Examining the Hall of Fame case for Toronto Blue Jays, Seattle Mariners legend John Olerud

Toronto Blue Jays and Seattle Mariners legend John Olerud is one of the most underrated players of the 1990s and part of it is because he was a victim of the steroid era, as many first basemen who seemed superior to Olerud were later accused and/or proven to take PEDs. Those include Mark McGwire, Rafael Palmeiro, and Jason Giambi.

But when you look at Olerud’s career with a modern lens, you see that he has a resumé that is worthy of the Baseball Hall of Fame.

Toronto Blue Jays and Seattle Mariners first baseman John Olerud has a great case for the Baseball Hall of Fame

John Olerud spent parts of 17 seasons in the majors, including parts of eight seasons with the Toronto Blue Jays and five seasons with the Seattle Mariners.

In his career, he hit .295/.398/.465 with an OPS+ of 129. He was a two-time All-Star, a two-time World Series Champion, a three-time Gold Glove winner, and he won the 1993 AL batting title.

He also played in the postseason in eight different years, hitting .278/.366/.435 in 66 career postseason games.

He also had MVP votes in two seasons, including a third-place finish in 1993, when his team (the Blue Jays) won their second straight World Series. In that season, he hit .363 (which led the AL), had an OBP of .473 (which led the majors), a slugging percentage of .599, and an OPS+ of 186 (which led the AL). He also led the majors with 54 doubles and had 24 homers and 107 RBI. He had 7.8 rWAR that season, which was second-highest in the AL.

But one really good season doesn’t make a Hall of Famer, a number of seasons do. Olerud still had that.

He had six seasons where he had an on-base percentage of at least .400 (and he played in at least 154 games in all six seasons). He had 11 seasons where he played at least 135 games and in those seasons, he never had an on-base percentage below .372. He had 100+ RBI in four seasons and four more seasons between 80 and 100 RBI.

Olerud’s main calling card came defensively, though. Olerud only played in the Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) era from his age 34 season on (2003). He was good in the three seasons he played in the DRS era, as he had 19 DRS but it doesn’t show his entire career.

For that, we have to look at Total Zone Runs (TZ or Rtot), which is the predecessor to DRS. It’s not quite as accurate as DRS but it is still calculated today on current players so we can compare them to players of yesteryear. By that, Olerud had 95 TZ in his 17 seasons, or an average of 5.6 TZ per season.

That total number puts him fifth all-time among primary first basemen. In his career, he led first basemen in TZ three times and was in the top four in six more seasons.

All of that amounted to a career rWAR of 58.2. That WAR is 21st all-time among primary first basemen and ahead of many primary first basemen who are Hall of Famers.

Among those Hall of Famers who are below Olerud in WAR are Bill Terry (56.5), Hank Greenberg (55.5), David Ortiz (55.3), George Sisler (54.8), Tony Perez (54.0), Orlando Cepeda (50.1), Frank Chance (46.0), and Gil Hodges (43.9).

By WAR7 (or WAR in their best seven seasons), Olerud is in even better company. His WAR7 is 39.0, which is 24th all-time. 23rd all-time among primary first basemen in WAR7 is Hall of Famer Eddie Murray (39.1). Rafael Palmeiro is 25th at 38.9. Palmeiro would be in if he was accused of and later tested positive for taking PEDs. From no. 20 (Hall of Famer Jim Thome) through no. 40 (Norm Cash), there are nine Hall of Famers (eight of them are in the Hall as a player). Olerud is ahead of seven of them.

JAWS balances both WAR and WAR7 and Olerud’s was 48.6. That’s 23rd all-time, just behind Hall of Famer Harmon Killebrew (49.2) and Hall of Fame manager Joe Torre (47.4). It’s also above Hall of Famers Jake Beckley, the aforementioned Ortiz, Perez, Cepeda, Chance, and Hodges.

But when Olerud was eligible for the Baseball Hall of Fame in 2011, he received just four votes, or 0.7 percent of the vote.

Perhaps, John Olerud will get some more recognition for his career by the Today’s Game Era Committee in the coming years but he will likely be one one of the players that falls by the wayside in Hall of Fame voting and a big reason behind it is because he was overshadowed by PED users of the era.