The Nets were dealt a serious blow last week when Kevin Durant went down with a knee injury against New Orleans. Durant will be “re-evaluated” in 4-6 weeks.
Though his postseason status seems to be in no danger, his MVP campaign is. Prior to the injury, Durant — who is averaging 29.3 points, 7.4 rebounds and 5.8 assists on 52.0 percent shooting — was the second choice on the board at +275 at DraftKings. But his injury knocked his price down to 13/1, and it’s Giannis Antetokounmpo who is second on the board now at +330. Most assume Stephen Curry, the 3/2 betting favorite, now has a clear path to win his third MVP, but this race is much more open than that
Not only has Durant’s injury shifted the landscape for the award, but Curry’s play has, as well. Over the course of his past 21 games, Curry is shooting just 38.2 percent from the floor and 35 percent from 3-point range. If we remove his 2019-20 season, in which he played just five games, his effective field-goal percentage would be the lowest it has been since his rookie year, and his 38.4 percent shooting from deep would be a career low. How is that the résumé of a player who has a 40 percent chance to win MVP? It’s not, so our quest should now go further down the board.
Ja Morant has been bandied about as a contender, and the market has been snatching up tickets on him. One shop even has Morant as low as 8/1 to win the award which, to me, is lunacy. He’s 14/1 at BetMGM. The Grizzlies went 10-2 SU when Morant missed 12 games with injury, and their net rating when he is off the floor (5.9) is better than the possessions with him on the floor (2.6).
The name to truly watch is Joel Embiid, who can be found around 13/1 at most shops. Embiid has been an unstoppable force, putting up 30.6 points and 10.3 rebounds per game since Dec. 3. The 76ers are 14-7 SU during the span. Philadelphia is just the sixth seed right now, but just two games separated the 76ers and Nets, who are third, entering Wednesday. Should Embiid maintain this level of play and somehow get Philadelphia to a top-three seed without Ben Simmons, he would have as good a case as any.
Warriors waning
The lack of production from Curry coincides with a slump from Golden State that extends back to the end of November. Since a loss to the Suns on Nov. 30, the Warriors are 14-10 SU and 10-14 ATS with a 2.0 net rating in non-garbage time minutes. The once-dominant title contender has looked downright average, and its offense has been the culprit.
The team’s shooting has all but disappeared. The Warriors rank third in frequency of 3-point attempts but are hitting just 35.2 percent of those shots, and their half-court offense is 22nd over the span. These struggles go hand-in-hand with Curry’s, and that should not be a surprise. This squad has always been reliant on Curry, and now that he has lost his touch the offense has absolutely no flow.
The absence of Draymond Green has not helped matters, either. Green will be out for the foreseeable future due to a calf injury that stems from a back issue. Green is known for his defensive prowess, but his presence also helps on the offensive end. With Green playing, the Warriors’ offensive rating improves by 1.8 points every 100 possessions, their effective field-goal percentage jumps 2.4 percent and their offensive efficiency in transition improves by 6.3 points every 100 plays. Barring a sudden reversion to form from Curry, this offense will continue to struggle, but the market has refused to budge, which means value in the form of betting against this team.