Want $1 Million? 2 Monster Growth Stocks to Buy Now and Hold for the Next Decade

Legendary investor Peter Lynch once told investors: "All you need for a lifetime of successful investing is a few big winners." He reasoned that the monster returns generated by a few investments would more than make up for any losses. And that makes sense. If you invest $10 in a stock, the worst outcome is a loss of $10. But there is no limit on the upside. That $10 could grow several-fold in value.

Unfortunately, there is no single formula or valuation metric that will help you pick big winners with absolute certainty. That's why it's important to build a diversified portfolio. Put another way, investors should aim to own at least 25 high-quality stocks. Doing so minimizes your exposure to any single business or industry, which helps reduce downside risk.

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With that in mind, Shopify (SHOP 1.03%) and Upstart Holdings (UPST -0.44%) look like good building blocks for a market-beating portfolio. In fact, I think both stocks could grow fourfold over the next 10 years, a pace that would turn $250,000 into $1 million.

Here's why.

1. Shopify

Shopify has become the retail operating system for over 1.7 million businesses. Its portfolio of software and services helps merchants manage sales across physical and digital storefronts, including websites, social platforms, and online marketplaces. Additionally, the Shopify App Store offers thousands of additional software solutions, such as tools for marketing and enterprise resource planning.

Of particular note, the company's business model differentiates it from rivals like Amazon. Specifically, Shopify helps merchants grow their brands and build lasting relationships with customers -- the company doesn't pull sellers onto a common marketplace then compete against them by selling similar products at cheaper prices.

Not surprisingly, Shopify's merchant-centric business model and broad product portfolio have it made quite popular with small- and medium-sized businesses, as evidenced by the company's impressive sales growth over the past 12 months.

Source: YCharts. TTM = trailing-12-months.

Impressively, Shopify has grown its bottom line even more quickly, as free cash flow surged 150% to $458 million over the past year. And the company is well-positioned to maintain that momentum, as its founder-led management team is executing on a robust growth strategy.

For instance, the Shopify Fulfillment Network leans on artificial intelligence and collaborative robots to help merchants ship orders more quickly and cost-effectively. And the Shop mobile app aims to drive buyer engagement and boost repeat purchases by making relevant product recommendations. In fact, despite launching in April 2020, the Shop app surpassed 118 million registered users in the second quarter of 2021, and that number continued to rise in the third quarter.

Shopify is currently the most popular e-commerce software platform on the market, powering 27% of all online storefronts. In short, the company has a strong competitive position, and management's ambitious vision should help Shopify capitalize on its $153 billion market opportunity. That's why I think this company could grow fourfold over the next 10 years, achieving a market cap of $550 billion.

2. Upstart Holdings

Upstart is a fintech company on a mission to modernize the consumer credit industry. Traditionally, banks have made lending decisions using relatively small data sets -- even the most sophisticated credit models incorporate just 30 variables. In turn, lenders frequently make the wrong decisions. That means some creditworthy borrowers are rejected, and those that are approved often pay too much in interest.

Upstart uses big data and artificial intelligence to make that system more efficient. Specifically, its platform captures over 1,600 data points per applicant and measures those variables against repayment events. Put another way, each time a borrower makes or misses a payment, Upstart's AI models get a little smarter, creating a flywheel effect: More data means better AI, and better AI means more lending partners (and more data).

Despite being a relatively young company, the early results are promising. Internal studies have shown that Upstart's AI models can reduce loss rates by 75%, while keeping approval rates constant. Alternatively, Upstart can boost approval rates by 173% while keeping loss rates constant. 

Given those results, lenders like banks, credit unions, and auto dealerships are adopting Upstart's platform at a rapid pace, and that has fueled an impressive top-line performance over the past year.

Source: YCharts. TTM = trailing-12-months.

Of particular note, unlike many high-growth companies, Upstart is profitable on a GAAP basis, as net income reached $77.5 million over the past 12 months. Even so, this fintech has hardly scratched the surface of its potential. In fact, Upstart powered $8.9 billion in loans in the last year, less than 2% of its $753 billion market opportunity, a figure that comprises both personal loan originations and auto loan originations in the U.S.

However, Upstart's market opportunity will likely continue to grow over the coming decade, as management has expressed interest in the $4.5 trillion mortgage origination industry. To that end, I wouldn't be surprised to see Upstart's market cap climb from $9 billion today to $36 billion in 10 years' time. That's why this growth stock looks like a smart long-term investment.