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It is a bit of an oddball week in the first-round leader department as three courses will be played on Thursday. As such there are three different markets available for us to sift through, begging the question, do we divide and conquer or do we put all of our eggs in one basket?
For those who have been reading along, you know the answer will be the latter as there is one course which lacks a bit of star power in Round 1 and has the potential to be taken advantage of. That would be the Stadium Course at PGA West as none of the tournament favorites at PointsBet Sportsbook will be featured on the Pete Dye design.
Effectively avoiding the likes of Jon Rahm and Patrick Cantlay without any added effort, we will instead be tasked with taking down first-round favorites Talor Gooch and Matthew Wolff. There is some trepidation fending off those two names, but we have yet to see Wolff in 2022 and Gooch did not appear to have his A-game in Hawaii.
Not only that, but the Stadium Course is the only course of three which has historical strokes-gained data. Hopefully this will aid us in painting a clearer picture and allow an avenue in for the first-round.
With a bit more trouble lurking – water hazards and deep bunkering – there could be some added volatility compared to the other two courses. While par-5 scoring will be a prerequisite for success, finding fairways and sticking wedge opportunities close will also be on our radar as a round in the low 60s will be needed.
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First-Round Leader Selections:
James Hahn +4000 (0.50 units) at BetRivers:
I fell into the Hahn web quite a bit during the swing season and it appears I have not learned my lesson. One of the most accurate drivers of the golf ball on the PGA Tour, the two-time winner should always be under consideration in the desert.
Possessing a strong history at TPC Summerlin and TPC Scottsdale, the Cal Berkley product has yet to take to PGA West. With a scoring average of 70.50 at the Stadium Course, it is hardly anything to write anything home about, but I cannot help but look at the trajectory of his game.
Continuously scoring better on par-5s and hitting his wedges within close proximity, if able to match his bogey-avoiding abilities with those of the birdie-making variety, a low round should be in store. Despite what his results may suggest, those rounds were present in the fall giving me some hope his upside will shine through in Round 1.
Jason Dufner +4000 (0.50 units) at BetRivers:
I have not gone to the well with Dufner since The Memorial, but this a spot where he should find some form as he was terrific to end the 2020-2021 PGA Tour season. A winner here in 2016, the former PGA Champion has found the most success at The Stadium Course at PGA West despite it playing the most difficult.
Capable from tee-to-green, Dufner’s precise iron-play allows him a way onto the first-round leaderboard despite his poor par-5 scoring metrics. He will need to run the table on those four holes, but his birdie conversion rate was ticking up to end 2021, so it does give me some confidence in his ability to do so.
Having never posted an over-par round on the Stadium Course, Dufner’s five opening efforts on the par-72 read 65-67-69-67-68. Couple this with his affinity for the greens and this has the potential to be a match made in heaven on Thursday.
First-Round Leaders YTD: -1.95 units, -100.00%
Total YTD: +27.79 units, 171.36%
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