Canzano: Ducks NCAA Tournament bubble bursts while Beavers weigh buyer’s remorse on Wayne Tinkle extension

Oregon coach Dana Altman (right) calls to his team with Oregon State coach Wayne Tinkle in the background as the Ducks and Beavers met in a Pac-12 men’s basketball game on Jan. 10, 2022, at Gill Coliseum in Corvallis. Both teams have struggled since that meeting. Photo by Leon Neuschwander for The Oregonian/OregonLive
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Oregon lost badly to Arizona State in men’s college basketball on Thursday night. Oregon State played a spirited first half but eventually folded and got beat by Arizona.

Some Friday musings...

♦ No doubt, Oregon State athletic director Scott Barnes was poised a year ago to terminate his men’s basketball coach, Wayne Tinkle. The Beavers struggled mightily in the early part of last season, then somehow turned things around and played five inspired weeks of basketball to finish the season.

OSU won the Pac-12 tournament and blitzed to the Elite Eight. It was one of the best sports stories in our state last year. Tinkle was, appropriately, awarded last April with a contract extension that left him with six more years on his deal and would pay him $17.2 million over that span.

The Beavers are 3-21 this season.

Don’t feel bad for Tinkle. It’s his roster. The players are soft, not resilient and don’t play well together. But there’s a problem now -- OSU can’t afford to fire Tinkle. It owes him too much money. I’m told Barnes gave Tinkle a vote of confidence a few weeks ago and told the basketball coach, “I know you’ll figure this out,” but I can’t help but wonder about buyer’s remorse.

I expect Tinkle will get some pressure to change out one or more of his longtime assistants. I also think we’re going to see mass turnover on the roster. Tinkle and staff made some serious mistakes in recruiting last offseason. You know in a game of Scrabble how you may skip a turn and instead turn in your tiles? Feels like OSU men’s basketball is at that point.

♦ I caught up with the Oregon men’s basketball team a couple of weeks ago on the Salt Lake City swing. The Ducks beat Utah, but looked vulnerable. I like Dana Altman’s guards, but his frontcourt players don’t fit his press, stretch-4 style and I felt like Oregon -- on the NCAA Tournament bubble -- was vulnerable.

The Ducks (17-9) lost to Cal (11-16) by 14 points at home last weekend. Then, on Thursday night, they got destroyed 81-57 by Arizona State (9-15). There’s a bunch of overreaction and tantrum throwing going on in response by fans and media, but none of this is really that surprising. Oregon isn’t going to get an at-large berth in the NCAA Tournament. Their resume has too many holes in it. Too many bad losses. The only way into the field would be winning the Pac-12 tournament in Las Vegas. Altman is dangerous here, but this team just has too many shortcomings.

♦ The Road to the Final Four will still make a stop in our state. Portland is one of the first- and second-round sites for the NCAA Tournament. If nothing else, our state can participate on March 17 and 19 by going to Moda Center to watch the best men’s college basketball teams in the country play. It’s just a shame none of them is likely to come from Oregon.

♦ The Oregon and Oregon State women’s college basketball teams feel like they’re poised to make some noise in March. The Ducks (17-8) will play No. 2 Stanford at home on Sunday in what amounts to a big opportunity. The Beavers (12-9) face the Cardinal tonight in Corvallis at 7 p.m. Lots of good basketball being played on the women’s side in our state -- and don’t forget that Michael Meek’s University of Portland team is dangerous, too. The Pilots are 16-7 this season.

♦ I am not surprised quarterback Jayden Daniels jumped in the transfer portal this week. The soon-to-be-ex Arizona State QB can’t be pleased with the disintegration of the football program. Herm Edwards still has the head coach job there, but four of his assistants are gone in the wake of the NCAA investigation into recruiting violations.

Daniels is a talent, has great mobility and a couple of big wins as a player but I felt like he hit a ceiling last season and just didn’t improve much. He has three seasons of eligibility left. I won’t be surprised if he stays in the Pac-12 footprint. Daniels desperately needed a change of scenery, but maybe not a dramatic one.

I was also interested to see a video that circulated showing some ASU players cleaning out Daniels’ locker and bad-mouthing him on his way out. Maybe bad feelings happen when someone leaves your team, but there’s definitely some broken culture and trouble at ASU right now. Edwards is the architect of the football program. He’s the head coach and guy in charge. If there was a major issue or wrongdoing under his watch shouldn’t Edwards be the first one to be out of work?

I’ll suspect Daniels will have something to say about it.

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Email: John@JohnCanzano.com

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