Type of splash Miami Marlins make rests on playoff expansion

The Miami Marlins seem poised to make a splash once baseball resumes: how big and what kind depends entirely on playoff expansion.

The Miami Marlins want to add another big bat.

That has been the sentiment since the moment Avisail Garcia signed. Garcia would help, as would Jacob Stallings and Joey Wendle. But they weren’t enough to flip the script on one of the league’s most impotent offenses. That was going to take some better luck with health, more improvement from Jazz Chisholm, and one more to be determined piece to bring it all together.

Yet there was no guarantee on how dynamic that piece was going to be, with a lot of chatter focused on either second tier options or unproven rookies. Good enough to make the Marlins better in other words, but not necessarily one of those moves that was going to send fans scrambling to buy jerseys. That narrative took a hit this Wednesday though, when the Miami Herald’s Barry Jackson reported that Miami really is looking to swing for the fences with an impact acquisition. All that seems to be in question is whether it happens via trade or free agency.

For my money, there will be no bigger factor in those deliberations for the Miami Marlins than whether or not MLB and the MLBPA agree on playoff expansion in 2022.

If the debate were whether or not Miami does anything at all, that would be an obvious observation to make. But if Miami is committed to improving at the plate no matter what, the nature of the how becomes much more important. After all, the NL is loaded, and the NL East is in particular. The Marlins absolutely need to make progress offensively, but how quickly they need to do so depends entirely on whether or not MLB teams are going to have a wider net to work with when chasing a playoff spot.

If MLB does expand the playoff field, I think you can pencil the Miami Marlins in for buying the best bat that they can. It’s hard to see the Marlins making a 2022 playoff run without their Big Three of Sandy Alcantara, Trevor Rogers, and Pablo Lopez leading the way. Even with that group, another arm or two will likely need to emerge from Miami’s cavernous pitching depth. This team could sign Nick Castellanos and Carlos Correa next month, and still call pitching its strength. As such, they would be crazy to deplete their best weapon if they have eyes on the postseason this year.

However, if the road to October remains narrow- either because expansion wasn’t agreed to or it is put off a year for whatever reason- then 2022 is more likely to be treated by the Miami Marlins as a stepping stone. In that scenario, paying the price tag for someone like Bryan Reynolds makes a lot more sense. Miami can then spend the season giving reps to their remaining rookies, figuring out who makes sense to build around.

That being said, trading might actually be the most sensible option. But something tells me the Miami Marlins might be getting ready to splash the pot in free agency if they sense their second playoff appearance in three years is on the table.