La Torre is definitely a ball progressor though he does it more with his skill carrying it forward than anything else. I think if he can seize his minutes there's definitely a spot for him on this roster going forward. Though one thing that's amazing here is that none of us are talking about Gianluca Busio. He seems like he's faded badly this season. He's only 19 and there's a lot of road ahead for him, but right now I'm a little disappointed that a guy who I thought was a perfect fit to be McKennie's backup just hasn't been good enough to really be a first choice option to fill in.
I guess another other option I'd usually suggest here would be dropping Brenden Aaronson into midfield. But, I suppose that brings us to the attacking part of the field, where it seems like Aaronson will once again be needed.
3. With Reyna out again, what's the best USMNT attacking unit?
CB: Any three of Pulisic, Brenden Aaronson, Tim Weah, and Jesus Ferriera does it for me. I don't think that Pulisic and Aaronson should be left out of any lineups, leaving Weah and Ferriera to fight over the starting forward spot. While Ricardo Pepi is someone who may eventually lead the line for years to come, this is a spot that should be earned not given. That does mean that Jordan Pefok should be the starter but as Berhalter doesn't seem to like his style fit with the team, it means I have to leave him off this list. As Gyasi Zardes also hasn't started a match for the Crew yet this year, it also leaves him out. Ferriera brings the good movement that we like from Josh Sargent and Pepi with more of a creative and goal threat. And as dangerous as Weah has been on the field, I don't enjoy leaving him on the bench.
RG: I am in the minority of not rating Jesus Ferreira… at least not yet. But with Ricardo Pepi's struggles (hasn't scored since October), I'd like to see Pulisic in attack alongside Aaronson and a striker who has confidence. That No. 9 for me is Jordan Pefok. The Washington D.C. native is currently having the best season of his pro career, having scored 20 goals in 30 games for Young Boys. I think Pulisic and Aaronson are must-starts with Reyna out, and Pefok would be my poacher of choice, even over Pepi.
MG: Somehow we've still yet to see Pulisic, Aaronson and Weah together as a front three and I think that's clearly the way to go against Mexico. They're just far and away the three best players the U.S. has healthy in attack, all three can at least play some version of the No. 9 role, and Weah can play a pretty traditional version of it. I just think there's no reason to get cute. It's international football, put your best players on the pitch and let them deliver.
If I had to chose a more traditional No. 9, Pefok is the guy I'd go with, and he'd definitely be my first option of the bench over Pepi at the moment. Pepi-mania was fun while it lasted and I hope we get another round of it at some point, but his goal scoring was always way out ahead of his production levels and now that he's returned to those production levels he's back to being an interesting prospect, not a full time starter. I also think that some of these other guys could get a look later on in the window if Aaronson drops to midfield against weaker opponents. But for now I pretty strongly believe you just start your three best players.
Ok so we've covered questions about the starting lineup, what about the rest of the roster.
4. Who are some fringe players Berhalter should give a look to?
CB: We've already talked about Pefok and de la Torre so outside of those two, the fringe player who I'd like to see the most is Cristian Roldan. After a good start to the season for the Sounders, Roldan can plug in both at winger and in midfield which allows Berhalter to move Aaronson around if he'd like to. Four assists in the Concacaf Champions Leauge also shows that Roldan is comfortable with competing against similar competition that he'll see during the international break.
RG: I feel like Pefok is somebody who hasn't really been considered much as of late but he needs to be, because he's got over 20 goals this season in Europe and scored again last weekend. He is somebody who I really think should be the starter ahead of Ricardo Pepi for these upcoming games. As for other fringe players, the fact that Alan Sonora hasn't gotten a chance is concerning. He's now the No. 10 at the "Rey de Copas", the king of cups, Independiente of Argentina. No team has more Copa Libertadores than El Rojo, and he's got a huge role with them as they look for silverware this season. He's experienced and should be making this team over a lot of the others that will be included.
MG: I have no idea who is fringe anymore to be honest. Berhalter has rotated through so many different guys over the course of this qualifying campaign. I don't think that's a bad thing, it's a result of a pretty broad talent pool these days. I mean we've barely mentioned Josh Sargent and haven't mentioned Jordan Morris at all, for example. So if Pefok counts then Pefok I guess since he's really the best pure striker the U.S. has. If I had to pick somebody who hasn't gotten a look at all though? I'd take a look at Brian White of the Vancouver Whitecaps as a forward who can go ahead and put the ball in the net if you create for him. Everybody is getting a shot at center forward, so why not the 26-year-old who rounded into the best form of his career last season?
5. How worried should fans be about this round of qualifying?
MG: I'm sure I'll regret this, but I continue to not be worried about qualifying for the World Cup. The U.S. is sitting second, tied with Mexico on 21 points and there's a big gap down to Panama with 17 points. And fourth place goes onto a playoff anyway. Look it's not a guarantee and we all know what happened four years ago, but the USMNT is in a pretty dominant position. Even if they lost at Estadio Azteca they'll still be going into matches at home against Panama and away to Costa Rica with their fate well in their own hands. This team has had its problems over the last year, sure, but broadly they keep doing enough to take care of business and I'd be legitimately surprised if they don't continue to do so.
CB: I want to say that I'n not worried… I really do but with the key injures around the team, I don't want to leave things to Costa Rica. Considering form, I don't think that the USMNT will lose to Mexico and getting a point at Estadio Azteca will be plenty as Panama also won't be a major concern. But lose to Mexico and I'll begin to worry about the team's ability to take their fate into their own hands. Luckily other teams can provide some help but let's hope that it doesn't come down to that.
RG: If the U.S. loses at Mexico and Costa Rica, which is totally reasonable, then they could be flirting with another disaster. I think it's highly unlikely they finish below fourth, meaning at worst they likely get into the intercontinental playoff. But if Panama beat Honduras and Costa Rica beat Canada, combined with the U.S. dropping points at Mexico, look out. Having arguably your two toughest road games (on paper before we saw what happened at Canada) is a tough way to end. This team has managed to get some results on the road, but anything can happen in Concacaf. Beating Panama in the second game is a must-win if they are to control their own destiny. A point at Azteca would set this team up nicely, but a loss will have the hand approaching the panic button for a fan base with no middle ground – it's either the USMNT is the best or the sky is falling.