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The Premier League’s (PL) decision to postpone the North London Derby (NLD) led to two of my four bets being pushed at the weekend. When news broke of Arsenal’s request, Tottenham’s Moneyline dropped from +135 to +112, and Harry Kane To Score Anytime dropped from +135 to +120. We were in a really strong position with these bets, and it’s a shame the match didn’t go ahead.
I’m still feeling good about my Tottenham Top 4 Futures Bet. Their odds have dropped from +200 to +180 in response to Manchester United’s 2-2 draw with Aston Villa. +180 is still a great price, and I recommended jumping on it if you haven’t already. Three points against Leicester City will see their odds drop even further.
I only had one other bet in play, and that was Newcastle’s Moneyline +105. We were minutes away from cashing and collecting three massive points when João Pedro rose like a salmon to head in Kiko Femenía’s cross. This one hurt, and we have now dropped 21 points from winning positions this season, the highest in the league.
Looking at the midweek action, I have one play for Wednesday evening’s standout fixture. All odds are taken from Pointsbet and reflective at the time of writing.
Leicester City vs. Tottenham (Wednesday, 2:30 PM EST, Live on USA)
It’s crazy that this is Leicester City’s first PL match in 23 days. They have been one of the clubs hit hardest with Covid-19 and injuries, resulting in five of their fixtures being postponed over the past month. After this match, they will still be three fixtures off the pace and have UEFA Europa Conference League and FA Cup commitments. Deep runs in those competitions will result in a hectic end to the season for The Foxes.
In team news, Kelechi Iheanacho, Wilfred Ndidi, Daniel Amartey, and Nampalys Mendy are representing their countries at the Africa Cup of Nations. Wesley Fofana has reportedly suffered a setback in his recovery from the broken ankle he suffered in preseason. Ryan Bertrand (Knee), Jonny Evans (Thigh), Jamie Vardy (Hamstring), and Ricardo Pereira (Broken Leg) are all ruled out. If Boubakary Soumaré (Illness) and Timothy Castagne (Muscular) are passed fit, we will see them feature from the bench.
Leicester City Likely XI (4-2-3-1)
Schmeichel (C) - Thomas, Söyüncü, Vestergaard, Albrighton - Dewsbury-Hall, Tielemans - Barnes, Maddison, Lookman - Daka
Brendan Rodgers can field a decent side despite all of Leicester’s injuries and absences. Lookman, Barnes, and Daka’s pace can cause Tottenham problems on the counter and out wide if they can get behind the wing-backs.
Tottenham have had four matches postponed - one was for bad weather - and will also be three fixtures behind the pace after this match. The club released a strongly worded statement questioning the PL’s decision to postpone Sunday’s NLD and calling for “clarity and consistency on the application of the rule.”
In team news, Spurs are fairing much better on the injury front. Sergio Reguilón was touch and go for the NLD and is expected to start this game. Steven Bergwijn has also returned from injury, but it’s difficult to see him featuring with the club keen to move him on. Christian Romero (Hamstring), Eric Dier (Muscular), and Heung-Min Son are expected to miss out.
Tottenham Likely XI (3-5-2)
Lloris (C) - Davies, Sánchez, Tanganga - Reguilón, Skipp, Winks, Højbjerg, Emerson - Moura, Kane
Antonio Conte‘s response to Son’s injury was to switch to a 3-5-2 against Chelsea in their Carabao Cup 2nd leg semi-final. I think he will continue with this formation and task his central midfield trio to pay close attention to James Maddison. The Leicester attacking midfielder has been in superb form scoring seven goals and providing five assists in his last ten appearances.
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I think this is a really difficult game to call, and I recommend avoiding the Moneyline or outcome. Leicester haven’t played a PL match since their miraculous 1-0 victory over Liverpool on December 28th, and it’s difficult to gauge whether the time off has had a positive or negative effect on the players.
I know they recorded a 4-1 victory over Watford in the FA Cup on January 8th, but that wasn’t a game Claudio Ranieri took seriously, choosing to rest key players.
Tottenham are in a good moment and remain undefeated in the PL under Conte, winning five and drawing three. One of the issues he needs to address is goalscoring, with Spurs only managing two or more goals in seven of their 18 PL fixtures this season.
Defensively Leicester have been poor this season, allowing their opponents to score two or more goals in 11 of their 18 fixtures. This will be Söyüncü's first game in almost a month, and the last time he partnered Vestergaard in a back four was October 3rd in a 2-2 draw with Crystal Palace.
There’s a good chance these two will be rusty, and we could see them struggle against an in-form Harry Kane, who has made 23 attempts on goal, scoring three times in his last five fixtures per SofaScore.com.
Back Spurs to score two or more goals.
Betting Tip: Tottenham Total Team Goals Over 1.5 +108
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