Omicron variant has likely hit its peak in Florida, experts say

GUARD DOWN STEVE. GIANNA WILL INFECTIOUS DISEASE SPECIALIST, DR. LARRY BUSH SAYS THAT HE EXPECTS THE OMICRON VARIANT TO BE MANAGEABLE VERY ONSO. BU IFT MORE PEOPLE DON’T GET VACCINATED AND BOOSTED IT WOULD ALLOW THE CORONAVIRUS TO KEEP MUTATING EVENTUALLY POSSIBLY CA USING MORE VARIANCE. GET STARTING TO GOOW DN THE OTRHE SIDE OF THE MOUNTAIN AND IT WILL CONTINUE TO DO THAT AS WE GO. THAT’S NOT THE MEAN THAT WE HAVE TO YOU KNOW, GIVE UP AS FAR AS DO ING EVERYTHING WE’RE DOING OR NOT. GO GET YOUR BOOSTER. IT MEANS YOU SHOULD DR. BUSH SAYS THE LOWEST VACCINATION RATE IS AMONG CHILDREN AGES 5 TO1, 1 WHICH NEEDS TO CHANGE. THEY ARE BREEDING GROUND FOR RYVEOR F MORE VARIANTS AND THEY CAN SPREAD IT TO YOU KNOW, ELDERLY. BUT THEY’VE ONLY HAD 18 19% HE SAYS THE OMICRON VARIANT PROBABLY PEAKED SOMETEIM OVER THE LAST WEEK AND THE CASES SHOULD KEEP GOING DOWN. HE SAYS THE UPCOMING AVAILABILITY OF MORE AT-HOME TESTS COURTESY OF THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT THE INCREASED DISTRIBUTION OF MONOCLONAL ANTIBODY TREATMENTS ANDHE T EXPECTED AVAILABILITY OF ORAL MEDICATIONS IN THE NEAR FUTURE COULD KEEP THE CASES DOWN AS WHAT WOULD MAKE IT GO BACK UP IS IF ?CAN CLEARLY REINFECT EVERYBODY MUCH MORE EASILY AERFT BEING VACCINATED OR NATURAL INFECTION, THEN WE’RE AWARE OF NOW ORHE T POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER VARIANT WHEN WE’VE HEARD OF A VARIANT THAT’S PEAKING ITS HEAD UP IN FRANCE. THERE’S NOT MUCH REPORTED ABOUT IT Y,ETUT B APPARENTLY IT HAS MORE MUTATIONS AND OMICRON. HE SAYS WHILE IT’S STILLOO T EARLY TO TELL IF THIS NEW VARIANT I H U WILL CAUSE ISSSUE IN THE US PEOPLE CAN PREPARE FOR THE POSSIBILITY BY PURCHASING AT HOME TESTSOW N HAVE IT READY BECAUSE IF WE DO SOON HAVE THE ORAL MEDICATIONS AVAILABLE. THEY HAVE TO BE TAKEN CERTAINLY WITHIN THE FIRST FIVE DAYS, BUT THE SOONER THE BETTER. AND TO DO THAT YOU WOU HLDAVE TO STTE POSITIVE. SO IF YOU HAD SYMPTOMS AND YOU HAD TO WAIT TO GET AN AT HOME TESTHE T DAYS ARE GOING TO PASS BEFORE THE EFFECTIVENESS OF THAT MEDICATIONAN C BE FULLY, YOU KNOW APPRECIATED. NOW DR. BUSH ALSO SAYS TTHA HE EXPECTS COVID-19 TO REQUIRE A YEARLY BOOSTER AT SOME PNTOI SORT OF LIKE THE FLU REQUIRES A YEARLY VACCINE. DIVERSITY OF SOUTH FLORIDA PROFESSOR SAYS THAT HE EXPECTS ETH FOUHRT DOSE OF THE COVID-19 VACCINE TO BE RECOMMENDED AS EARLY AS THISPS RING. REPORTING LIVE IN P

Experts believe the peak of omicron either is occurring right now or has occurred, as the total number of cases and the number of people testing positive in Florida went down last week.However, they also said new variants could be around the corner, which is why people need to continue to get vaccinated and boosted.The latest: WPBF 25 News coverage on COVID-19Infectious disease specialist and chairman of infection control at Wellington Regional Medical Center Dr. Larry Bush said he expects the omicron variant to become “manageable" soon.But, he said if more people don’t get vaccinated and boosted, it will allow future the coronavirus to keep mutating."(Further mutations) can only happen if the virus can continue to spread from person to person and have a chance to cause mutations," said Bush. "Because mutations only occur when it’s replicating and it can only replicate in a patient whose immune system allows it to replicate. That means someone who hasn’t been vaccinated, naturally infected or boosted."What you need to know: Tracking COVID-19 in Florida: Tracking cases, vaccinations and moreBush said while some people think this is the time to relax, it is actually the time when it is most important to keep doing what they have been doing to protect themselves."(Total cases) starting to go down the other side of the mountain and it will continue to do that as we go," Bush added. "That’s not to mean that we have to give up as far as doing everything we’re doing or not go get your booster; it means you should. People have to be aware that this isn't the time to stop considering a vaccine. It’s a very contagious virus and you can get re-infected." Bush said the lowest vaccination rate is among children ages 5 to 11, which needs to change."They are a breeding ground for more variants and they can spread it to elderly people. They’ve only hit 18% to 19%," said Bush.He said the upcoming availability of more at-home tests courtesy of the federal government, the increased distribution of monoclonal antibody treatments and the expected availability of oral medications in the near future could keep the cases down as well. Related: New state-run monoclonal antibody site to open in Palm Beach CountyA new variant discovered in France is called IHU and Bush said it's still too early to tell if it will cause any issues in the U.S.He said one thing everyone can do to prepare for another possible spike is purchase at-home tests now, especially as the prospect of the availability of oral medications for COVID-19 becomes more likely."If we do soon have the oral medications available, they have to be taken certainly within the first five days, but the sooner the better. To do that you would have to test positive so if you had symptoms and you had to wait to get an at-home test, the days are going to pass before the effectiveness of that medication can be fully appreciated,” said Bush.He said COVID-19 is likely something people will eventually need to get a yearly booster for in order to protect themselves, like the flu.University of South Florida Professor Edwin Michael: 1. When do you believe the peak of the omicron variant will be/was? "Our forecasts using an Extended SEIR model fitted to FL case/death data to Jan 7, and incorporating changes in reported vaccination rates and estimates of social behavior regarding mask wearing/other social measures using Google trends data, is indicating that depending on how social behavior changes, omicron will peak with up to median 85,000 cases between 3rd and 4th weeks of this month. Cases will begin to reduce rapidly after the peak, but if immunity wanes, then we should expect to see future repeat waves of cases. The size and inter-wave periods of the repeat waves will depend on how long immunity will last with longer duration immunity resulting in smaller repeat waves with longer inter-wave periods."2. What data leads you to believe this?"The above model predictions of peak omicron is beginning to be borne out by case data from FL, although the peak might have occurred already (Jan 11 @ 65,500 daily cases). So we are out by a week and our median predictions are higher than observed at peak (although the later is within our 90% error or confidence band. We will also need to see if predictions of repeat waves will occur (from May onwards)."3. What should people know moving forward given your prediction? What should they do?"Even though the peak of omicron may have occurred or is occurring the predictions for continued repeat waves going forward is warning that this may not be over. This is because with breakthrough infections (because of reduced effectiveness of vaccines) and waning of immunity, permanent herd immunity may not be reached; instead immunity will rise and fall resulting in reformation and infection of susceptibles. Receiving a fourth vaccine from March will help dampen the coming waves but we might have to think of repeat vaccines in that case - like flu. So people should not think this is over until we get more data on whether indeed repeat waves will arrive. Until then they should practice mask wearing in closed places at the very least and take up on the 4th vaccine when it arrives."At the policy level, the predictions for the possibility of future cyclical waves/resurgences are twofold. On the vaccine side, the time has come to somehow combine all current vaccine targets to develop vaccine cocktails for diversifying the antibody response, and for developing vaccines that induce longer-term immunity. The second implication is to convey to the public the likelihood that this might not be over yet until we can clarify new waves. And thus, that people should wear masks as mentioned above, and schools, work settings, and households should use testing and isolation measures if possible so that infection does not spread to more vulnerable individuals. "One more final implication is to ramp up genomic surveillance to monitor rise of new variants because there is no guarantee that another more transmissible, immune evasive and even more virulent variant may not emerge."

, Fla. —

Experts believe the peak of omicron either is occurring right now or has occurred, as the total number of cases and the number of people testing positive in Florida went down last week.

However, they also said new variants could be around the corner, which is why people need to continue to get vaccinated and boosted.

The latest: WPBF 25 News coverage on COVID-19

Infectious disease specialist and chairman of infection control at Wellington Regional Medical Center Dr. Larry Bush said he expects the omicron variant to become “manageable" soon.

But, he said if more people don’t get vaccinated and boosted, it will allow future the coronavirus to keep mutating.

"(Further mutations) can only happen if the virus can continue to spread from person to person and have a chance to cause mutations," said Bush. "Because mutations only occur when it’s replicating and it can only replicate in a patient whose immune system allows it to replicate. That means someone who hasn’t been vaccinated, naturally infected or boosted."

What you need to know: Tracking COVID-19 in Florida: Tracking cases, vaccinations and more

Bush said while some people think this is the time to relax, it is actually the time when it is most important to keep doing what they have been doing to protect themselves.

"(Total cases) starting to go down the other side of the mountain and it will continue to do that as we go," Bush added. "That’s not to mean that we have to give up as far as doing everything we’re doing or not go get your booster; it means you should. People have to be aware that this isn't the time to stop considering a vaccine. It’s a very contagious virus and you can get re-infected."

Bush said the lowest vaccination rate is among children ages 5 to 11, which needs to change.

"They are a breeding ground for more variants and they can spread it to elderly people. They’ve only hit 18% to 19%," said Bush.

He said the upcoming availability of more at-home tests courtesy of the federal government, the increased distribution of monoclonal antibody treatments and the expected availability of oral medications in the near future could keep the cases down as well.

A new variant discovered in France is called IHU and Bush said it's still too early to tell if it will cause any issues in the U.S.

He said one thing everyone can do to prepare for another possible spike is purchase at-home tests now, especially as the prospect of the availability of oral medications for COVID-19 becomes more likely.

"If we do soon have the oral medications available, they have to be taken certainly within the first five days, but the sooner the better. To do that you would have to test positive so if you had symptoms and you had to wait to get an at-home test, the days are going to pass before the effectiveness of that medication can be fully appreciated,” said Bush.

He said COVID-19 is likely something people will eventually need to get a yearly booster for in order to protect themselves, like the flu.

University of South Florida Professor Edwin Michael:

1. When do you believe the peak of the omicron variant will be/was?

"Our forecasts using an Extended SEIR model fitted to FL case/death data to Jan 7, and incorporating changes in reported vaccination rates and estimates of social behavior regarding mask wearing/other social measures using Google trends data, is indicating that depending on how social behavior changes, omicron will peak with up to median 85,000 cases between 3^rd and 4^th weeks of this month. Cases will begin to reduce rapidly after the peak, but if immunity wanes, then we should expect to see future repeat waves of cases. The size and inter-wave periods of the repeat waves will depend on how long immunity will last with longer duration immunity resulting in smaller repeat waves with longer inter-wave periods."

2. What data leads you to believe this?

"The above model predictions of peak omicron is beginning to be borne out by case data from FL, although the peak might have occurred already (Jan 11 @ 65,500 daily cases). So we are out by a week and our median predictions are higher than observed at peak (although the later is within our 90% error or confidence band. We will also need to see if predictions of repeat waves will occur (from May onwards)."

3. What should people know moving forward given your prediction? What should they do?

"Even though the peak of omicron may have occurred or is occurring the predictions for continued repeat waves going forward is warning that this may not be over. This is because with breakthrough infections (because of reduced effectiveness of vaccines) and waning of immunity, permanent herd immunity may not be reached; instead immunity will rise and fall resulting in reformation and infection of susceptibles. Receiving a fourth vaccine from March will help dampen the coming waves but we might have to think of repeat vaccines in that case - like flu. So people should not think this is over until we get more data on whether indeed repeat waves will arrive. Until then they should practice mask wearing in closed places at the very least and take up on the 4^th vaccine when it arrives.

"At the policy level, the predictions for the possibility of future cyclical waves/resurgences are twofold. On the vaccine side, the time has come to somehow combine all current vaccine targets to develop vaccine cocktails for diversifying the antibody response, and for developing vaccines that induce longer-term immunity. The second implication is to convey to the public the likelihood that this might not be over yet until we can clarify new waves. And thus, that people should wear masks as mentioned above, and schools, work settings, and households should use testing and isolation measures if possible so that infection does not spread to more vulnerable individuals.
"One more final implication is to ramp up genomic surveillance to monitor rise of new variants because there is no guarantee that another more transmissible, immune evasive and even more virulent variant may not emerge."

Omicron variant has likely hit its peak in Florida, experts say

TRACKING THE COVID-19 VACCINE

University of South Florida Professor Edwin Michael:

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