2022 Fantasy Baseball: Toronto Blue Jays Team Outlook
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From 2019 to 2021, the Blue Jays improved by 24 wins. They scored 120 more runs (846 – 3rd), and their pitchers allowed 145 fewer runs (10th in ERA – 3.91). However, their growth still led to them missing the postseason by one game. Toronto only made the postseason three times over the previous 27 seasons. They led the majors in home runs (262) and finished 12th in steals (81). The Blue Jays were league average in bullpen ERA (4.08 – 16th), with 30 wins, 31 losses, and 34 saves. Their two World Series titles came in 1992 and 1993.
Toronto lost two star players (2B Marcus Semien and SP Robbie Ray) to free agency. SP Steven Matz signed with the Cardinals, and the Braves took a flier on RP Kirby Yates. They revamped their starting rotation by adding SP Kevin Gausman while re-signing SP Jose Berrios to a seven-year contract ($131 million). The only other meaningful player added was RP Yimi Garcia.
The Blue Jays have an excellent young foundation to their offense, highlighted by a ton of power. Toronto needs 2B Cavan Biggio to play well to help cover the loss of 2B Marcus Semien. C Alejandro Kirk should seize the starting catching job.
Their starting rotation looks to be four deep with upside arms. However, Toronto needs at least two pitchers to post ace seasons to make a run at the World Series. SP Kevin Gausman showed that ability in San Francisco, but a trip back to the AL East invites some regression in his stats. SP Alek Manoah has the tools to be a front-line starter.
Toronto has some competitive arms in their bullpen, but I don’t see a true stopper. The Blue Jays must close the gap on the Yankees and Rays late in games.
John W. McDonough/Sports Illustrated
Starting Lineup
OF George Springer
Springer missed almost all of the first 12 weeks with a quad injury in his first season with the Blue Jays. Over the next 38 games, he hit .282 with 33 runs, 13 home runs, and 28 RBI over 142 at-bats. Then, a left knee strain led to another two weeks on the injured list. Springer finished the year with a .256 batting average with 19 runs, six home runs, 15 RBI over 117 at-bats.
He continues to have a top-of-the-order walk rate (10.8) while showing some regression in his strikeout rate (23.1). Springer posted an elite average hit rate (2.101) over the past three years. His swing path (46.6) was an all-time high but well above his career average (35.4).
Fantasy Owner
In 2022, Springer should be an integral part of the Blue Jays high-scoring offense. He projects to be a significant asset in runs and home runs. His swing path and high launch angle (19.0 – 34th) point to 40+ home runs with help in RBIs. Springer has an ADP of 57 in the early draft season.
SS Bo Bichette
In his first season in the majors, Bichette produced impact stats across the board, leading to the second-highest ranking for hitters by SIscore (9.59). In addition, his RBI rate (19) finished in an elite area, suggesting his future lies as a number three-hitter in the Blue Jays batting order. He led the American League in hits (191).
Over his four seasons in the minors, Bichette hit .321 with 242 runs, 37 home runs, 217 RBI, and 73 stolen bases over 1,302 at-bats. His walk rate (8.3) was about the league average, with a favorable strikeout rate (17.3).
Despite a jump on home runs (29) with Toronto, Bichette posted a weaker average hit rate (1.623). His strikeout rate (19.9) showed growth, but he took fewer walks (5.8 percent). In the majors, he maintained a high contact batting average (.385).
Bichette had strength vs. lefties (.340/8/22 over 150 at-bats). Other than August (.250 with two home runs and 10 RBI over 108 at-bats), his bat was electric over the final four months (.316/78/18/70/18 over 427 at-bats). He had a regression in his swing path (49.1 percent ground ball rate), but his HR/FB rate (18.8) continued to be an asset. Bichette finished 51st in hard-hit rate (47.5) but 275th in launch angle (7.3).
Fantasy Outlook
Bichette ranks fifth in ADP in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship this draft season. He has the tools to be a five-tool star, but Bichette needs to add more loft to his swing to support his recent uptick in power. I sense a slight step back from his production in 2021 while continuing to be a first-round fantasy selection.
1B Vlad Guerrero Jr.
Guerrero arrived in a big way in his third season with the Blue Jays. He more than doubled his previous high in home runs (20 in 2018 in the minors) while seeing a spike in his average hit rate (1.931). In addition, his flyball rate (36.5) and HR/FB rate (26.5) were the best of his career, but the talk of a significant jump in launch angle (9.4 – 244th) was unsupported. Guerrero’s rise in power was more tied to his hard-hit rate (55.2 – 6th).
His bat shined over the first half of the season (.332/68/28/73 over 316 at-bats) while gaining momentum in September (.306 with nine home runs and 15 RBI over 121 at-bats). Guerrero had the most production against right-handed pitching (.317/37/92 over 458 at-bats).
The one area that Guerrero regressed in was his RBI rate (15). However, his RBI chances (408) should improve with a healthy George Springer and Bo Bichette hitting in front of him in the batting order. He finished with a career-high walk rate (12.3) while being tough to strike out (15.8 percent).
Fantasy Outlook
The big Vladdy has arrived, and he looked poised to hit over .300 with over 100 runs and 100 RBI in many seasons over the next decade. Guerrero had the third-highest SIscore (9.30) for hitters. He ranks sixed by ADP (5.7) in the early draft season in the NFBC. Stud of studs, so it comes down to team structure and game plan.
OF Teoscar Hernandez
Over his first two seasons with Toronto, Hernandez hit .235 with 125 runs, 48 home runs, 122 RBI, and 11 steals over 893 at-bats. He struck out 32 percent of the time with a walk rate (8.7), just above the league average.
The following two years, he had a spike in his contact batting average (.433 and .405), leading to an impressive season (.295 with 125 runs, 48 home runs, 150 RBI, and 18 stolen bases over 740 at-bats). In 2021, Hernandez had the lowest strikeout rate (24.9) of his career while having a lower walk rate (6.1).
His bat shined vs. left-handed pitching (.372/12/38 over 129 at-bats). He had almost the same batting average before (.297) and after (.296) the All-Star break. Over the last two months, Hernandez ended the year on a high note (.303 with 47 runs, 16 home runs, 53 RBI, and five steals over 228 at-bats).
Fantasy Outlook
Hernandez was the third Blue Jay bat in the top 10 by SIscore (6.59 – 9th) for hitters. His success pushed his draft value (ADP – 34) to the third round in the early draft season in the NFBC. I have to respect his growth at the plate and Toronto’s supporting cast in the batting order. However, he did overachieve in RBI rate (22), and his career resume says his batting average isn’t for real. Therefore, I’m going to fade him based on the high probability that he won’t repeat.
OF Lourdes Gurriel
When reviewing Gurriel’s profile for 2022, I’m left with the feeling we have yet to see his ceiling. Last year he had 500 at-bats for the first time, leading to career-highs in all categories except batting average. His RBI (21) continues to rise, but Gurriel only had 320 RBI chances. He finished with a four-year low in contact batting average (.347).
Gurriel carried fantasy teams in September (.301/19/7/30 over 93 at-bats). He posted his lowest strikeout rate (18.9) in his time in the majors, with a below-par walk rate (5.9).
Over his four seasons with the Blue Jays, he hit .282 with 172 runs, 63 home runs, 202 RBI, and 11 steals over 1,271 at-bats.
Fantasy Outlook
His ADP (144) is in an area where fantasy managers are willing to bet on the come. Gurriel has a chance at 30 home runs and the skill set to hit over .300. His runs will come from batting in a higher slot in the batting order. With a push to 550 at-bats and the fifth slot in the Blue Jays’ lineup, over 100 RBIs are within reach.
2B Cavan Biggio
Biggio was the only core Blue Jay batter to be a fantasy bust in 2021. He had a decline in his average hit rate (1.589) and contact batting average (.326). His walk rate (12.6) faded slightly while remaining elite. Biggio continues to have a below-par strikeout rate (26.5).
He missed almost three weeks in late May and early June due to a neck injury. Later in the season, elbow and back issues cost him another two months.
Biggio ranked 15th in launch angle (20.1), but his HR/FB rate (10.0) faded for the second straight season. In addition, he struggled against lefties (.200 with no home runs and five RBI over 60 at-bats).
Over four seasons in the minors, he hit .255 with 43 home runs, 212 RBI, and 47 steals over 1,288 at-bats.
Fantasy Outlook
In 2019 over 354 at-bats with Toronto, Biggio ranked 138th in SIscore (-3.04) for hitters. He comes off the board this draft season as the 170th hitter with an ADP of 277. His balance skill set is priced favorably while only offering risk in batting average. With 500 at-bats, Biggio has a chance at a 20/20 with more upside if he hits his stride.
OF Randall Grichuk
After underachieving for most of his first five seasons in the majors, Grichuk showed growth over the past three years (.242 with 172 runs, 65 home runs, and 196 RBI over 1,313 at-bats.
His strikeout rate (20.9 – 26.5 in his career) was the lowest of his career while having weakness in his walk rate (5.6). He finished with failure in his contact batting average (.310) but his best RBI rate (17) in his time in the majors.
Grichuk didn’t have an edge in batting average against righties (.239) or lefties (.246). His season started well before the All-Star break (.259/38/16/57 over 328 at-bats), but he drove the bus home with an empty second half (.208/21/6/24 over 183 at-bats).
Fantasy Outlook
Grichuk is a low-average power hitter with a minimal chance of moving up in the batting order. However, the Blue Jays will give him plenty of at-bats if he doesn't strike his way out of the lineup. As a result, he has a bench ADP (365) in most formats in 2022. Possible 20/80 player with over 500 at-bats while some rebound in his batting average.
C Alejandro Kirk
Over four seasons in the minor league career, Kirk hit .317 over 567 at-bats with 79 runs, 19 home runs, 114 RBI, and five steals. He had more walks (94) than strikeouts (69). His one negative comes from his enormous body (265 lbs.) for his height (5’8”). His ability to hit will get him in the Blue Jays’ lineup quickly, but he needs to work hard to get in better shape to help his long-term value and success in the majors.
Last year a hip injury cost him almost three months. Nevertheless, he finished with an excellent approach (strikeout rate – 11.6 and walk rate – 10.1). Over his limited at-bats (189) with Toronto over the past two seasons, Kirk hit .259 with 23 runs, nine home runs, and 27 RBI.
Fantasy Outlook
Kirk should be an attractive C2, but they won’t happen in the high-stakes market based on his ADP (238 – 13th catcher drafted). With 400 at-bats, I could see 45 runs, 15 home runs, and 50 RBI with a higher ceiling with more playing time.
3B Jordan Groshans
The third base position for the Blue Jays looks to be in transition in mid-January for the Blue Jays. There is an excellent chance they sign a veteran option after the lockout or move Cavan Biggio to third base and land a player to play at second base.
Toronto added Groshans with the 12th selection of the 2018 MLB June Amateur Draft out of high school. Over three seasons, he hit .300 over 547 at-bats with 79 runs, 14 home runs, and 96 RBI. Unfortunately, he missed some development time in 2019 with a foot issue.
Fantasy Outlook
With 278 at-bats under his belt at AA (.291/46/7/40), the Blue Jays should start him out at AAA in 2022. Groshans has strength in his approach (strikeout rate – 19.2 and walk rate – 10.0), but his power has yet to emerge despite adding more bulk to his frame since arriving at pro ball. He looks a year away from the majors, but Groshans could come quickly if he starts producing more power.
Bench Options
C Danny Jansen
Batting average has been an issue for Jansen over the past three seasons. His contact batting average has been under .300 each year over this span, but he does have a rising average hit rate (2.122) due to a spike in his flyball rate (45.0) and the 80th ranked launch angle (16.3).
In his career with Toronto, Jansen beat the league average with his strikeout rate (20.4) and walk rate (9.4). He hit .207 with 91 runs, 30 home runs, and 91 RBI over his previous 651 at-bats.
Jansen hit .269 over 1,282 career at-bats in the minors with 33 home runs, 196 RBI, and 17 steals.
Fantasy Outlook
Jansen could improve dramatically based on his approach, size, and power potential, but he doesn’t make enough hard contact. Jansen projects in the weaker half of a platoon role behind the plate. He has a C2 ADP (328) in the early draft season. His defense does hold an edge over Alejandro Kirk.
Top Prospects
C Gabriel Moreno
Moreno looks to be the future starting catcher for the Blue Jays. He signed with Toronto in 2017 at 17 out of Venezuela. In 2021, Morero dominated at AA (.373 with 29 runs, eight home runs, and 45 RBI over 126 at-bats), leading to a call-up to AAA. Unfortunately, a broken thumb (hit by a pitch) led to almost 11 weeks on the injured list in late June.
He has an aggressive feel at the plate, but Moreno is challenging to strike out (12.4 percent). His defense isn’t quite there yet, but he has the foundation skill set to be a good major league defensive catcher.
Fantasy Outlook
Moreno will start the year at AAA while potentially getting to Toronto by June. In the high-stakes fantasy market, his ADP (444) priced him as one of the top catching prospects in 2022. His game could make a significant step forward this year with a little more strength and bulk. I sense sneaky underlying speed with the bat to hit for average and power.
3B Orelvis Martinez
Martinez is another third base prospect for Toronto who offers high upside. The Blue Jays signed him to a $3.5 million contract in 2018 at age 16.
He delivered an impressive season in power (28/87) between A and High A in 2021, but his batting average (.261) didn’t come along for the ride. Martinez will take walks (9.3), and his strikeout rate (23.2) isn’t far out of line.
Fantasy Outlook
Toronto will start him out at AAA. His elite average hit rate (2.107) gives him 40 home run upside early in his career. He is a stud in the making, and the Blue Jays’ offense has a bright future over the next decade.
Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports
Starting Pitching
SP Jose Berrios
It will be interesting to see the final stats for Berrios and Kevin Gausman in 2022. Both pitchers are coming off their best seasons while always having competitive strikeout and walk rates. The difference in their final stats in 2021 is closer than it looks when considering where they pitched.
Berrios regained his command (2.1 walk rate – 3.7 in 2020), leading to only a slight bump in his strikeout rate (9.6). Batters hit .223 against him while being just off his best season in 2018 (.222 BAA). He finished with risk vs. lefties (.254 with 15 home runs over 346 at-bats). Berrios had an ERA under 3.75 every month last year.
His average fastball (94.1) was a tick higher than his first four years with the Twins. Batters struggled to hit his curveball (.203 BAA), changeup (.152 BAA), and sinker (.229 BAA). Berrios had almost the same usage of his two fastballs (four-seam – 27.7 percent and sinker – 28.5 percent).
Fantasy Outlook
I would rather roster Berrios based on his ADP (73) than Kevin Gausman. He has a winning record (60-47) in his career, and I expect him to pitch well from the lead, which should happen a lot in Toronto. On a path to 15+ wins with a sub 3.50 ERA and 225 strikeouts. The key to his improvement is solving left-handed batters. He finished 19th in SIscore (2.73) for pitchers last season.
SP Kevin Gausman
In his first full season in San Francisco, Gausman turned into a legit front-line starter for the first time in his nine-year career. He finished ninth in SIscore (5.96) for pitchers.
His walk rate (2.3) was slightly better than his career average (2.6). Gausman posted a 10.7 strikeout rate over the past three seasons in the National League, compared to 8.2 with the Orioles. He allowed 20 home runs over 192 innings (0.9 per nine), his best rate since 2014 (0.6 – 1.2 in his career). Batters hit .210 against him (.265 over his first eight seasons).
Gausman shifted his fastball usage since arriving in San Fran. His average fastball (94.7) came just below his career path. He threw his four-seamer (.246 BAA) 52.7 percent of the time, leading to a jump in his split-finger fastball usage (38.4 percent – .147 BAA). His slider (.250 BAA) has turned more into a show-me pitch.
He had almost the same success against right-handed (.206) and left-handed batters (214). Surprisingly, Gausman was a much better pitcher on the road (8-2 with a 2.33 ERA and 127 strikeouts over 108.1 innings). After an excellent first half (9-3 with 1.73 ERA and 133 strikeouts over 114.2 innings), Gausman was easier to hit (.276 BAA) after the All-Star break, leading to a 4.42 ERA and 12 home runs allowed over 77.1 innings.
Fantasy Outlook
A move back to the AL East invites regression in Gausman’s arm. His split-finger fastball has been challenging to hit for his whole career, but his four-seam fastball has not (.308 over his final 15 starts – .289 from 2015 to 2020). His ADP (60) ranks him as the 18th starter drafted in the NFBC in mid-January. I know Robbie Ray had success for the Blue Jays last year, but I don’t trust Gausman in 2022. With any dip in confidence, he’ll allow more home runs with a step back in strikeouts. In addition, Gausman has never pitched over 200 innings in his career. So my bar will be 12 to 15 wins with an ERA closer to 3.75 with 175 strikeouts.
SP Hyun Jin Ryu
Over his first 21 starts, Ryu helped fantasy teams by going 11-5 with a 3.22 ERA, 1.130 WHIP, .243 BAA, and 102 strikeouts over 123 innings. Unfortunately, four disaster showings (26 runs and 34 baserunners over 11.2 innings) over his final 10 starts led to him crushing his stats in ERA (4.37) and WHIP (1.225).
He maintained his walk rate (2.0) but had a regression in his strikeout rate (7.6). Ryu allowed 22 of his 24 home runs to righties. His arm brought downside when pitching at home (4.91 ERA and 1.330 WHIP over 88 innings with 70 strikeouts). He finished with a lower ground ball rate (46.8) than his previous two years (50.4 and 51.1).
His average fastball (89.8) was a career-low. Ryu relies on a changeup (.257 BAA) and cutter (.251 BAA) as his top secondary pitches while also featuring a curveball (.239 BAA). Previously, his three top pitches had more value.
Fantasy Outlook
This draft season Ryu slipped by almost 10 rounds in 12-team leagues based on his ADP (196) in the early draft season in the NFBC. He now has a 3.89 ERA over 43 starts for the Blue Jays compared to a 2.98 ERA for the Dodgers (126 games). I expect him to keep Toronto in games while posting an ERA closer to 3.75 and about 150 strikeouts.
SP Alek Manoah
After a year off from baseball in 2020 due to the Covid-19 shutdown, Manoah needed only three starts at AAA (one run over 18 innings with 27 strikeouts) to kick in the door to the majors. He finished his brief minor league career with a 3-1 record over 35 innings with a 1.54 ERA and 54 strikeouts.
He allowed three runs or fewer in 16 of his 20 starts in Toronto while pitching into the seventh inning in six games. Manoah finished with four disaster starts (21 runs, 27 baserunners, and nine home runs over 14.2 innings). Over his other 16 matchups, he posted a 1.76 ERA and 1.030 WHIP over 97 innings. His walk rate (3.2) still needs work. Manoah led the American League in hit batters (16).
His average fastball (93.5) was about the league average. Batters struggled to hit his four-seamer (.200 BAA), sinker (.216 BAA), slider (.146 BAA), and changeup (.243 BAA).
Manoah dominated right-handed batters (.156 with a .251 slugging percentage). He went 5-0 at home with a 2.32 ERA and 56 strikeouts over 54.1 innings.
Fantasy Outlook
His ADP (87) in mid-January in the NFBC gives him backend SP2 status in 15-team leagues. Manoah is on the doorstep of being a front-line ace once he works up his arm strength. With 129.2 innings under his belt in 2021, his next step should be 180 innings. I fully expect 15+ wins with a sub 3.00 ERA and 200 strikeouts in his sophomore campaign. Manoah is the type of arm I will fight for in 2022.
SP Nate Pearson
In spring training, the talk of a triple-digit fastball and a potential major league job pushed Pearson quickly up draft boards in 2020. However, after shining in his major league debut (no runs over five innings with five strikeouts), his arm looked overrated over his subsequent three appearances (12 runs and 21 baserunners over 11.1 innings).
The Blue Jays placed him on the injured list in mid-August with a right elbow injury. Pearson ended the year with one more appearance (no runs over 1.2 innings with two strikeouts).
In 2021, a groin injury ultimately cost him most of the season. Pearson had sports hernia surgery in early November to hopefully correct the issue. Between AAA and the majors, he made 24 appearances with a 4.34 ERA and 64 strikeouts over 45.2 innings. His command (25 walks) was a significant issue.
His AFB came in at 97.7 MPH while featuring a slider as his second-best pitch (.263 BAA). Pearson barely threw a curveball and changeup in 2021.
Toronto selected him with the 28th pick in the first round of the June MLB Amateur Draft in 2017. Over four seasons in the minors, he went 6-8 with a 2.63 ERA and 190 strikeouts over 154 innings.
Fantasy Outlook
I’m fearful of his right elbow injury, but I can’t dismiss his success in 2019 in the minors (2.30 ERA over 101.2 innings with 119 strikeouts). His ADP (417) puts him in an area with no real downside. If Pearson throws the ball well in March, his value will soar again. Coin toss between the next big thing and TJ surgery. Toronto may decide his future lies in the ninth inning, where his arsenal would be electric.
SP Ross Stripling
Over five seasons in the minors, Stripling went 13-14 with a 2.86 ERA and 237 strikeouts over 258.1 innings. Unfortunately, his development was cut short by TJ surgery in 2014.
Over five seasons, the Dodgers have used him as a swingman, leading to a 23-25 record with a 3.68 ERA and 404 strikeouts over 420.2 innings.
An August trade to the Blue Jays led to a 5-9 record over 117.0 innings with a 5.00 ERA and 107 strikeouts. Over the past two seasons, home runs allowed (36 over 150.2 innings) have been a significant issue. However, hidden in 2021 was an eight-game stretch where Stripling posted a 2.35 ERA, 0.913 WHIP, and 44 strikeouts over 46 innings.
His AFB (91.8) is below the league average while relying on a plus changeup (.113 BAA). In addition, Stripling lost the feel of his slider (.299) and curveball (.298). Right-handed batters hit .270 with 16 home runs over 248 at-bats.
Fantasy Outlook
Other than an oblique issue in August, there were no additional hints of an injury. Stripling will compete for a starting job in spring training. He throws strikes with one plus pitch, but there are too many disaster innings in his game. A trade back to the NL may add a pulse. For now, only an in-season gamble if Stripling is getting batters out at a higher rate. His ADP (549) puts him in the free-agent pool in all redraft leagues.
RP Trevor Richards
Over five seasons in the minors, Richards went 18-16 with 2.35 ERA and 268 strikeouts over 252.1 innings. He handled himself well over minimal innings (52.0) at AAA (1.73 ERA and 57 strikeouts).
Miami gave him two seasons to prove his worth in the majors, but his lack of command (4.0 walks per nine) led to a 7-21 record with a 4.46 ERA and 233 strikeouts over 238.1 innings. After washing out again in Tampa (4.28 ERA) in a semi-starting role, Richards found his way after a pair of trades in 2021. He went 7-2 over his final 52.1 innings with a 3.27 ERA, 0.9554 WHIP, .169 BAA, and 62 strikeouts.
His average fastball (92.7) added two MPH in relief. Batters struggled to hit all four of his pitches (four-seam fastball – .158 BAA, changeup – .194 BAA, slider – .222 BAA, and curveball – .167 BAA). Richards lowered his walk rate to 3.1 batters per nine.
Fantasy Outlook
He comes into 2022 with a bullpen role, but his starting experience and recent growth could make him a fill-in starter. Unfortunately, his ADP (732) leaves him behind door number two in the fantasy game of the Price is Right—only a player to follow to see if his success is repeatable.
Brad Penner/USA TODAY Sports
Bullpen
RP Jordan Romano
A spring training setback to Kirby Yates appeared to create a closing job for Romano after flashing late-inning talent at the end of 2020 (1.23 ERA and 21 strikeouts over 21 innings). He landed on the injured list by mid-April with a minor right elbow issue.
Toronto lost replacement closer in early May, Julian Merryweather, giving Romano a shot at the ninth inning. Over his first 30 games, he went 4-1 with a 1.21 ERA and 38 strikeouts over 29.2 innings while converting six of his seven saves. However, Romano tripped over his next nine games (eight runs, 15 baserunners, and five home runs over 8.2 innings). He regained his form over his final 24.2 innings (3-0 with a 1.09 ERA, 37 strikeouts, and 14 saves over 24.2 innings).
His average fastball (97.5) ranked elite in velocity. Romano featured two dominating pitches (four-seamer – 1.38 BAA and slider – .231 BAA).
Fantasy Outlook
His success pushes his ADP to 107 in the early draft season in the NFBC. Romano has the tools to close and dominate, but I’m concerned with his elbow issue, and I’d like to see improved command (3.6 walks per nine). Player of interest at the right price, but Romano would become undrafted with any negative injury news in spring training.
RP Yimi Garcia
Garcia’s arm flashed in 2015 with the Dodgers (3.34 ERA and 68 strikeouts over 56.2 innings), but Garcia missed almost all of 2017 and 2018 with TJ surgery.
Over the last three seasons, he posted a 3.53 ERA and 145 strikeouts over 135 innings. His walk rate (2.5) remains an asset, but Garcia allowed too many home runs (1.5 per nine in his career).
His AFB (96.0) was a career-best. Batters struggled to hit his four-seam fastball (.208 BAA), slider (.247 BAA), curveball (.206 BAA), and changeup (.083 BAA).
In 2021, over his first 33 games, Garcia converted 13 of 16 save chances with a 2.61 ERA and 32 strikeouts over 31 innings. Unfortunately, his arm lost value over his final 26.2 innings (6.08 ERA).
Fantasy Outlook
Despite closing games last year, Garcia doesn’t look capable of holding the job all year if given an opportunity. His overall arsenal projects better, but home runs tend to ruin too many games.
RP Julian Merryweather
Merryweather was the ultimate fantasy tease in 2021. The Blue Jays awarded him with their closing job on opening day. After dominating over his first two outings (no runs or hits over two innings with five strikeouts and two saves), fantasy managers in the high-stakes market invested a ton of free-agent dollars in his arm. Two games later, an oblique injury cost him the next five months. Over his final nine appearances, Merryweather posted a 7.27 ERA over 8.2 innings due to four home runs.
His arm flashed at two levels in 2016, leading to a 13-6 record with a 2.60 ERA and 119 strikeouts over 135 innings. Unfortunately, he blew out his right elbow before the 2018 season. Over his next three seasons, Merryweather only pitched 11 innings in the minors (7.36 ERA and 1.73 WHIP).
Last year, his average fastball (97.3) looked special while working off a slider, changeup, and curveball for his secondary pitches.
Fantasy Outlook
Merryweather is a complete wild card. Unfortunately, injuries have been a problem over multiple seasons, and he lacks a winning resume at any level to support any investment in his arm. On the positive side, his fastball has a chance to be elite.
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