Atlanta Hawks at Charlotte Hornets odds, picks and predictions

USA Today Sportsbookwire

The Atlanta Hawks (20-25) meet their Southeast Division co-tenant the Charlotte Hornets (26-20) Sunday at Spectrum Center for a 7 p.m. ET tip-off. Below, we look at the Hawks vs. Hornets odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Atlanta won and covered its third consecutive game by squeaking past the Miami Heat 110-108 Friday as a 1.5-point home favorite.

The Hawks are 3-4 straight-up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) with a minus-5.6 adjusted net rating (ranked 25th) and a minus-4.4 ATS margin (ranked 28th) over the last two weeks, according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).

Charlotte is also on a three-game win and cover streak with the latest being a 121-98 beatdown of the Oklahoma City Thunder as an 8.5-point home favorite Friday.

The Hornets are 5-1 SU and ATS with the second-best adjusted net rating at plus-10.2 and the best ATS margin at plus-7.3 in the last 14 days, per CTG.

These teams split the first two meetings this season with the road team winning and covering both. Also, the Under has cashed in four of the last five Hawks-Hornets games.

Hawks at Hornets odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:23 p.m. ET.

Money line: Hawks +130 (bet $100 to win $130) | Hornets -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Hawks +3.5 (-110) | Hornets -3.5 (-110)
Over/Under (O/U): 235.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Hawks at Hornets key injuries

Hawks

SF Danilo Gallinari (Achilles) questionable
SG Kevin Huerter (hip) questionable
SG Bogdan Bogdanovic (knee) out

Hornets

SF Jalen McDaniels (ankle) out

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Hawks at Hornets odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Hornets 124, Hawks 117

Money line

PASS with a heavy "lean" towards the Hornets (-160) since they are on the fringe of my price range for an NBA regular-season money line favorite.

For what it's worth, Charlotte is 6-2 SU as a home favorite and Atlanta is 5-10 SU as a road underdog.

Against the spread

"LEAN" to the HORNETS -3.5 (-110) for a half unit because I prefer the Over more than the sides in this game. However, this is a better spot for Charlotte.

The Hornets are an NBA-best 15-4 ATS at home with a plus-3.6 ATS margin. While the Hawks are 8-15 ATS on the road with a minus-1.9 ATS margin, 3-7 ATS on the road versus teams above-.500 and 5-10 ATS as road underdogs.

Ultimately, the dealbreaker for my "LEAN" to the HORNETS -3.5 (-110) is how bad the Hawks are in tight games. Atlanta is 29th in clutch net rating at minus-22.6 while Charlotte is 17th at minus-0.4. "Clutch" is defined by a game that's within a 5-point margin with five minutes or less in regulation.

Over/Under

BET the OVER 235.5 (-110) for 1 unit because both teams are awesome offensively and weak defensively. Plus both have edges they can exploit.

Charlotte gets out in transition at the highest rate in the league and is second in fastbreak points per game (PPG). Whereas Atlanta has the worst transition defensive efficiency and is 20th in fastbreak PPG allowed.

However, Atlanta can pick-and-roll (PnR) Charlotte to death. The Hawks initiate PnR action through the ball handler at the second-highest rate and the Hornets rank 26th in defensive efficiency versus ball handlers in PnR.

On top of that, Atlanta is second in offensive efficiency in the PnR through the roll-man and Charlotte's defensive efficiency versus the roll-man grades in the 35th percentile.

Also, this total is shockingly high considering the head-to-head O/U trend between these two teams. In fact, this total is 11.5 points higher than the most recent Hawks-Hornets meeting, Dec. 5. But, that game soared over the total of 225 by 32 points and I like this meeting to go Over as well.

BET the OVER 235.5 (-110).

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