The political environment facing Democrats is darkening as President Joe Biden enters the second year of his term, with several new polls showing voters are disappointed in the direction his administration has led the country and are prepared to hold his party accountable in the midterm elections.
“The polls are pretty bleak,” said Democratic strategist Brad Bannon. “There’s no question about it.”
In an NBC News poll released Sunday, 72% of Americans said the country is headed in the wrong direction, and 61% said their family’s income is falling behind the cost of living. That level of pessimism from the electorate is rare, and it has typically portended steep losses for the party in power in subsequent elections.
"There is nothing but flashing red lights and warning signs for Democrats," said Bill McInturff, a Republican pollster who helped conduct the NBC survey.
The poll showed voters still prefer Democrats over Republicans to control Congress by a slim margin, but Republicans hold a 24-point advantage on enthusiasm about the midterm elections. Interest in the upcoming elections has sunken among key Democratic constituencies since October.
Other recent polls indicate support for Biden and his agenda is eroding with suburban voters who helped put him in office. In a Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll published Monday, 56% of suburban voters said former President Donald Trump was a better president than Biden, and 57% said they are more likely to support Republicans than Democrats in the midterms.
A survey released last week by The Associated Press and NORC Center for Public Affairs Research found public approval of Biden’s performance has plummeted by 16 points in the last six months, and fewer than 30% of Americans want him to run for reelection in 2024. Among Democrats, Biden’s job approval has slipped from 97% when he first took office to 76% one year later.
A new Fox News poll puts Biden’s approval at 47%, higher than most other recent surveys, but only 36% of Americans said they would vote to reelect him in 2024. The Fox poll also reflected growing sentiments that neither the COVID-19 pandemic nor inflation are under control, and majorities of voters disapprove of Biden’s handling of all major issues.
The distressing poll numbers could intensify divisions within the Democratic Party over its legislative strategy in 2022. After progress on President Biden’s Build Back Better agenda stalled in December, congressional leaders are weighing their next steps with limited time on the calendar and little margin for error.
“If the numbers in November are the numbers we have now, we’re facing a big problem,” Bannon said. “I think Democrats have to recognize that and figure out what to do about it.”
Some progressives believe the key to staving off a midterm disaster is pressing ahead with Biden’s multi-trillion-dollar spending plan, passing as much of it as they can, and foisting blame on Republicans for what they cannot. Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., has called for the Senate to vote on components of the package, even if they are certain to be blocked by Republican filibusters.
“What has bothered me very much is, the Republicans are laughing all the way to Election Day,” Sanders told CNN Sunday. “They have not had to cast one bloody vote which shows us where they're at. And we have got to change that.”
Others say the party’s ambitions have grown too broad and its policy proposals are misaligned with voters’ anxieties. Rep. Elissa Slotkin, D-Mich., one of few House Democrats representing a district Trump won in 2020, argued Democrats should narrow their focus to address the cost of living and other issues their constituents have identified as top priorities.
“We should be doing a couple of things really, really well and then talking about it over and over and over again, so people know we did it, as opposed to saying we're going to do everything, promising the world, and then not getting all of that done,” Slotkin said on NBC’s “Meet the Press.”
At a news conference last week, President Biden rejected the suggestion he had promised too much and delivered too little in his first year in office. He touted several successes and decried Republican obstruction that he claimed was more strident than he anticipated.
“I didn’t overpromise, but I think if you take a look at what we’ve been able to do, you’d have to acknowledge we made enormous progress,” he said.
The White House did score significant legislative victories in 2021 with the passage of the American Rescue Plan and a bipartisan infrastructure package, and Biden has been credited with improving the federal vaccine distribution process. However, he still ended the year with COVID-19 infections surging near record levels and consumers confronting the fastest inflation in decades.
With rising prices topping voters’ concerns, messaging about the progress Biden has made might not resonate. A Trafalgar Group survey released Tuesday found 75% of voters are pessimistic about their family’s financial situation in 2022, and nearly half of independents believe their personal finances will be in worse shape in 12 months.
“Leaders in both parties in Washington would be wise to focus on the priorities of the American people instead of remaining on the current course of pushing their own agendas, which are not making things better for families,” said Mark Meckler, president of Convention of States Action, which commissioned the poll.
According to Bannon, there is some value for Democrats in getting Republicans on the record voting against popular policies like lowering prescription drug prices and expanding Medicare benefits. However, the polls underscore how important it is to make clear how the aspects of their agenda they actually can pass will address voters’ economic pain.
“The whole point of Build Back Better is to improve the economy... I think that’s what most Americans want,” he said.