Progressives frustrated by failures on domestic spending and voting rights should not target Joe Manchin, the veteran Democratic operative James Carville said, because “bitching about a Democratic senator in West Virginia is missing the damn plot”.
But Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona, Carville said in a wide-ranging interview with Vox, is fair game for a primary challenge.
Manchin and Sinema are moderates with outsized power in a Senate split 50-50 and controlled by the vice-president’s casting vote.
In December, Manchin sank Joe Biden’s Build Back Better domestic spending package, which among other goals seeks to boost child and healthcare and to combat the climate crisis.
In January, Manchin and Sinema refused to back reform to the filibuster, the Senate rule by which most legislation must attract 60 votes, ending hopes of passing voting rights protections in answer to restrictive laws passed by Republicans in state government.
Amid fury on the left, Bernie Sanders, the Vermont senator and progressive figurehead, promised to campaign against both his Senate colleagues.
Carville is a colourful figure, widely known as the Ragin’ Cajun, who made his name in Bill Clinton’s run to the White House in 1992. He told Vox progressive anger should focus on Sinema.
“Understand that Joe Manchin is a Roman Catholic Democrat in a state in which not a single county has voted Democrat [for president] since 2008,” Carville said.
“Politics is about choices and he’s up for re-election in 2024. If Manchin runs for re-election, I’ll do everything I can to help him because it’s either going to be Joe Manchin or Marsha Blackburn. It ain’t Joe Manchin or Ed Markey.”
Blackburn is a hard-right Republican from Tennessee, Markey a progressive Democrat from Massachusetts.
“You got to understand that,” Carville said. “It’s really that damn simple. Now the situation with Sinema in Arizona is … entirely different.”
Sinema presents herself as a “blue dog” Democrat, or moderate, in a state which has two Democratic senators for the first time since 1952. But her willingness to stand in the way of Joe Biden’s legislative programme led her own state party to issue a formal censure last week.
“I can’t explain it,” Carville said, “and no one else can. The only explanation people have given is that she wants to be the next John McCain.”
McCain, the 2008 Republican presidential nominee, won himself a reputation as a political maverick, for example, bringing down Donald Trump’s attempt to scrap the Affordable Care Act in a dramatic vote.
Sinema, Carville said, was “not going to win a primary against [the Arizona congressman] Ruben Gallego, I’ll tell you that damn much. And I will personally volunteer to help him fundraise because I think we can keep that seat if he runs.”
Echoing other observers, Carville said Manchin’s opposition to Biden measures like an expired child tax credit was “extraordinary”, given how people in his state have struggled under the coronavirus pandemic.
But polling in West Virginia shows support for Manchin’s stand against Build Back Better.
“I’ll just keep saying it,” Carville said. “If we don’t have Senator Manchin, we’re going to have somebody really, really, really extreme in his seat.
“Some of these people bitching about Manchin can’t see political reality straight. Six per cent of adults in this country identify as ‘progressive’. Only 11% or 12% of Democrats identify as progressive. So let’s just meet in the middle and say something like 7% or 8% of the country agrees with the progressive left.
“This ain’t a goddamn debate any more. Someone like Manchin is closer to the mainstream than a lot of these people think, and pretending like he isn’t won’t help the cause.”
Carville also criticised Democrats for targeting unwinnable elections, such as a 2020 attempt to unseat Mitch McConnell, the Republican Senate leader, in Kentucky.
“We’re addicted to hopeless causes,” he said, advocating a focus on state contests to decide who gets to pass laws like those restricting voting rights which Republicans have passed by the dozen.
“What about the secretary of state in Wisconsin? Or the attorney general race in Michigan? How much money are Democrats and progressives sending to those candidates?
“I’m telling you, if Democrats are worried about voting rights and election integrity, then these are the sorts of races they should support and volunteer for, because this is where the action is and this is where things will be decided.
“You know who is paying attention to these races? The Republican party. Last I checked, Republicans raised $33m for secretary of state races around the country. The Democrats had until recently raised $1m. I think it’s now up to $4m. That’s the story, right there. That’s the difference, right there.
“Bitching about a Democratic senator in West Virginia is missing the damn plot.”