Gary Russell Jr. hasn’t stepped into a prizefighting ring in nearly two years. Even though the featherweight titlist is one of the best pure boxers in the sport, his lack of activity during his career will be a detriment whenever future observers think about Russell’s legacy and how to rank him among the best of his era. On Saturday, Mark Magsayo will try to tarnish that legacy with his own fists. Here’s everything you need to know about Gary Russell Jr. vs. Mark Magsayo, including the odds, their records and a prediction on who will win.
The last time we saw Russell, Covid-19 hadn’t been declared a pandemic yet, and observers were hoping that Russell finally would be willing to fight more than once a year (the last time that occurred was 2014). Russell beat Tugstsogt Nayambayer by unanimous decision, and then Russell just kind of disappeared for a while.
He continues to claim that he wants to fight the best in and around the 126-pound weight class, but for the most part, Russell has been facing mandatory title opponents (Russell has talked about wanting to fight Gervonta “Tank” Davis and to get a second shot at Vasiliy Lomachenko, but obviously, neither has happened). Magsayo appears to be talented, but as long as Russell is as good as he was two years, he probably won’t be a huge hindrance to Russell.
“I’ve been willing to compete against whoever, whenever and wherever,” Russell said. “But I can’t force these guys to get in the ring and fight me. I just have to prepare to the best of my ability. I need a dance partner.
“If I’m going to move up in weight, I want to fight the champion. I’m not planning to move up in weight just to stand in line. I’m fighting Magsayo because he moved up the rankings and earned this spot. Everyone who I’ve competed against has been the next best guy under the champion.”
The list of so-so Russell opponents include Patrick Hyland, Oscar Escandon and Nyambayer. Two of his defeated foes, though, have improved with age—Joseph Diaz, who beat Tevin Farmer to win a junior lightweight title and who gave a good account of himself vs. Devin Haney; and Kiko Martinez, who upset Kid Galahad two months ago to win his featherweight belt. Apparently, though, that list hasn’t impressed Magsayo.
“I don’t think Gary has faced anyone since he became champion that has the skills that I have,” Magsayo said. “I’m going to go in there to show him something he’s never seen before and we’ll see how he reacts.”
Here’s more info on the Gary Russell Jr. vs. Mark Magsayo showdown that U.S. viewers can watch on Showtime beginning at 9 p.m. ET.
Gary Russell Jr. vs. Mark Magsayo odds
As expected, Russell is the betting favorite but maybe not as much of a favorite as I would have thought. If I were guessing at the money line, I might have gone something like Russell at -700 and Magsayo at +400. But at BetOnline.ag, Russell is -400 (bet $400 to win $100) and Magsayo is +275 (win $275 on a $100 wager), and at BetMGM, Russell is -350 and Magsayo is +275.
I’m not sure there’s a ton of value betting either money line, but I like some of the prop bets, particularly Russell winning by unanimous decision at -125 (the most likely outcome for the fight, in my opinion) or in Magsayo winning by KO/TKO at +550 (the most likely way Magsayo could pull off the upset).
But just in case you like Magsayo, here was some interesting news on Friday.
Russell, by the way, did eventually make weight at 125.5. But Russell coming in over weight temporarily is an interesting tidbit.
UPDATE: With Russell suffering a shoulder injury in training camp, essentially making him a one-armed fighter on Saturday night, he couldn’t hold off Magsayo, who pulled the upset by majority decision and took Russell’s title (two judges had it 115-113, and one judge had it 114-114 (I also had it 115-113 for Magsayo)).
So, if you bet Magsayo’s money line, you won $275 on a $100 bet, and if you had him winning by decision, you cashed it at +750.
Gary Russell Jr. vs. Mark Magsayo records
Despite the fact he’s fought just six times in the past eight years, Russell’s record of 31-1 (18 KOs) is still impressive. His only loss came to Lomachenko, but Russell has proved himself at the world-class level even if many of his opponents have been sub-par. Thirteen years into his career, Russell STILL hasn’t had a signature fight, something he’s acknowledged in recent interviews. If he beats Magsayo, maybe he’d finally get one.
For the third time in his last four fights, Russell will face an undefeated boxer. In Magsayo’s case, he’s 23-0 with 16 KOs. His best victory came five months ago when he stopped Julio Ceja in the 10th round, one fight after Ceja had a world title draw vs. Brandon Figueroa. To beat Ceja, Magsayo had to survive a fifth-round knockdown. “I learned a lot from the Ceja fight,” Magsayo said. “That gave me a lesson on how to adjust in the middle of a fight. It’s going to help me against Russell.”
Gary Russell Jr. vs. Mark Magsayo prediction
Russell is such a good fighter that it’s a shame we don’t see more of him. And it stinks that we haven’t seen him get his signature fight. Magsayo does have good power, and he has the backing of Manny Pacquiao. But Russell is going to use his speed and talent to out-class Magsayo and score the unanimous decision victory. Somewhere in the 117-111 range.
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