Red Sox rookie first baseman Bobby Dalbec showed exactly what he’s capable of during the final two months of the 2021 regular season. He batted .299 with a .378 on-base percentage, .709 slugging percentage, 1.087 OPS, 14 homers, nine doubles, two triples and 38 RBIs in 45 games (151 plate appearances).
Meanwhile, top Red Sox prospect Triston Casas, also a first baseman, was doing similar damage in the minor leagues.
Casas went 42-for-141 (.298) with a .431 on-base percentage, .553 slugging percentage, .984 OPS, nine homers and nine doubles in his final 42 games at Double-A Portland. He then finished up with an .866 OPS, one homer, three doubles and one triple in nine games at Triple-A Worcester.
First baseman/third baseman Blaze Jordan, a top 10 organizational prospect who turned 19 in December, is coming off a strong professional debut season. He posted a .959 OPS with 15 extra-base hits in 28 games combined between the Florida Complex League and Low-A Salem.
Dalbec, Casas or Jordan? Who is Boston’s next longterm first baseman?
There’s no reason they can’t all co-exist on the same 26-man roster and in the same everyday lineup.
Baseball America projected what Boston’s lineup will look like in 2025 and it lists Casas as the first baseman and Dalbec as the DH.
J.D. Martinez is entering the final year of his contract and likely will not return to Boston in 2023. That gives the Red Sox options. Casas could play first base and Dalbec could serve as the DH. Rafael Devers could move to DH and Dalbec could play third base, his best defensive position.
Dalbec has a strong arm and so don’t rule out him playing left field sometime in the future if he remains with the club. He could be used as a trade chip.
Top First Base/Third Base Prospects:
Triston Casas: Baseball America grades Casas’ fielding a 55 (above average). BA wrote, “A former third baseman, Casas has a strong arm, soft hands and solid footwork at first base, where his size makes him an inviting target.”
Casas, who is expected to begin 2022 at Worcester, has the ability to be a complete hitter. He prides himself on being disciplined and staying off balls he can’t handle.
He just turned 22 on Jan. 15. It should be interesting to see how his power and approach continue to develop. The left-handed hitter does need to improve vs. southpaws. He posted a .619 OPS against lefties compared to a .956 OPS against righties at Double A.
Blaze Jordan: Baseball America grades the right-handed hitter’s power a 70 on the 20-80 scale and wrote, “Defensively, Jordan is a third baseman now but is likely to move to first base with his strong, physical frame at a young age.”
MLB Pipeline grades Jordan’s power a 60 and wrote, “He has soft hands and average arm strength but his below-average speed and range have most scouts believing he’s destined for first base. Regardless of his position, most of his value will come from his offensive game, which has drawn him comparisons to Matt Holliday and Mark Trumbo.”
Niko Kavadas: The Red Sox drafted the 23-year-old left-handed hitter in the 11th round in 2021 out of Notre Dame. He went 11-for-43 (.256) with a .448 on-base percentage, .488 slugging percentage, .936 OPS, two homers and four doubles in 15 games in the Florida Complex League and Low-A Salem. He posted a 1.007 OPS in seven games at Salem. He had more walks (15) than strikeouts (13) albeit a small very sample size.
Kavadas sounds like more of a DH than a first baseman. MLB Pipeline, which ranks him No. 28 in the Red Sox system, wrote, “He has bottom-of-the-scale speed along with below-average range and arm strength. He’ll have to ride his bat to the big leagues and may be able to do so.”
Alex Binelas: Boston acquired the 21-year-old slugger from the Brewers with Jackie Bradley Jr. and David Hamilton last month. He slugged .636 with nine homers and 11 doubles in 29 games (132 plate appearances) at Low-A Carolina in 2021 after Milwaukee drafted him in the third round out of Louisville.
But is he a corner infielder or a future outfielder?
MLB Pipeline wrote, “It remains to be seen whether Binelas can stay in the infield. Scouts don’t like his hands, footwork or funky throwing motion at third base, and he looked rough at first when Louisville moved him there in the spring. Though his speed plays as fringy in games, he recorded plus 60-yard dash times on scout day in the fall, so his best option may be left or right field.”
Brandon Howlett: The third baseman, who turned 22 in September, had a solid age 21 season at High-A Greenville. He batted .253 with a .345 on-base percentage, .469 slugging percentage, .815 OPS, 17 homers, 19 doubles, four triples, 62 runs and 57 RBIs in 96 games (414 plate appearances). He needs to cut down on his strikeout rate. He had a 32.9% strikeout percentage compared to a 10.6% walk rate. He dropped to the 21st round in the 2018 Draft because of a strong commitment to Florida State, but the Red Sox were able to sign him to a $185,000 signing bonus, $65,000 over slot value.
Joe Davis: The 25-year-old slashed .297/.345/.509/.854 with 19 homers, 23 doubles and 78 RBIs in 412 plate appearances combined between 48 games at Low-A Salem and 47 games at High-A Greenville. The 6-foot, 230-pounder was a 19th-rounder in 2019 out of Houston where he set the program record for home runs. He also has showed an ability to put the ball in play and hit for a high average.
Nick Northcut: The 22-year-old, an 11th round pick in 2018, posted a .261/.352/.513/.865 line with 17 homers, 32 doubles, two triples and 77 RBIs in 96 games (402 plate appearances) for Salem in 2021. He started 45 games at third base, 37 games at first base and 12 games at DH. He had a 22.6% strikeout percentage and 11.4% walk percentage.
Stephen Scott: The versatile 24-year-old made 18 starts at catcher this past season. He also started 39 games at first base, 17 games in right field, eight games in left field and 14 games at DH.
He slashed .291/.400/.514/.915 with 16 homers, 29 doubles and one triple in 100 games between Low-A Salem and High-A Greenville. He posted a .338/.430/.606/1.036 line with eight homers, 12 doubles and one triple in 39 games at Greenville.
Tyreque Reed: The 24-year-old slashed .296/.405/.587/.991 with 14 homers, eight doubles and one triple in 48 games at Greenville, then .239/.335/.370/.705 with three homers and nine doubles in 44 games for Portland.
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