Congressional Democrats urge Biden to change US nuclear doctrine

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A PLEA FOR FEWER NUKES: A group of 55 House and Senate members have written a letter to President Joe Biden urging him “to take bold steps” to reduce America’s reliance on nuclear weapons, including retiring several new weapons systems added to the U.S. arsenal under the administration of former President Donald Trump.

The lobbying effort, led by Sens. Edward Markey of Massachusetts and Jeff Merkley of Oregon, and House members John Garamendi of California and Donald Beyer of Virginia, comes as the administration prepares to release its revamped Nuclear Posture Review in the coming weeks or months.

“Your NPR represents a once-in-a-generation opportunity to ensure that U.S. nuclear doctrine reflects your recognition that a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought,” the letter says.

Earlier this month, the United States, the United Kingdom, France, China, and Russia all signed a joint statement declaring that “nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought” and that the sole purpose of nuclear weapons should be to “deter aggression and prevent war.”

“We underline our desire to work with all states to create a security environment more conducive to progress on disarmament with the ultimate goal of a world without nuclear weapons with undiminished security for all,” the statement said.

NO FIRST USE: The lawmakers call on Biden to reaffirm his past stated view that the U.S. does not need to use nuclear weapons first in response to a non-nuclear attack, a doctrine known as “No First Use.”

In the waning days of the Obama administration in January of 2017, Biden gave a speech as vice president in which he said, “Given our non-nuclear capabilities and the nature of today’s threats, it’s hard to envision a plausible scenario in which the first use of nuclear weapons by the United States would be necessary or make sense … Deterring, and, if necessary, retaliating against a nuclear attack should be the sole purpose of the U.S. nuclear arsenal.”

That view is not held by the current Pentagon leadership, nor the current or past U.S. strategic commanders, who all argue that maintaining the option of first use is key to deterring Russia and China.

BIDEN ADVOCATED ‘NO FIRST USE’ POLICY AS VP. WOULD HE CHANGE NUCLEAR DOCTRINE AS PRESIDENT?

DUMP TRUMP’S ‘NEW, UNNECESSARY NUCLEAR WEAPONS’: The letter specifically targets what it calls “President Trump’s new, unnecessary warfighting nuclear weapons,” including a low-yield version of the W-76 warhead on some submarine-launched ballistic missiles as well as a planned future nuclear-armed sea-launched cruise missile, which arms control advocates argue is destabilizing because, in flight, a nuclear-armed cruise missile cannot be distinguished from a conventional one.

The Democratic lawmakers also call for “a comprehensive, independent study of whether to pursue the new ground-based strategic deterrent,” the planned replacement for the Cold War-era Minuteman III ICBM. U.S. commanders have repeatedly warned the Minuteman missiles are reaching the end of their useful life.

A MINORITY VIEW: The sentiments expressed in the letter are not shared by a majority of Democrats or Republicans in Congress. Only one member of the Senate Armed Services Committee signed the letter, Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts.

When a report first surfaced in Politico two weeks ago suggesting the Biden NPR might cut the Trump-era weapons, Republicans were quick to push back.

“It’s almost incomprehensible that even now, in spite of mountains of evidence to the contrary, bipartisan congressional, allied and expert opposition, and a security environment that seems to get worse by the day, the Biden administration continues to look for opportunities to weaken the ultimate guarantee of our nation’s and our allies’ security,” said the ranking Republicans on the House and Senate Armed Services Committees, Rep. Mike Rogers and Sen. Jim Inhofe in a joint statement.

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YET MORE N. KOREA MISSILE TESTS: If North Korea is looking for attention, its month of missile tests seems to be doing the trick.

Today, South Korea’s military reported that the North fired two suspected short-range ballistic missiles toward the East Sea, according to the Yonhap news service.

Today’s launch is the sixth this month, including two tests on Jan. 5 and Jan. 11 that Pyongyang claimed were hypersonic missiles with maneuverable warheads capable of evading U.S. missile defenses.

As for why North Korea has ramped up missile testing, theories range from an effort to pressure the Biden administration into resuming long-stalled nuclear talks, to a show of force to coincide with the Beijing Winter Olympics, which begin next week.

‘THE BALL IS IN THEIR COURT’: In the diplomatic back and forth over Ukraine, Russia insisted it wanted the U.S. to respond in writing to the demands Moscow made in its draft Ukraine treaty proposed last month.

At a news conference yesterday, Secretary of State Antony Blinken says the document and a separate written response have been delivered to Moscow and contain no surprises and no concessions.

“Our response to Russia reflects what I said in Kyiv, Berlin, and Geneva last week. We’re open to dialogue, we prefer diplomacy, and we’re prepared to move forward where there is the possibility of communication and cooperation if Russia de-escalates its aggression toward Ukraine, stops the inflammatory rhetoric, and approaches discussions about the future of security in Europe in a spirit of reciprocity.”

The chief spokesman for Russian President Vladimir Putin did not show much cause for optimism but said Putin would review the documents carefully. “All these papers are with the president,” said Dmitri Peskov. “There will of course be some time needed to analyze them — we won’t rush to any conclusions.”

“Right now, the document is with them, and the ball is in their court,” said Blinken. “We’ll see what we do. As I’ve said repeatedly, whether they choose the path of diplomacy and dialogue, whether they decide to renew aggression against Ukraine, we’re prepared either way.”

US OFFERS CONFIDENTIAL RESPONSE TO RUSSIA’S ULTIMATUM FOR NATO AMID UKRAINE CRISIS

TIME TO GET OUT: The State Department has issued an updated Travel Advisory which urges Americans to get out of Ukraine now “due to the potential for security conditions to deteriorate rapidly and without warning” if Russia invades.

“Our message now for any Americans in Ukraine is to strongly consider leaving using commercial or other privately available transportation options,” said Blinken. “These options remain readily available, and the embassy may extend loans to those who can’t afford the cost of a commercial ticket.”

“If Russia invades, civilians — including Americans still in Ukraine — could be caught in a conflict zone between combatant forces,” he said. “The U.S. government may not be in a position to aid individuals in these circumstances.”

BLINKEN WARNS US CIVILIANS COULD BE CAUGHT IN RUSSIA-UKRAINE ‘CONFLICT ZONE’

US PREPARING OPTIONS FOR IRAN: With time running out on the Vienna talks aimed at bringing Iran and the U.S. back into the 2015 nuclear deal, the U.S. and Israel are discussing options for preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons should diplomacy fail.

National security adviser Jake Sullivan met virtually yesterday with his Israeli counterpart Eyal Hulata to discuss “significant regional developments since the last … meeting in December, including advances in Iran’s nuclear program,” according to the White House.

“The talks with Iran about a mutual return to compliance with the JCPOA have reached a decisive moment. If a deal is not reached in the next few weeks, Iran’s ongoing nuclear advances will make it impossible to return to the JCPOA,” Blinken said in Geneva last week. “But right now, there’s still a window, a brief one, to bring those talks to a successful conclusion and address the remaining concerns of all sides.”

In his discussions with Israel, “Sullivan emphasized that while the United States remains committed to diplomacy as the best means for preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon, the United States is preparing alternative options, in coordination with its partners, should diplomacy fail.”

VETERANS GROUP LAUDS CHANGE TO SEXUAL ASSAULT LAW: President Joe Biden’s new executive order making sexual harassment in the military a crime under the Uniform Code of Military Justice is drawing praise from veterans groups.

“This order comes following key Congressional movement last month on how the military prosecutes major crimes, including rape and sexual assault,” said Jeremy Butler, CEO of Iraq and Afghanistan Veterans of America.

“The executive order addresses a long conflict of interest in these cases, removing commanders and military leaders from prosecution decisions and requiring each branch to establish its own independent Office of Special Trial, to handle each case,” Butler said in a statement.

BIDEN SIGNS EXECUTIVE ORDER MAKING SEXUAL HARASSMENT A MILITARY JUSTICE VIOLATION

The Rundown

Washington Examiner: US offers confidential response to Russia’s ultimatum for NATO amid Ukraine crisis

Washington Examiner: White House downplays concerns of Russian cyber strikes on US homeland

Washington Examiner: Blinken warns US civilians could be caught in Russia-Ukraine ‘conflict zone’

Washington Examiner: Opinion: For France, Italy, and Germany, European solidarity is a wobbly construct

Washington Examiner: Biden signs executive order making sexual harassment a military justice violation

Washington Examiner: Navy discharges over coronavirus vaccine refusals up to 45

Washington Examiner: Leaked audio reveals DHS secretary’s tense meeting with Border Patrol agents

Washington Examiner: White House downplays concerns of Russian cyber strikes on US homeland

Washington Examiner: Blinken warns US civilians could be caught in Russia-Ukraine ‘conflict zone’

Washington Examiner: For France, Italy, and Germany, European solidarity is a wobbly construct

Washington Post: As it weighs action in Ukraine, Russia showcases its new military prowess

USNI News: 140 Russian Navy Warships Drilling Across Europe, Middle East As Ukraine Tensions Simmer

Reuters: U.S., China Confer On Ukraine, Urge De-Escalation And Calm

New York Times: Taiwan, Microchips And The Potential For A U.S.-China Conflict

Defense One: SecDef Austin Summons Hypersonics CEOs

Air Force Magazine: Space Force Plans Two New Exercises: Polaris Hammer and Black Skies

Air Force Magazine: New F-35 Lot 15-17 Deal Hung Up on Inflation, COVID-19 Mitigation Costs

Air Force Magazine: KC-46 Losses Now Top $5.4 Billion as Boeing Takes a New $406 Million Charge

19fortyfive.com: Ford: The US Navy’s Largest Aircraft Carrier Ever Is Ready for Action

USNI News: Navy Shifts COVID-19 Strategy On Ships To Adhere To CDC Guidance As Omicron Variant Surges

19fortyfive.com: Could China Fish a Dead F-35C Stealth Fighter From the South China Sea?

CNN: U.S. Navy Wants To Get Crashed Stealth Fighter Back — Before China Can

19fortyfive.com: Why is the Russian Navy Sailing Off Ireland? To Send NATO A Message

19fortyfive.com: Forget Ukraine: Could Russia Invade and Conquer the Baltic States?

Calendar

THURSDAY | JANUARY 27

8:30 a.m. — Henry L. Stimson Center virtual discussion: “Prospects for Japanese Defense Policy and the Indo-Pacific Region,” with Ken Jimbo, senior research fellow at the Canon Institute for Global Studies and professor of the Faculty of Policy Management at Keio University; and Yuki Tatsumi, director of the Japan Program and co-director of the East Asia Program at Stimson https://www.stimson.org/event/prospects-for-japanese-defense-policy

9 a.m. — Atlantic Council virtual discussion: “What Can We Learn From the Afghanistan Experience?” with Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction John Sopko https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/a-conversation-with-sigar-john-sopko-and-shuja-nawaz/

2 p.m. — Defense One online event: “Connecting the Battlefield: In the Age of Contested Communications,” with Cyril “Mark” Taylor, CTO, communications/J6 of the U.S. Special Operations Command; Juliana Vida, vice president of the global sector and chief strategy adviser at Splunk; and Patrick Tucker, technology editor at Defense One https://event.on24.com/wcc

7 p.m. — Henry L. Stimson Center virtual discussion: “Understanding Kim Jong Un’s Economic Policymaking: Implications and Opportunities,” with Rachel Minyoung Lee, nonresident fellow at Stimson; and Robert Carlin, nonresident fellow at Stimson https://www.stimson.org/event/understanding-kim-jong-un

FRIDAY | JANUARY 28

8:30 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “Prioritizing Partnerships with Africa,” with Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs Robert Scott; and Japanese Foreign Ministry African Department Director-General Koji Yonetani https://www.csis.org/events/prioritizing-partnerships-africa

10 a.m. — McCain Institute virtual event: “What is the Future of the NATO Alliance with a More Aggressive Russia?” with Jüri Luik, the permanent representative of Estonia to NATO; Evelyn Farkas, president, Farkas Global Strategies; Edward Lucas, nonresident senior fellow, Center for European Policy Analysis; and David Kramer; managing director for global policy, George W. Bush Institute https://www.eventbrite.com/e/what-is-the-future-of-the-nato-alliance

MONDAY | JANUARY 31

11 a.m. — Brookings Institution virtual event: “Responsible AI from principles to practice,” with Jared Dunnmon, technical director, artificial intelligence/machine learning, DOD Defense Innovation Unit; Michael Gibson, deputy head, Defense AI and Autonomy Unit, U.K. Ministry of Defense; Heather Roff, senior research scientist, Center for Naval Analysis; Michael Street, head of innovation and data science, NCI Agency, NATO; and Melanie Sisson, fellow, Center for Security, Strategy, and Technology, Brookings https://www.brookings.edu/events/responsible-ai-from-principles-to-practice

4 p.m. — CSIS International Security Program virtual event: “The Future of the French Navy,” with Adm. Pierre Vandier, chief of the French Navy; and Seth Jones, CSIS senior vice president and director of the International Security Program. https://www.csis.org/events/future-french-navy

TUESDAY | FEBRUARY 1

9 a.m. — George Washington University Project for Media and National Security Defense Writers Group virtual conversation with Gen. Edward Daly, commander, Army Materiel Command. https://nationalsecuritymedia.gwu.edu/

WEDNESDAY | FEBRUARY 2

10 a.m. CVC-200 Capitol Visitor Center — Senate Armed Services committee closed hearing on “U.S. Policy on Afghanistan,” with secret testimony from Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin  CLOSED, no webcast https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings

THURSDAY | FEBRUARY 3

11 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies book launch: Spies, Lies, and Algorithms: The History and Future of American Intelligence, with author Amy Zegart, senior fellow, the Hoover Institution and Freeman Spogli Institute of International Studies; and Jake Harrington, intelligence fellow, CSIS International Security Program https://www.csis.org/events/book-launch-spies-lies-and-algorithms

QUOTE OF THE DAY

“As president, you can exercise badly needed leadership in reducing the role, number, and salience of nuclear weapons at home and abroad so that future generations can finally be free from the nuclear sword of Damocles that hangs over all our heads. We urge you to do so.”

Letter to President Joe Biden from 55 congressional Democrats urging him to cut some nuclear weapons and declare a “No First Use” policy.

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