The Commish's gambling picks are in for NFL conference championship Sunday
Last weekend produced a massive amount of drama for sports bettors. All four NFL playoff matchups were decided on the final play, including three field goals and a knockout touchdown in overtime.
But since NFL conference championships began in 1970, the home team has a record of 69-33 straight up. Since 2013, the home team is 13-3 straight up and 11-5 against the spread.
This week’s picks
CHIEFS (-7) vs. Bengals: The Chiefs have gone 11-1 in their last 12 games and appear to be on their way to winning it all. It’s easy to root for the Bengals, but this game is going to come down to the lack of pass protection for Joe Burrow. He’s been sacked 61 times and that number will grow on Sunday. Patrick Mahomes isn’t going to throw three interceptions, which is what the Bengals needed to win last week against the Titans.
RAMS (-3.5) vs. 49ers: The Rams are firing on all cylinders and have the advantage in all phases of the game. This will come down to quarterback play, and Matthew Stafford has been monumentally better than Jimmy Garoppolo. In his last four games, Garoppolo has thrown two touchdown passes to six interceptions. That level of play won’t be nearly enough to advance to the Super Bowl.
Prop bets
Anytime touchdown - Ja’Marr Chase (+100) - Bengals at Chiefs: The Bengals are going to be trailing throughout, so Chase will have plenty of opportunities to score during garbage time.
OVER (5.5) receptions by Travis Kelce (-115) - Bengals at Chiefs: The Bengals are vulnerable against the tight end position and Kelce is in an optimal position for massive production.
UNDER (39.5) rushing yards by Deebo Samuel (-115) - 49ers at Rams: Samuel is starting to show wear and tear from getting so many weekly touches. He’ll have rushing opportunities but fall short on this total.
UNDER (279.5) passing yards by Matthew Stafford (-115) - 49ers at Rams: Both teams will look to establish their running games, keeping passing totals below projections.