When the Bills run: The Bills are killing it lately on the ground, averaging 163.8 rushing yards per game over the past six weeks. Devin Singletary has been a big part of that, including last week against the Patriots when he gained 81 yards and scored a pair of touchdowns on 16 carries. According to the NFL’s Next Gen Stats, Singletary had a plus-21 rushing yards over expected, a metric that tracks how many yards a ball carrier is expected to gain based on the movements and locations of all players. Singletary has had positive rushing yards over expectation in three straight games. Put another way, he’s performed better than an “average” running back would be expected in those games. He’s scored touchdowns in five straight games, and perhaps just as importantly, hasn’t fumbled in nine straight games. Bills quarterback Josh Allen continues to be a problem for defenses on the ground. He rushed six times for 66 yards against the Patriots last week, and has topped 60 yards in four straight games and five of the past six. EDGE: Bills.
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When the Bills pass: Allen doesn’t turn 26 until May 21. Why point that out now? Well, Jim Kelly didn’t come to Buffalo until he was 26. After the way he played against the Patriots last week, it only feels like a matter of time before Allen breaks all of Kelly’s records with the Bills. Allen completed passes to nine different receivers last week, so he’s got a lot of different ways to beat you. He also blew up the narrative that he struggles in cold weather by completing 84% of his passes. The Bills should expect to see a lot of press coverage from Kansas City. The Chiefs used in on 68% of the routes against the Steelers last weekend. According to Next Gen Stats, that’s the most by a team over the last six years. The Chiefs used press coverage 40% of the time in the regular season, which led the NFL. EDGE: Bills.
When the Chiefs run: Jerick McKinnon had just 25 touches during the regular season, but came close to matching that total Sunday against the Steelers in the first round of the playoffs. With Clyde Edwards-Helaire out because of a shoulder injury, McKinnon stepped in and rushed 12 times for 61 yards. Even if Edwards-Helaire is back in the lineup, it would be a big surprise if the Chiefs went away from McKinnon, who has the hot hand. The Bills’ run defense limited the Patriots to just 57 yards on 17 carries by running backs last week, a very solid showing. EDGE: Even.
When the Chiefs pass: Tackling in the open field will be huge for the Bills. The Chiefs gained 269 of their 405 receiving yards after the catch against the Steelers in the wild-card round, the second-most YAC in a playoff game since 2016, according to Next Gen Stats. McKinnon led the way with 106 yards after the catch, even though he had just 81 receiving yards on six catches, which shows how many passes he caught behind the line of scrimmage. Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes threw five touchdowns in just 11 minutes of game time against the Steelers. He needed just three quarters to pile up 386 passing yards against Pittsburgh. The Bills have allowed just one 300-yard passer all season – Tampa Bay’s Tom Brady. EDGE: Chiefs.
Special teams: There is some level of concern after Bills kicker Tyler Bass had two of his extra points blocked last week against New England, and bounced another one off the upright and in. The Bills had not had any problems in the operation before, so perhaps the cold played a part. The Bills’ punt coverage unit will have to be on its game. Kansas City’s Mecole Hardman reached 21.07 mph last week on his 48-yard punt return, the fastest speed by a player on the opening weekend of the playoffs and Hardman’s fastest clocked speed of the season, according to Next Gen Stats. EDGE: Chiefs.
Coaching: Kansas City got off to a sluggish start against the Steelers last weekend, failing to score on its first five possessions. From that point on, however, the Chiefs were absolutely on fire. Under Andy Reid, the Chiefs are 6-1 in their last seven playoff games, with the only loss coming in Super Bowl LV. Kansas City is aiming to become the fourth team since 1970 to make it to four straight conference championship games. Bills coach Sean McDermott’s team is the only one in the NFL to be ranked in the top five in both total offense and total defense. There aren’t a lot of secrets left between these two head coaches, who of course know each other so well. EDGE: Even.
Prediction: Bills 31, Chiefs 24.