US party identification shifts toward Republicans in latest Gallup poll

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As the United States deals with a slew of crises ranging from inflation to the COVID-19 pandemic, public political opinion appears to have shifted in favor of Republicans.

New data from a Gallup survey out Monday show Republicans, who began last year 9 points below Democrats, ended 2021 with a 5-point edge in terms of who voters lean toward. The survey looked specifically at voter party identification.

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“If that were to hold into the 2022 midterms it would be a seismic victory on election night — this is the biggest advantage for Republicans since the 1994 ‘Republican Revolution,'” said political analyst Josh Jordan in a tweet.

In the first quarter of 2021, respondents favored Democrats 49-40. Democrats held a narrowing advantage over the next two quarters until Republicans gained the lead in the last quarter 47-42. Most of the shift came from independent voters who moved away from Democrats by about 5 points and toward Republicans by about 4 points.

Democrats have historically dominated Republicans in this survey, with the GOP only holding a 5-point lead in four quarters since the survey began in 1991, according to Gallup.

Historically, the majority party tends to face losses in the first congressional midterm of a presidency. Both President Barack Obama and President Donald Trump saw their parties lose control over the House during their first midterm election.

Democratic leadership has sought to break from the trend by pursuing an ambitious agenda, successfully passing a bipartisan infrastructure bill last November. However, they have been unsuccessful in passing their social spending and voting reform packages through the Senate.

Last week, a Quinnipiac University poll found only 33% of voters approve of President Joe Biden’s performance. Gallup noted presidential approval ratings can affect party performance. Biden’s average approval rating is about 42%, according to the RealClearPolitics aggregate.

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The Gallup survey is consistent with other polling showing Republican gains among voters. For example, the RealClearPolitics aggregate of polling for party preference in a generic 2022 congressional vote shows Republicans maintaining a 1-point lead. Democrats began 2021 with a 5-point lead in that aggregate.

The survey took data from telephone surveys that included over 12,000 randomly sampled adults asking which party they identified with. For independent voters, it asked which party they leaned toward. The survey did not specify a margin of error.

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