Will David Ortiz make the Baseball Hall of Fame? Maybe, but other Boston Red Sox legends (Curt Schilling, Roger Clemens) have lesser chance

FILE - In this June 23, 2017, file photo, Boston Red Sox baseball great David Ortiz wipes a tear at Fenway Park in Boston as the team retires his number "34" worn when he led the franchise to three World Series titles. Ortiz was back in Boston for medical care after authorities said the former Red Sox slugger affectionately known as Big Papi was ambushed by a gunman at a bar in his native Dominican Republic. A plane carrying the 43-year-old retired athlete landed Monday night, June 10, 2019, after a flight from the Dominican Republic, the team said. (AP Photo/Elise Amendola, File)
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On Tuesday evening, the debate -- at least for this year -- will come to an end. The 2022 Baseball Hall of Fame results will be announced, ending the most controversial cycle of Hall voting in recent memory.

Unlike in previous years, it’s not a sure thing that any player gets in via the BBWAA voting process. But it doesn’t seem like there will be a large class joining the six Veterans Committee inductees (Jim Kaat, Tony Oliva and the late Bud Fowler, Gil Hodges, Minnie Miñoso and Buck O’Neil) who will be enshrined in Cooperstown this summer.

As of Monday morning, the team at BBHOFTracker.com -- led by Ryan Thibodaux -- had received 182 (172 public and 10 anonymous) of the estimated 392 ballots that are expected to be submitted. That means 46.4% of BBWAA ballots are publicly known already.

These early polls can’t tell us everything, but they do give a general idea of who has a shot to get in and who doesn’t. When it comes to the nine former Red Sox players on the ballot, there appears to be promising news for David Ortiz and bad news for the rest -- including Roger Clemens and Curt Schilling.

As of now, here are how those former Red Sox are faring in the Hall of Fame vote. Note that to be elected, players need to receive votes on 75% of submitted ballots and that writers can vote for a maximum of 10 players per ballot.

DAVID ORTIZ (1st year on ballot) -- 84.1% of counted votes

Ortiz, in his first time on the ballot, leads all candidates with 84.1% of the votes so far. That number clears the 75% threshold by a good margin but doesn’t guarantee Ortiz will get in, as the final numbers tend to come in lower than the tracker’s early count. Players who have been at all linked to steroid use have been especially punished by the non-public vote; Ortiz, of course, falls under this category because of a nebulous 2003 positive test result.

At this point, it seems like Ortiz will be very close to the 75% threshold, making it a toss-up with less than 48 hours to go before results are announced. Even if Big Papi doesn’t get in, his first-year showing on a crowded ballot portends well for his future chances. The question is not if he’ll ever get in; it’s whether or not he’ll be a first-ballot Hall of Famer.

ROGER CLEMENS (10th year) -- 76.9% of counted votes

Clemens, along with Barry Bonds, Curt Schilling and Sammy Sosa, is on the ballot for the 10th and final time. Though he’s currently clearing the 75% mark (and 76.9% is higher than the 61.6% he received last year), it’s almost certain he doesn’t get in. The non-public voters will not be kind to either Clemens or Bonds.

If Clemens and Bonds fall off the ballot (which appears likely due to their ties to PED use), they will no longer be at the mercy of the BBWAA. Instead, their candidacies will be assessed by Veterans Committees in the future.

CURT SCHILLING (10th year) -- 61.0% of counted votes

The tracker results have been harsher toward Schilling than any of the other players. After receiving 71.1% of the vote -- and unsuccessfully asking to be taken off the ballot -- a year ago, Schilling’s vote total has hovered around the 60% mark and now sits at 61%. Most notably, Schilling has lost a net of 22 votes from last year. Considering he missed election by only 16 votes in 2021, that’s not good news for him.

At this point, Schilling needs a very strong showing from the non-public voters, which is unlikely considering his contentious relationship with the BBWAA. In all likelihood, his final number will come in significantly lower than it did in 2021.

BILLY WAGNER (7th year) -- 48.9% of counted votes

Wagner, who was only a member of the Red Sox for a brief stretch in 2009, got 46.4%. of the vote last year and will likely finish around that same number in 2022. He won’t make it this year but has been steadily trending up and could have a real shot once some of the other players come off the ballot. He will have three years left after 2022.

MANNY RAMIREZ (6th year) -- 37.4% of counted votes

Ramirez, who was twice suspended for PED use, is trending up after getting just 28.2% in each of the last two years (and 22.8% in 2019). He won’t get in this year but will be an interesting case moving forward as opinions evolve about how to treat steroid users. He’ll have four years of eligibility remaining.

JONATHAN PAPELBON (1st year) -- 0.5% of counted votes

Papelbon has gotten one vote -- from Ian Harrison. He has already been eliminated from contention. Barring a miracle, Papelbon won’t get the 5% of votes required to stay on the ballot next year.

A.J. PIERZYNSKI (1st year) -- 0.5% of counted votes

Pierzynski has also gotten exactly one vote, from T.R. Sullivan. He is likely to fall off the ballot.

CARL CRAWFORD (1st year) -- 0.0% of counted votes

No one has voted for Crawford yet, so he obviously won’t make the Hall. He’s unlikely to receive enough votes to clear 5% and be back on the ballot in 2023.

JAKE PEAVY (1st year) -- 0.0% of counted votes

Peavy has similarly received zero votes in his first year of eligibility. He will almost certainly fall off the ballot after one year.

Related links:

Baseball Hall of Fame debate: MassLive’s 4 BBWAA members discuss David Ortiz, Roger Clemens, Curt Schilling, others on new Fenway Rundown podcast

David Ortiz, Curt Schilling among 9 former Boston Red Sox players on 2022 Baseball Hall of Fame ballot

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