Portland Trail Blazers at Washington Wizards odds, picks and prediction

USA Today Sportsbookwire

The Portland Trail Blazers (16-25) travel to the nation's capital Saturday to play the Washington Wizards (22-20). The tip-off at the Capital One Arena is set for 7 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Trail Blazers vs. Wizards odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Portland (+11.5) got hammered by the Nuggets 140-108 in Denver Thursday, snapping a two-game winning streak (2-0 ATS). The Trail Blazers are 15-25-1 ATS and 19-21-1 O/U with the toughest strength of schedule.

Washington won its third consecutive game Wednesday after beating the Orlando Magic 112-106 but failed to cover as 6.5-point home favorites. The Wizards are 18-23-1 ATS and 22-19-1 O/U with the 15th-toughest schedule.

Trail Blazers at Wizards odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 3 p.m. ET.

Money line: Trail Blazers +250 (bet $100 to win $250) | Wizards -320 (bet $320 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Trail Blazers +6.5 (-102) | Wizards -6.5 (-122)
Over/Under (O/U): 215.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)

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Trail Blazers at Wizards key injuries

Trail Blazers

PG Damian Lillard (abdomen) out
SG C.J. McCollum (lung/chest) out
SF Norman Powell (health and safety protocols) out
PF Larry Nance Jr. (knee) out

Wizards

SG Bradley Beal (health and safety protocols) out
PF Davis Bertans (foot) out

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Trail Blazers at Wizards odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Trail Blazers 114, Wizards 111

Money line

Slight "LEAN" to the TRAIL BLAZERS (+250) for a tiny wager, if at all, because both Portland's spread and money line is mispriced.

The Trail Blazers are bad, and there are several reasons to bet against Portland such as trends, the injury report, etc. But, the Wizards aren't as good as their record indicates.

In fact, Washington has the third-highest win differential based on adjusted net rating at plus-3.3 (CTG), and a negative net rating despite a winning record. Basically, the Wizards have three more wins than it should.

Furthermore, Trail Blazers PG Anfernee Simons has been ballin' out since debuting the starting lineup five games ago.

Over that span, Simons is scoring 27.8 points on 51.1% shooting (44.6% from behind the arc) with 7.6 assists against just 2.8 turnovers per game.

Also, the Wizards will be without All-Star Bradley Beal, which means F Kyle Kuzma will have his role expanded.

Kuzma is going off in January; he's averaging 26.4 points on 54.7% shooting with 11.9 rebounds per game this month.

But, Portland has a couple of athletic wings to throw at Kuzma - such as forwards Nassir Little and Robert Covington.

The bottom line is Simons will light up Wizards PG Spencer Dinwiddie, Little and Covington should reduce Kuzma's effectiveness.

Again, only SPRINKLE on the TRAIL BLAZERS (+250) and bet more on Portland's spread since that's the sharper play.

Against the spread

Definitely BET the TRAIL BLAZERS +6.5 (-102) heavier than or instead of their money line as a fade against this overpriced Washington team.

Granted, Portland's ATS trends in this spot aren't pretty. But, the Trail Blazers are getting bet by sharp money , and there's no way the Wizards -6.5 (-122) is a good bet.

Washington is 0-5 ATS in its last five games, 1-6 ATS when laying 5-7 points and 6-12-1 ATS versus teams with a losing record. More importantly, 75% of the public is betting on the Wizards, according to Pregame.com.

The TRAIL BLAZERS +6.5 (-102) is my favorite wager in this game.

Over/Under

PASS because I'm shaken by how low this total is and its reverse line movement . According to Pregame.com, roughly 85% of the action is on the Over, but this total has ticked down from the 217.5-point opener. Also, both teams play at a below-average pace, and each is missing an All-Star.

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