Super Bowl 2022 picks: Predictions for Bengals-Rams

By Geoff Schwartz
FOX Sports NFL Analyst

After one of the wildest NFL postseason tournaments we've ever seen, here we are with both No. 4 seeds in Super Bowl LVI: the Cincinnati Bengals vs. the Los Angeles Rams.

Just as everyone expected.

Behind the cool confidence of Joe Burrow, Cincinnati rallied from a 21-3 deficit to stun the defending AFC champion Chiefs 27-24 in overtime at Arrowhead. In the NFC title game, L.A. staged a dramatic rally of its own, roaring back from a 10-point deficit entering the fourth quarter to overtake the rival 49ers 20-17.

The Rams have been installed as early four-point favorites, according to FOX Bet, for the Feb. 13 matchup at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California (6:30 p.m. ET, NBC).

How did we get here, and who is my early pick to win the Super Bowl? Let's break it down.

HOW THE BENGALS WON THE AFC

I will start by being clear: The Bengals deserve to be here. They’ve battled through three games that haven’t been perfect, but they’ve finished them perfectly. 

Cincinnati has made fewer mistakes than its opponents and clearly has a belief in its ability to overcome the odds to win playoff games, having knocked out the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds in the AFC in consecutive weeks. 

Burrow continues to make elite plays in big games. His ability to avoid sacks against the Chiefs was tremendous. But there’s no way to discuss what happened Sunday at Arrowhead without properly putting the blame squarely where it lies … on the Chiefs.

As a Chiefs fan, this pains me to write, but this game will be remembered for Patrick Mahomes' second-half meltdown. It’s something Kansas City's quarterback and coach Andy Reid will have to own for the rest of their careers. 

The Chiefs were up 21-3 at home as seven-point favorites against a team they should have blown out. They were up 21-10, needing one yard to make it 28-10 or a short field goal to go up 24-10, on the final play of the first half. 

Kansas City had nearly 300 yards in the first half and was a single yard short of having the perfect half on offense. Of course, none of that happened, as Mahomes made a costly mistake by not throwing the ball away on the final play of the half, and the Chiefs came away with nothing on that drive. 

Then the mediocre Chiefs showed up in the second half, an inconsistency that has plagued them all season.

Meanwhile, the Bengals came out in the second half with a new defense. They dropped seven or eight defenders into coverage, and Mahomes could not find anyone open. Not only that, but when guys were open, he sailed his throws. There’s no explaining what we saw from the QB down the stretch. 

In the second half, Kansas City had just 83 yards on 31 plays. The Bengals dared the Chiefs to be patient, and they didn’t do it. While they ran the ball well in the second half, averaging almost seven yards per carry, the Chiefs ran it only six times.

Mahomes took awful sacks while searching for an open receiver and seemingly refused to scramble when the Bengals rushed three guys. Cincinnati certainly deserves credit for adjusting at halftime, but the Bengals didn't do anything special. They played zone coverage and were able to disrupt the K.C. offense.

On offense, the Bengals chipped away as they continually put themselves in bad spots by rushing the ball on first down. It was rarely successful, but Burrow consistently bailed them out on third down.

The Bengals' offensive line once again struggled, but Burrow was not fazed by it. The second-year QB was a magician, avoiding pressure from Chris Jones and the Chiefs' pass-rushers. 

The Bengals continue to advance without being able to run the ball efficiently or protect Burrow. I cannot explain it, and maybe there’s no explanation needed. 

The Bengals have advanced to their first Super Bowl berth since 1989.

HOW THE RAMS WON THE NFC

It was not pretty at times, but the Rams staged a dramatic fourth-quarter comeback to beat the Niners for the first time in their past seven meetings.

Matt Stafford was good and bad, as he usually is. He went 31-for-45 for 337 yards and two touchdowns. The Niners dropped a sure interception that might have sealed it, and the Rams scored the final 13 points of the game to reach their second Super Bowl in four years.

The Rams finally controlled the line of scrimmage against the 49ers, limiting the Niners' ground game to 50 yards on 20 carries. In the end, L.A.'s defensive line took over to force a game-sealing interception from Jimmy Garoppolo. 

The Rams were aided by some poor end-of-game coaching by San Francisco's Kyle Shanahan, but they aren’t going to apologize for it.

The Rams went all-in this season when they traded Jared Goff for Stafford. They then doubled down by acquiring Von Miller and Odell Beckham Jr. The L.A. defense is built to stop passing attacks with its pass rush and Jalen Ramsey patrolling the back end of the defense. 

All the bold moves have helped the win-now Rams reach the big game.

PREDICTIONS FOR SUPER BOWL LVI

I understand that I keep wagering against the Bengals and I keep losing. Burrow has now led the Bengals to wins every time he has been an underdog this season — and the Bengals will be underdogs again on Super Sunday.

There’s something about Burrow's play that gets the most out of his team and his own talent. However … I can’t do it for the Super Bowl. 

The Rams' defensive line is going to obliterate the Bengals' offensive line. L.A. has Aaron Donald playing against one of the worst rotations of right guards in the NFL. Leonard Floyd will rush over the Bengals' best lineman in Jonah Williams at left tackle, and Von Miller, who’s having a career resurgence, will get to rush over the Bengals' right tackle.

Yes, Burrow made it work against the Raiders, Titans and Chiefs — but none of those teams has the Rams' pass defense. L.A. entered the NFC title game with the third-ranked pass defense in the NFL. For reference, the Titans are 11th, the Raiders 21st and the Chiefs 23rd. So while Burrow has been able to compensate for his poor offensive line, I do not expect that to continue in the Super Bowl.

On the flip side, I foresee a struggle for the Bengals' defense. What are they good at? Again, they rushed three and dropped eight into coverage Sunday, and the Chiefs had no answer. The Rams will just run the ball. 

The Bengals entered Sunday's game ranked 21st in pass defense and 14th in run defense. The Rams' ability to run the ball would worry me if I were a Bengals fan. The Chiefs were able to move the ball on the ground with ease, and they didn't even want to run the ball. The Rams would love to.

The Bengals have been able to force turnovers this postseason, and we know Stafford has issues with giving the ball away. This is the formula for the Bengals once again: They need to force turnovers, stay patient on defense and make Stafford beat them.

I’m taking the Rams to win the Super Bowl on their home field. Maybe it’s a mistake after picking against the Bengals for weeks now, but my mind will not allow me to pick a team with an offensive line I do not trust in a Super Bowl. 

The Rams will win this game in the trenches, and Stafford will do just enough to help L.A. claim the Lombardi Trophy.

Geoff Schwartz played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. He is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.