Affordable housing beware: A real estate boom is coming to Tallahassee | Opinion
The convergence of baby boomers retiring, remote work becoming commonplace, and climate change creating an exodus from South Florida and coastal areas will result in a decades-long explosion of real estate prices in Tallahassee.
“Baby boomers,” born between 1946 and 1964, (aged 76 to 58, respectively) make up almost 22% of the U.S. population. Many of them had to postpone retirement to rebuild the savings they lost in the 2008 recession or just simply because improved healthcare has allowed them to work longer. However, now they’re finally starting to retire.
And where do they want to live out their days? Some place warmer. Some place without snow. Some place with no state income tax. Some place called Florida.
The same goes for remote workers of all ages because you don’t pay income tax based on where your employer is headquartered, you pay it based on where you reside. That’s another good case for moving to Florida. People are moving here in droves and this population boom has just started.
Now, combine this mass migration with the reality that climate change is causing sea levels to rise as well as more frequent and severe hurricanes. This makes South Florida and other coastal areas a much less attractive prospect for relocation.
So, where will they all go? There’s a well-documented trend of seniors retiring to college towns due to the quality of life these youthful, culture-rich towns provide. Combine this with Tallahassee’s inland insulation from hurricane impacts and cheaper real estate prices (compared to California, New England, and South Florida), and one can deduce that our community is poised for a population explosion.
What will the result of this be? Well, if you think housing in Tallahassee is getting over-priced now then brace yourselves because it’s going to get much higher.
How do we keep housing affordable in Tallahassee? At risk of over-simplifying a complex issue, at its foundation, there’s a basic economic formula. When demand exceeds supply, prices increase.
We already have a housing supply shortage. Now, with a tidal wave of population growth because of baby boomers, remote workers, and climate change, it’s going to get dire. We need more housing supply and we need to start building it now.
The housing demand is coming and there’s nothing we can do to stop it. If we build to meet this upcoming demand then we will have many new residents importing their wealth into our community from income sources outside our community, a perfect combination to create prosperity for the many (not just the few) in Tallahassee.
However, if we don’t start building to meet this demand then we will have a “tale of two cities” with our long-time locals growing bitter and xenophobic of new residents driving up prices.
Let’s get prepared. Let’s build it, because, either way, they will come.
Adam Boynton Kaye is a seventh-generation Tallahassee native, the co-owner of Railroad Square Art District, and the principal of Art District Real Estate.
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