White House scrambles to clean up Biden gaffe that appeared to signal green light for ‘minor incursion’ by Russia into Ukraine

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‘MINOR INCURSION’ — MAJOR GAFFE: In his marathon news conference yesterday, President Joe Biden started out sounding tough on Vladimir Putin should the Russian president order his troops into Ukraine. “He’s never seen sanctions like the ones I promised will be imposed if he moves,” Biden said.

But then, in the next breath, Biden inexplicably seemed to signal that sanctions might not be so bad if Russia doesn’t go too far. “It depends on what it does,” he said. “It’s one thing if it’s a minor incursion, and then we end up having a fight about what to do and not do.”

Biden went on to say that if “they actually do what they’re capable of doing … invade Ukraine,” it would be a “disaster for Russia” with the U.S. and its allies ready to impose “severe costs and significant harm on Russia and the Russian economy.”

But by then, the “minor incursion” exception had ricocheted around the world and shocked U.S. allies in Europe. CNN’s Matthew Chance, reporting from the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv, said that officials there were aghast that Biden seemed to be giving Putin the green light for his “preferred option,” a limited military action to open a land corridor through Ukraine.

BIDEN PREDICTS RUSSIA-UKRAINE CONFLICT: ‘MINOR INCURSION’ COULD DIVIDE WESTERN ALLIES

NO SUCH THING AS A ‘MINOR INCURSION’: Alabama Rep. Mike Rogers, the top Republican on the House Armed Services Committee, was quick to pounce on Biden’s blunder in a statement released last night.

“Let’s be clear, Mr. President: an invasion of another country is an invasion. There is no such thing as a ‘minor incursion’ into another country, especially when Russia already occupies large portions of Ukraine,” Rogers said. “The Biden response has been almost as incoherent and disjointed as the remarks we heard from President Biden tonight.”

“I am very concerned by the weak, incoherent message we just heard from [Biden] on Ukraine,” tweeted Sen. Jim Inhofe, ranking Republican on the Senate Armed Services Committee. “This administration must be clear that ANY Putin move into Ukraine is unacceptable, and we should do more to impose costs on him.”

“Biden’s remarks on [Russia’s] buildup near [Ukraine] tonight were nothing short of a disaster,” tweeted Texas Rep. Michael McCaul, ranking Republican on the House Foreign Affairs Committee. “He shared the potential disunity of Western nations on tough sanctions and clearly gave Vladimir [Putin] the green light to launch a ‘minor incursion.’’’

“Hedging on the punishment Putin would face for a ‘minor’ invasion of [Ukraine] is the opposite of deterrence and is wildly dangerous.”

ZELENSKY ’DIDN’T SHY AWAY FROM ASKING FOR MORE’ FROM US, SENATOR SAYS

CLEANING UP THE MESS: Immediately following the conclusion of the nearly two-hour news conference, the White House went into frantic cleanup mode, with press secretary Jen Psaki forced to issue a statement about what the president meant to say.

“President Biden has been clear with the Russian president: If any Russian military forces move across the Ukrainian border, that’s a renewed invasion, and it will be met with a swift, severe, and united response from the United States and our allies,” Psaki said.

The statement didn’t reference the ‘minor incursion” comment directly but implied Biden was referring to something short of military action. “President Biden also knows from long experience that the Russians have an extensive playbook of aggression short of military action, including cyberattacks and paramilitary tactics,” the statement said. “And he affirmed today that those acts of Russian aggression will be met with a decisive, reciprocal, and united response.”

UKRAINE WARNS EUROPE WAR WITH RUSSIA WILL CREATE MASSIVE REFUGEE CRISIS

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HAPPENING TODAY: Secretary of State Antony Blinken is in Berlin for consultations with German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, who is just back from her meeting in Moscow with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.

Blinken meets with Lavrov tomorrow in Geneva and is scheduled to deliver a major speech from Berlin on the Ukraine crisis at 9:45 a.m. Washington time. Blinken’s remarks will be livestreamed on www.state.gov.

At a news conference in Kyiv with Ukraine’s defense minister, Blinken said the nearly 100,000 Russian troops massed on Ukraine’s border “could double in relatively short order,” and he previewed some of the themes of this morning’s speech.

“The world is watching what’s happening here,” Blinken said. “When Russia uses its strength to act with impunity against another sovereign nation, it makes other countries think that they too can violate the rules of international peace and security, and put their narrow interests ahead of the shared interests of the international community.”

GOP PUSHES GERMANY TO STOP NORD STREAM 2 OVER RUSSIA’S THREAT TO INVADE UKRAINE

ALSO TODAY: NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg meets with the Canadian Foreign Minister Melanie Joly at NATO Headquarters, while his deputy Mircea Geoana meets with Olga Stefanishyna, Ukraine’s deputy prime minister for European and Euro-Atlantic integration.

No press availability is planned.

BIDEN ON PUTIN: ‘MY GUESS IS HE WILL’: During his news conference, President Joe Biden made two predictions about what Russian President Vladimir Putin will do: He will invade, and he will regret it.

“I’m not so sure he is certain what he’s going to do. My guess is he will move in. He has to do something,” Biden said. “Do I think he’ll test the West, test the United States and NATO as significantly as he can? Yes, I think he will. But I think he’ll pay a serious and dear price for it that he doesn’t think now will cost him what it’s going to cost him. And I think he will regret having done it.”

Biden indicated there is some room for discussion on Putin’s two major demands, that Ukraine never joins NATO and that strategic (nuclear) weapons are never based in Ukraine.

While Biden said “a number of treaties” guarantee that nations “get to choose” who they want to be with, he noted “the likelihood that Ukraine is going to join NATO in the near term is not very likely.”

“So there’s room to work if he wants to do that,” Biden said.

OPINION: WHY BIDEN JUST SUGGESTED PUTIN WILL INVADE UKRAINE

NORTH KOREA TO RESTART ‘TEMPORARILY-SUSPENDED ACTIVITIES’: During a Wednesday meeting of North Korea’s Politburo, attended by leader Kim Jong Un, Pyongyang hinted its ready to end its self-imposed moratorium on nuclear testing.

A report by the state-controlled Korea Central News Network said the Political Bureau of the Party Central Committee “unanimously recognized that we should make more thorough preparation for a long-term confrontation with U.S. imperialism.”

“It concluded to take a practical action to more reliably and effectively increase our physical strength for defending the dignity, sovereign rights, and interests of our state,” the KCNA report said, an apparent reference to North Korea’s suspended nuclear program. “It gave an instruction … to promptly examine the issue of restarting all temporarily-suspended activities.”

Pyongyang blamed the U.S., saying it “viciously slurred our state and committed the foolish act of taking over 20 independent sanctions measures.”

“All the facts clearly prove once again that the hostile policy toward the DPRK will exist in the future, too, as long as there is the hostile entity of U.S. imperialism.”

KABUL STRIKE VIDEO RELEASED: The Pentagon has released two drone camera videos that show the Aug. 29 airstrike in Kabul, Afghanistan, that mistakenly targeted an innocent man and ended up killing 10 people, including seven children.

The videos were released after the New York Times filed a Freedom of Information Act lawsuit against U.S. Central Command.

The videos show the white Toyota Corolla driven by aid worker Zamarai Ahmadi being slowly backed into his family compound while a U.S. MQ-9 Reaper draws a bead on it with its laser targeting system. Just seconds before the Hellfire missile is unleashed, people can be seen in the thermal image, both in the courtyard and in the street.

A Pentagon investigation concluded the presence of other people was something easily missed in the heat of the moment.

WHY NO ONE WAS PUNISHED FOR FATALLY FLAWED US AIRSTRIKE THAT MISTAKENLY TARGETED AN INNOCENT MAN

TAXPAYERS DUE $21 MILLION REFUND: Following yesterday’s House Oversight Committee hearing into price gouging by TransDigm, the committee demanded the defense contractor reimburse the government for the overcharges.

“We expect TransDigm to pay back the outrageous excess profits,” said committee Chairwoman Rep. Carolyn Maloney at the close of the hearing. “All $20.8 million should be repaid. It received this money at the expense of our warfighters and American taxpayers. We expect you to repay this money to the taxpayers,” Maloney said.

TransDigm’s CEO Kevin Stein pushed back against the findings of the Pentagon’s inspector general. “I’ve said repeatedly, we see significant accounting and legal errors in this IG report,” said Stein. “We look forward to sitting down directly with the DoD. And I will tell you, congressman, that if we find that TransDigm made a mistake in any of our contracting, we will gladly pay money back.”

The inspector general found that TransDigm Group raked in $21 million in excess profits by acquiring companies with sole-source contracts for spare parts needed by the military and then raising prices dramatically. 

CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER

The Rundown

Washington Examiner: US racing at ‘Formula One speed’ to arm Ukraine

Washington Examiner: Biden predicts Russia-Ukraine conflict: ‘Minor incursion’ could divide Western allies

Washington Examiner: Ukraine warns Europe war with Russia will create massive refugee crisis

Washington Examiner: GOP pushes Germany to stop Nord Stream 2 over Russia’s threat to invade Ukraine

Washington Examiner: Zelensky ’didn’t shy away from asking for more’ from US, senator says

Washington Examiner: Texas synagogue hostage situation just the latest in jihadist obsession with Aafia Siddiqui

Washington Examiner: Marine Corps base used for housing Afghans struggled to track evacuees

Washington Examiner: Family of fallen marine sues Alec Baldwin for defamation

Washington Examiner: 19-year-old charged in North Carolina crash that killed 2 Marines and injured 17 others

Washington Examiner: Opinion: Why Biden just suggested Putin will invade Ukraine

Reuters: U.S. Clears Baltic States To Send U.S.-Made Weapons To Ukraine

Washington Post: CIA finds no ‘worldwide campaign’ by any foreign power behind mysterious Havana syndrome

Stars and Stripes: China’s Military Demands End To Navy Demonstrations In The South China Sea

USNI News: More Than Two Dozen Naval F-35s Now Underway In The Western Pacific

19fortyfive.com: The US Navy Just Showed Off Its Firepower in the South China Sea

Air Force Magazine: Kendall: Don’t Mirror China on Hypersonics; No ‘Big Bang’ on ABMS

Defense One: Navy Shouldn’t Build Next-Gen Destroyers Until Tech Is Proven, Navy Secretary Signals

Air Force Magazine: Space Force Foresees Need for Cislunar Space Domain Awareness Within Decade

New York Times: 2 Marines Killed And 17 Injured In Seven-Ton Vehicle Rollover In North Carolina

Marine Corps Times: Marine Corps To Allow Some Officers To Opt Out Of Promotion Boards

19fortyfive.com: Why US Special Forces Are Back in the Balkans

Washington Post: Opinion: House Republicans aim sanctions at Putin, his family and his mistress

Calendar

THURSDAY | JANUARY 20

11 a.m. — Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association virtual discussion: “DISA Restructuring to Move at the Velocity of Action,” with Air Force Lt. Gen. Robert Skinner, DISA director and commander of the Joint Force Headquarters-Department of Defense Information Network; Roger Greenwell, DISA risk management executive/authorizing official; Jason Martin, director of the DISA Digital Capabilities and Security Center; Llewellyn “Don” Means, director of the DISA Center for Operations; Sharon Woods, director of the DISA Hosting and Compute Center; and Army Maj. Gen. Garrett Yee, assistant to the DISA director https://dcevents.afceachapters.org/AFCEADCDISALuncheon

2 p.m. — Space Force Association “Space Warfighter Talks,” with Lt. Gen. Stephen Whiting, commander, Space Operations Command. https://ussfa.org/events/4632324/

3 p.m. — American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research virtual book discussion on The Strategy of Denial: American Defense in an Age of Great Power Conflict, with author Elbridge Colby, co-founder of the Marathon Initiative; Dan Blumenthal, director of Asian studies at AEI; Oriana Skylar Mastro, nonresident senior fellow at AEI; and Colin Dueck, nonresident senior fellow at AEI. https://www.aei.org/events/taking-on-the-china-challenge

FRIDAY | JANUARY 21

10 a.m. — Middle East Policy Council virtual Capitol Hill Conference: “Rise of China in the Middle East,” with former Rep. Jim Moran, D-Va., senior policy adviser at Nelson Mullins; Asha Castleberry-Hernandez, senior adviser at the Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs; Jon Alterman, senior vice president and director of the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ Middle East Program; former U.S. Ambassador to Saudi Arabia Chas Freeman, MEPC board member and former assistant Defense secretary for international security affairs; former U.S. Ambassador to Oman Richard Schmierer, MEPC chairman of the board and president; and Bassima Alghussein, MEPC executive director https://us02web.zoom.us/meeting/register

MONDAY | JANUARY 24

11:30 a.m. EST/5:30 p.m. CET — NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg holds joining news conference at NATO headquarters with Ministers for Foreign Affairs of Finland, Pekka Haavisto, and Sweden, Ann Linde https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news

WEDNESDAY | JANUARY 26 

10 a.m. — Senate Armed Services committee closed hearing on “U.S. Policy on Afghanistan,” with secret testimony from Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin  CLOSED, no webcast https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings

10 a.m. — American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research web event: “What to look for in Biden’s National Security Strategy,” with Mackenzie Eaglen, senior fellow, AEI; Paul Lettow, former senior director for strategic planning, National Security Council; and Gabriel Scheinmann, executive director, Alexander Hamilton Society https://www.aei.org/events/what-to-look-for-in-bidens-national-security-strategy

QUOTE OF THE DAY

“Those of us who forget the past are condemned to retweet it.”

Secretary of State Antony Blinken, in an interview on the Pod Save the World podcast, with Tommy Vietor and Ben Rhodes.

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