Rams or Bucs: Which is a better matchup for 49ers in NFC Championship Game?

It wasn’t pretty, but the 49ers went into the frozen tundra that is Green Bay and pulled off another road upset, beating the Packers 13-10 to advance to the NFC Championship Game.

It took a stout defensive effort and the best special teams effort of the season to defeat the elements, the likely NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. But this imperfect San Francisco team did just that, and they’re now just one win away from heading to their eighth Super Bowl in franchise history.

Now, the Niners know they’ll play in much warmer weather next week, even if they will have to wait to know exactly who they face until Sunday afternoon. But whoever wins between the No. 2 seed Buccaneers and No. 4 seed Rams, the Niners will once again have to play on the road.

So, who should the 49ers hope to see next week? Let’s take a look at each possible opponent.

The case for the Rams

It’s still a little crazy to think about, given that the Rams have been one of the NFL’s best teams in the last fives years, but there may be no better matchup for the 49ers than this team.

The Rams are legitimately good, having won the NFC West at 12-5 this year and racking up 55 wins in the last five regular seasons (only the Chiefs and Saints have more). They’ve continued to accentuate their star-studded roster with trades, adding pass rusher Von Miller and wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. during the season after trading for quarterback Matthew Stafford in the offseason.

And yet, the 49ers have owned the Rams over the last three seasons, winning all six matchups between the NFC West rivals — and yes, that includes in the 49ers’ disappointing 2020 year. San Francisco has won some of them by the slimmest of margins, particularly the Week 18 matchup this year that the 49ers had to win in Los Angeles in order to make the playoffs.

When the 49ers have the ball, it’s a dream set-up for Kyle Shanahan’s offense. The Rams have built their defense around being fearsome against the pass, allowing the second-fewest passing touchdowns (17) and tied for third in interceptions (19). Their pass rush is also lethal, finishing the regular season third in sacks with 50. They want opponents to try and throw it against them.

But the 49ers pride themselves on running the ball over and over again and have had no shame in pounding a defense into submission. It’s basically what happened in Week 10, when the Niners ran it 44 times for 156 yards in a 31-10 trouncing of the Rams, only attempting 19 passes. Even in the Week 18 matchup, when the 49ers had to come back from down 17 points, they still ran it 31 times to get their offense into rhythm.

On the other end, the 49ers pass rush has battered the Rams front in both 2021 matchups, getting seven sacks and helping force Stafford into two interceptions in each game. Los Angeles only attempted 10 rushes in the first matchup, but the second game saw them try to run it a lot more, but the San Francisco defense held them to 64 yards on 27 carries.

The Rams’ pass-catching weapons are, without question, the best strength on their offense, and the 49ers still had issues containing MVP candidate Cooper Kupp in Week 18 even when playing a relatively good game. The status of emerging rookie cornerback Ambry Thomas, who missed the Packers game with a bone bruise, will be worth keeping an eye on.

The case for the Bucs

If you’re looking for the best narrative left in the playoffs, Tampa Bay and its ageless wonder of a quarterback Tom Brady hosting his former protege in Garoppolo and the 49ers could not be beat around the NFL. Where would ratings be highest for this game locally: the San Francisco Bay Area, the Tampa Bay area … or Boston?

The fact that Brady, a Serra-San Mateo graduate who grew up a massive 49ers fan, was reportedly willing to come to the 49ers after they lost the Super Bowl two years ago only adds more layers to the narrative here. Both quarterbacks can rightly feel like a team chose the other over them at one point or another.

But when it comes to on-field matchups, the Bucs may be the worst matchup left for the 49ers. They’re renowned for their rush defense, allowing the third-fewest rushing yards per game (92.7) of any team in the NFL. They also pressure the quarterback (28.6 percent) more than any defense except Buffalo and have forced 29 turnovers, tied for fifth-best in the NFL.

It’s a well-rounded, elite defense … but one that blitzes heavily, with a 40.8% blitz rate that’s highest in the NFL in this regular season. If teams can complete their passes quickly, they can get yards after the catch (YAC) — which the 49ers lead the league in on a per-catch basis (6.6 YAC per completion).

Offensively, Brady is continuing to cheat Father Time while leading an incredible aerial attack. Brady led the league in completions (485), attempts (719), yards (5,316) and passing touchdowns (43). Tampa Bay’s elite offensive line kept Brady clean, allowing a league-low 23 sacks. They will undoubtedly be the toughest passing challenge to the 49ers secondary — and that’s even if Thomas can play.

Injuries have taken their toll on the Bucs, who lost wide receiver Chris Godwin for the season with a major knee injury. On Sunday against the Rams, they’ll be without wide receiver Breshad Perriman (hip/abdomen), running back Ronald Jones (ankle) and may not have starting offensive linemen Ryan Jensen (ankle) and Tristan Wirfs (ankle).

And as always is the question: what in the world happens if the 44-year-old Brady gets hurt? Former 49er Blaine Gabbert is the backup, but perhaps no team is more dependent on a single player than the Buccaneers are for Brady. He hasn’t missed a game since 2016 (the 4-game DeflateGate suspension) and hasn’t missed due to injury since 2008, but it’s always something to monitor.

Verdict

While it would be incredibly fun to have a Garoppolo-Brady, 49ers-Buccaneers NFC Championship Game down in Tampa Bay, the better matchup for the 49ers is very clearly the Rams.

And, if they get a third crack at their NFC West opponent in this season, it’s safe to guess that their fans will swarm SoFi Stadium once again and make it feel like a home-away-from-home, just like they did in Week 18.