UPDATE: Snow threat increases for weekend storm. Latest forecast on snowfall amounts, track, timing.
Forecasters from AccuWeather say the upcoming weekend coastal storm has the potential to dump 6 inches of snow on most areas of New Jersey, based on the latest trends of computer guidance models.
In addition to heavy snow, the Garden State could get hit with strong gusty winds and coastal flooding, AccuWeather says. But if this trend materializes, the storm would be even worse on Long Island in New York and in eastern New England, where heavier snow and stronger winds are predicted.
However, forecasters from AccuWeather, other private forecasting weather companies and the public National Weather Service all caution that there’s a high level of uncertainty over the track the storm will take on Friday and Saturday — and the precise track will play a major role in determining how hard each region of the eastern United States gets hit.
“This could be a huge snowstorm for New England,” said AccuWeather forecaster Bernie Rayno in a storm forecast update Tuesday afternoon on AccuWeather.com.
Rayno said the storm is likely to form in the southeastern U.S. on Friday, then move up the Atlantic seaboard Friday night and Saturday as it strengthens. The precise track, and where the storm is located when it intensifies, will determine how much snow falls, how strong the winds are and how much coastal flooding will occur.
Under one scenario, Rayno said, the center of the storm would move fairly close to the Atlantic coast — about 150 miles east of the Jersey Shore — which would have the potential to bring 6 inches of snow to the Garden State and the Hudson Valley in New York.
Under another scenario, the storm’s center would move farther east, bringing only light snow to most of New Jersey, AccuWeather says.
With both of those scenarios, the storm would rapidly strengthen as it moves toward eastern New England, which is why heavy snow and fierce winds are more likely in that region, according to AccuWeather.
The National Weather Service has not yet issued any snowfall projections for New Jersey, but the agency’s New York regional office issued a hazardous weather outlook for Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Passaic and Union counties, saying heavy snow and strong winds are possible this weekend.
“There is the potential for a coastal storm to bring heavy snowfall and high winds to portions of the area Friday night into Saturday night,” the outlook says. “Uncertainties remain with the track and intensity of the coastal storm and its resulting potential impacts.”
The weather service’s Mount Holly forecast office, which covers 16 of New Jersey’s 21 counties, agrees the storm has the potential to be a strong one but says a high degree of uncertainty exists as of Tuesday afternoon because the storm is still days away and computer guidance models have been inconsistent.
The Mount Holly office says it could be another day or two before it gets a good handle on the storm and how it will impact our region. But in a post on Twitter and Facebook, the office said “confidence is increasing that a significant winter storm will create considerable impacts Friday through the weekend from the Mid-Atlantic through the Northeast.”
Blast of Arctic air
For now, New Jerseyans should prepare for another wave of frigid temperatures, starting Tuesday night and continuing through Friday morning, thanks to a cold front that is pushing Arctic air from eastern Canada into our region.
The National Weather Service says daytime highs will be stuck in the 20s on Wednesday and overnight lows could drop as low as the single digits — without the wind chill factored in — in some areas of the state by Thursday morning.
As of now, the weather service is predicting lows of 6 degrees in Morristown, 8 degrees in Millville and New Brunswick, 9 degrees in Atlantic City and Trenton, and 11 degrees in Caldwell on Thursday. At Sussex Airport, the mercury could plummet to 2 degrees below zero Thursday morning, and the low in Andover is expected to be near zero.
As cold as that is, temperatures would have to be even colder to break any record lows for Jan. 27. The record low for that date in the Sussex area is 15 degrees below zero, set in 1994, according to weather service data.
The record low in Newark is 2 below zero (1994), the record low in New Brunswick is 3 below zero (1994), the record low in Trenton is 1 degree (1994) and the record low in Atlantic City is 1 degree below zero (1987).
Current weather radar
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Len Melisurgo may be reached at LMelisurgo@njadvancemedia.com.
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