Film review: How the Bills broke Bill Belichick’s Patriots in the Wild Card round

The gap between the Patriots and the Bills on Saturday night was no gap.

It was a gorge.

The Pats were massacred on both sides of the ball. Losing 47-17 in the playoffs to a division rival was as thorough an embarrassment the franchise has experienced in the Bill Belichick era. What happened?

Well, Belichick’s defense got destroyed to a historic degree. Buffalo pulled off the best offensive performance in NFL history, becoming the first team to never record a punt, field goal or turnover over a single game in NFL history. Josh Allen and Co. picked on the Pats’ worst man-to-man matchups, slashed through their zone coverages and bullied them up front.

The Bills have been building to this for years. In Sean McDermott’s third season as head coach and Allen’s second under center, they nipped at the Patriots’ heels during two one-score games in 2019. Then, they swept the Pats in 2020 and split the regular-season meetings this season, including one played under famously unique weather conditions.

But this weekend, Buffalo left no doubt who rules the AFC East.

The Bills boast the better quarterback, tougher defense, deeper roster and a rare coaching staff capable of giving Belichick fits. The Pats entered averaging 20 points per game against McDermott’s teams, and that number shrunk in a game best remembered for offensive explosion.

Because unlike Buffalo, which unlocked new dimensions to its offense as the season progressed — namely, a power running game — the Patriots’ paths to the end zone grew narrower in December and January. By the time Saturday night arrived, the Bills had become the shape-shifting, game-plan team the Pats have long proclaimed themselves to be. And like every other run-first offense that’s trailed by four scores before halftime, the Patriots were knocked out before they knew what hit them.

Here’s what else film revealed about Sunday’s season-ending Wild Card loss:

Mac Jones

Adjusted completion percentage: 80.0

Under pressure: 7-9, 65 yards

Against the blitz: 4-6, 29 yards, INT, sack

Behind the line: 4-5, 37 yards

0-10 yards: 14-19, 86 yards, INT

10-19 yards: 4-6, 36 yards, 2 TDs

20+ yards: 2-5, 73 yards, INT

Notes: Again, nothing came easy for Jones.

The Bills denied most of his favorite routes and yielded little on screens and play-actions. They held  Hunter Henry, his favorite target on key downs, to one catch on four targets. Still, Jones was largely accurate and fed his checkdowns in a game that ultimately swallowed the Patriots offense whole.

But that was expected.

The unexpected?

Brandon Bolden dropping a successfully schemed explosive play on the opening drive. Bills safety Micah Hyde making the defensive play of Buffalo’s season to kill that drive on what otherwise would have been a catchable touchdown pass to Nelson Agholor. And Jones, on two of the four preceding plays, using his legs to create a 16-yard scramble and a 30-yard catch-and-run for Henry.

How did a Bill Belichick-led Patriots defense allow the NFL’s best offensive performance ever?

Overall, Jones played a B to B-minus game. He didn't elevate his teammates in the same way Josh Allen can and did, but those teammates failed him far more than Jones hurt them (see: drops, sacks, penalties and run-stuffs). For a rookie making his playoff debut, his performance was more than acceptable.

Studs

WR Kendrick Bourne

Facing the league's top-ranked scoring defense and stingiest against the pass, Bourne accounted for almost 30% of the Pats' total offense. He won downfield and as a ball carrier, ripping off a 14-yard reverse in the second half. Bourne was their only reliable playmaker.

Plus, he broke the team's passing touchdown drought against Buffalo. Before his he found the end zone in the third quarter, the last time the Pats had scored a passing touchdown was December 2019.

Duds

CB J.C. Jackson

He allowed four catches on five targets for 89 yards. The longest, a 45-yarder to Stefon Diggs, left Jackson in the dust. Jackson also missed two tackles and put forth some questionable effort down the stretch.

The Patriots needed their No. 1 corner to be at his best Saturday, and Jackson folded.

CB Joejuan Williams

It would be a shock to see Williams in a Pats uniform next season.

The team has three seasons worth of evidence that suggests he's not an NFL-caliber corner, at least in Belichick's system. He also allowed four catches in Buffalo, including a 34-yard touchdown to Emmanuel Sanders. He was beat in man-to-man and zone. This was bad.

LB Dont'a Hightower

Sluggish in space and a non-factor against the run, Hightower looked like a shell of himself. He was also a liability in zone coverage and missed a tackle.

FB Jakob Johnson

The Patriots running game averaged more yards per carry when Johnson was off the field. When the ran from two-back sets, they bumbled to 2.1 yards per rush. Johnson also dropped a pass.

Offensive notes

• Personnel breakdown: 60% of snaps in 11 personnel, 21% in 22 personnel, 10% in 12 personnel, 9% in 21F personnel.*
• Personnel production: 6.2 yards/play in 11 personnel, 3.9 yards/play in 22 personnel, 1.8 yards/play in 12 personnel, 1.3 yards/play in 21F personnel.
• Pressure rate allowed: 32.6%
• Play-action rate: 14%
• Yards per carry: 4.5
• First downs: 50% run (4.2 yards per play), 50% pass (3.6 yards per play)
• Third downs: 7-14
• Red-zone efficiency: 2-2
• Broken tackles: Damien Harris 2, Nelson Agholor, Kendrick Bourne, Mac Jones
• Sacks allowed: Trent Brown, Shaq Mason
• QB hits allowed: None
• Hurries allowed: Trent Brown 2, Ted Karras 2, Justin Herron, David Andrews, Team
• Run stuffs allowed: Team 2
• Holding penalties: None
• Drops: Hunter Henry, Brandon Bolden, Jakob Johnson
• The Patriots squandered a promising opening script from Josh McDaniels and impressive start by Mac Jones, who may have previewed what a Year 2 leap could look like with improved mobility.
• Jones extended the Pats' first third-down snap by rolling right and floating a sideline pass to Hunter Henry. Three plays later, Jones converted another third-and-long -- previously his kryptonite -- by scrambling for 16 yards.
• But once Jones' slightly underthrown end-zone pass to Nelson Agholor found Bills safety Micah Hyde instead, the Pats fell into a two-touchdown deficit, punted after three straight runs and soon trailed 20-0.
• Through that early lead and unrelenting pressure on the line of scrimmage, Buffalo completely robbed them of their run-first, bully-ball identity.
• The Pats averaged 2.1 yards per carry with multiple backs on the field and 1.6 (!) from personnel groupings with six offensive linemen.
• If that wasn't bad enough, the Patriots' two-tight end package, long left for dead by the coaching staff, yielded 1.8 yards per play in its 2021 season farewell. Nothing worked.
• Optimizing Jonnu Smith's usage, even if he underperformed this year, has to be an offseason priority. He's talent and cap dollars wasted right now.

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• Saturday offered further evidence the best system for Jones may be a spread-oriented attack. He went 20-of-27 when throwing from 11 personnel groupings, and played most efficiently from 11 personnel most of the season.
• In retrospect, the Pats offense operated down the stretch as if it was obligated to maximize the talent around Jones instead of his individual strengths. As much as the Patriots had built themselves to play smashmouth football, that style put them at a disadvantage once opponents staked an early lead, an all-too-often occurrence after the bye week.
• The best designed NFL offenses start with the quarterback's skill set and build out from there. Yes, Jones is a rookie. But his processing and quick release are advanced for a quarterback at this stage of his career.
• Now, the trouble with constructing a three-receiver would be the Patriots' current wideouts can't win consistently versus man coverage. Buffalo suffocated the Pats receivers in man-to-man, even as a zone-based defense.
• A way to potentially marry a smashmouth run game with Jones' talents is incorporating more RPOs, something the Pats have largely been reluctant to do. Jones thrived in an RPO offense at Alabama.
• Rough day for Trent Brown, who allowed a sack at the end of the first half because he let up on Jones' attempted fake spike. He was also responsible for two hurries.
• The offensive penalties were as costly as they were inexcusable: A false start, delay of game and too many men on the field flag.
• The Patriots' fourth-longest play of the day was a roughing the passer penalty. Beyond the stagnant running game, two interceptions and so-so pass protection, that says everything about the Pats' struggles Saturday.

Defensive notes

• Personnel breakdown: 45% three-safety nickel, 43% three-cornerback nickel package, 10% dime, 2% goal-line.**
• Pressure rate: 32%
• Blitz rate: 27%
• Blitz efficacy: 12.4 yards allowed per play, 2 TDs
• Yards per carry allowed: 6.0
• Third downs: 6-7
• Red-zone efficiency: 0-3
• Sacks: None
• QB hits: Matt Judon, Myles Bryant
• Hurries: Christian Barmore 2, Kyle Van Noy 2, Dont'a Hightower, Davon Godchaux, Deatrich Wise
• Run stuffs: None
• Interceptions: None
• Pass deflections: Lawrence Guy
• Missed tackles: J.C. Jackson 2, Devin McCourty, Kyle Dugger, Kyle Van Noy, Christian Barmore, Myles Bryant, Daniel Ekuale
• Down to J.C. Jackson and spare parts at cornerback, the Patriots nonetheless opened with the same three-corner nickel personnel they used for most of the two regular-season meetings.
• Over their first two series, the Pats played a 50/50 split of man-to-man and zone coverage, including a few cleverly disguised zone calls. But Allen flat-out torched their snaps of man coverage, picking on mismatches as he went 5-of-6 for 46 yards and two touchdowns, plus a 26-yard scramble.
• That spooked the coaching staff into deploying more three-safety personnel and calling zone for the rest of the game. Of course, that didn't help.
• Allen finished 13-of-16 for 215 yards and a couple touchdowns versus zone, plus two scrambles for 17 yards. He either calmly opted for checkdowns or rifled strikes downfield from clean pockets. On scrambles, he sidestepped incoming rushers with ease, exploiting the Patriots' lack of speed at the second level.
• From those zone defenses, the Patriots wanted to affect Allen with "safe pressure;" calls that rushed four players, including an off-ball linebacker or defensive back who replaces a line-of-scrimmage defender that drops into coverage.

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• But like their standard four-man rushes and even their blitzes, the Pats' safe pressure achieved little to nothing. Matt Judon registered the team's only QB hit, just his second since the bye week.
• After their midseason break, the Pats' sack rate plummeted, a reflection of their overreliance on Judon to create pressure. The Patriots also failed to create any kind of penetration, registering zero tackles for loss. They finished with just 10 over their last five games.

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• The Bills also pounded away at their defensive front for 174 yards, including 81 from running back Devin Singletary. Buffalo wisely opened rushing lanes with the use of RPOs -- which Miami used to edge the Pats the week before -- and the threat of Allen taking the ball on option plays.
• In the same way Judon, the best player in the Patriots' front seven, failed, so did J.C. Jackson. He got smoked in 1-on-1 coverage, just like the rest of the Pats corners. The Bills picked on everyone in the worst performance by a Bill Belichick secondary since 2017.
• Myles Bryant and Joejuan Williams both got benched, forcing practice-squad corners D'Angelo Ross and DeVante Bausby into action, along with special teamer Justin Bethel.

Statistics for passing depth, broken tackles and missed tackles courtesy of Pro Football Focus.

*11 personnel = one running back, one tight end; 12 personnel = one running back, two tight ends;  21F personnel = two backs, one tight end; 21H personnel = two halfbacks, one tight end.

**Base defense = four defensive backs; nickel defense = five defensive backs; dime defense = six defensive backs.