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The quarterback position on the Colts has been questioned heavily over the last several weeks, with Carson Wentz’ weak performances causing many to ask whether he should stay with the Colts in 2022.
If the Colts were to trade him away and get a new quarterback, who could be available to trade for and what would it look like? The Rams and Lions made a blockbuster trade, with the Rams trading Jared Goff, a similar quarterback to Wentz in the sense that he wasn’t good enough to win a Super Bowl for them, for someone who could, like Matthew Stafford. The Rams had to give up 2 first round picks (2022 and 2023), a 3rd round pick (2021) and Goff to get Stafford.
With that in mind, what are the chances the Colts have a new quarterback on the roster in 2022 and what would it take or cost them to get and keep him. The Colts do not have a 1st round pick in 2022, but have every other pick in 2022 besides a 6th round pick. They have all their picks in 2023 and 2024.
Carson Wentz
Despite all the talk of moving on from Wentz, it seems all too likely that Wentz will be back in Indy in 2022. He has a very strong relationship with head coach Frank Reich, who is not going anywhere, and the Colts committed a 1st round pick to him, which is usually a sign that they want him around for more than a year. The Colts front office can talk themselves into getting him more weapons and a better left tackle and building around Wentz for 2022. He is on the roster, it wouldn’t be easy to move him, especially after his finish to the season and I’m not sure they want to head into their 5th straight season with a new starting quarterback. While it doesn’t look like Wentz will be a Colt for the next 5-10 years, he probably will be the team’s starting quarterback for 2022.
Cost to Trade for: None
2022 Cap Hit: $28,294,119
Likelihood of being a Colt in 2022: 75%
Derek Carr
Of all the potential options, this is probably my favourite because there is a chance (although not high) this could happen and Carr would definitely be an upgrade over Wentz. It would cost a similar price to the Stafford for Goff switch. Carr has consistently been in the 10-15 range of the best quarterbacks in the NFL list for the last 5-6 years and has done an admirable job despite many different coordinators (5 different playcallers in his career). His passer rating has always been in the 90s and that has always been with average at best talent around him. If the Colts were to build around Carr or Wentz, Carr is the better option and I do truly believe that Carr is good enough to win a Super Bowl. He is definitely a class or two below the Allen’s, Mahomes and Rodgers of the NFL, but his potential with a good, stable coaching staff as well as top tier talent (Taylor, Pittman, strong offensive line plus potential new talent) could bring him in the Tier 2 of NFL quarterbacks.
While I can dream about this scenario, the odds of this are not likely. The Raiders made the playoffs on the back of Carr and he has been the backbone of the Raiders for the last few years. He has not requested a trade, so I would put the odds of him not being a Raider in 2022 at 25%. However, if he were to be traded, I could see Indy as being one of the 3-4 most likely destinations for him.
Cost to Trade for: Carson Wentz + 2022 3rd Round Pick + 2023 1st Round Pick + 2023 3rd Round Pick
2022 Cap Hit: $19,877,519
Likelihood of being a Colt in 2022: 15%
Aaron Rodgers
His name has been thrown around a million times, with many citing a poor relationship or a change a scenery. The reality is, the Packers were one of the 3-4 best teams in football in 2021 and suffered a tough defeat against a team they would beat 7 times out of 10 and they have one of the best overall rosters and a strong head coach. The odds of Rodgers being traded are very unlikely, which means the odds of him being traded to the Colts are extremely unlikely. The real question should be will Rodgers play in 2022, and if he does decide to return, it will almost certainly be with the Packers.
For the Colts, it makes no sense to trade for Rodgers, especially for the expected asking amount. The Colts might get 2 good years out of Rodgers before he decides to retire, so as good as Rodgers is, it’s not worth giving up so much for a short-term rental.
Cost to Trade for: Carson Wentz + 2022 2nd Round Pick + 2022 4th Round Pick + 2023 1st Round Pick + 2024 1st Round Pick
2022 Cap Hit: $19,947,018 (if traded before June 1st)
Likelihood of being a Colt in 2022: 1%
Russell Wilson
This trade is exactly the same as Stafford deal, but the Colts have a slightly better quarterback in Wentz (vs Goff) and the Seahawks have a slightly better quarterback in Wilson (vs Stafford). In the end, the difference between Wilson and Wentz is around the same as Stafford and Goff.
The odds of Wilson approving a deal to Indianapolis is probably not very high since there are rumours his wife wants to go to New York, which is more of a glamorous city for people like her. The odds of Wilson even getting traded are not high (probably around 25%). However, a good team is in place for Wilson if he does decide to make Indy a potential trade place.
Cost to Trade for: Carson Wentz + 2022 3rd Round Pick + 2023 1st Round Pick + 2024 1st Round Pick
2022 Cap Hit: $11,000,000 (if traded before June 1st)
Likelihood of being a Colt in 2022: 5%
Jimmy Garoppolo
While Wentz and Jimmy G are similar in terms of value, Jimmy is currently leading the 49ers on a fierce playoff run and already has a Super Bowl run on his resume. He has an all time record of 45-18 as a starter, whereas Wentz is 44-40-1. Pure and simple, it may not be pretty sometimes, but Jimmy G knows how to win. The Colts would definitely have to give up more to get Jimmy G, but it’s not likely that the 49ers will want to move on from Jimmy to make such a lateral (at best) move.
Cost to Trade for: Carson Wentz + 2022 3rd Round Pick + 2023 2nd Round Pick
2022 Cap Hit: $25,500,000
Likelihood of being a Colt in 2022: 3%
Teddy Bridgewater
Bridgewater is a free agent, but Bridgewater and Wentz are very similar in terms of what they can add in terms of value. Bridgewater is probably the opposite of Wentz in terms of how he is as a quarterback, but he’s not a player who can add 1 or 2 more wins to the Colts. We have to remember that the Broncos had a very strong roster in 2021 with a top 10 skill player unit, a good (not great) offensive line and a very strong defense (top 7 in football), yet they didn’t have a winning record. It’s not all on Teddy, but he doesn’t move the needle for any team, so with Wentz on the roster, Bridgewater would just be a waste of cap space.
Cost to Trade for: None (free agent)
2022 Cap Hit: $10M-$15M (estimate based on potential contract)
Likelihood of being a Colt in 2022: 1%
Gardner Minshew
Whenever Minshew plays, he shows that he is a capable starting quarterback in the NFL. The question is, does Minshew make the Colts better and give them a better chance of winning a Super Bowl. The answer is no. He can play well in spurts, but he hasn’t proven he can be a winning quarterback in the NFL (yet). Also, it may not be in the best interest of the Colts to create a quarterback controversy with Wentz and Minshew as Wentz has proven in the past that internal controversy causes big issues to his play. Minshew wouldn’t be a bad option, but I feel the Colts will go all in on Wentz or get another guy to start, so creating a quarterback battle isn’t in their best interest.
Cost to Trade for: 2022 4th Round Pick
2022 Cap Hit: $965,000
Likelihood of being a Colt in 2022: 2%
Kirk Cousins
Cousins’ name has been thrown out there as a trade candidate and the offense wasn’t an issue for the Vikings in 2021. In fact, the Vikings looked pitiful without him in their do-or-die Week 17 matchup against the Packers. Nevertheless, it’s still worth exploring and while he is an upgrade over Wentz, does adding Cousins make the Colts Super Bowl contenders? Even with a loaded roster, I don’t think so, so the fact that he doesn’t move the needle and the fact that he’s most likely not on the trade block makes this the most unlikely scenario.
Cost to Trade for: Carson Wentz + 2022 3rd Round Pick + 2023 2nd Round Pick + 2024 2nd Round Pick
2022 Cap Hit: $35,000,000 (if traded before June 1st)
Likelihood of being a Colt in 2022: > 1%
A Rookie Quarterback
The Colts may very well draft a quarterback, but it will most likely be as a backup. This year’s quarterback crop is not very strong and has gotten some 2013 class comparisons. Not only are there not many great options at quarterback, the Colts don’t have a 1st round pick to get one of the better ones, so the odds of them getting a quarterback who is capable of starting right away in the 2nd or 3rd round is very unlikely. In fact, I would bet that in the short term none of the rookie options are better than the current version of Wentz.
Cost to Trade for: 1 draft pick (ranging from round 2 to round 7)
2022 Cap Hit: Anywhere from 750k to 1.5M
Likelihood of being a Colt in 2022: Drafted — 50% | Drafted and Start (barring injury) — 3%
Sam Ehlinger
With all due respect to Ehlinger, he didn’t show any flashes in training camp and preseason and doesn’t possess the arm talent to be a top quarterback in the league. He is and always will be a backup at best in the NFL, which means that if the Colts start him in 2022, they will not be making the playoffs and essentially give up on the season. There’s a good chance he’s around as a backup, but almost no chance as a starter.
Cost to Trade for: None
2022 Cap Hit: $857,767
Likelihood of being a Colt in 2022: 50% (as backup) | > 1% (as starter)
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