Toronto Raptors at Milwaukee Bucks odds, picks and prediction

USA Today Sportsbookwire

The Milwaukee Bucks (27-17) host the Toronto Raptors (20-19) Saturday at the Fiserv Forum for a 6:30 p.m. ET tip-off. Below, we look at the Raptors vs. Bucks odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Toronto has dropped back-to-back games to the Phoenix Suns 99-95 Tuesday as 4.5-point favorites and at the Detroit Pistons 103-87 yesterday (Friday) as 9-point favorites. Before the back-to-back losses, Toronto won six straight.

Over the past two weeks, the Raptors are sixth in non-garbage time net rating at plus-8.9 and the 14th-ranked ATS margin at plus-0.9, according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).

Milwaukee stopped a two-game losing skid by clobbering the Golden State Warriors 118-99 due in part to a Giannis Antetokounmpo triple-double.

In the last 14 days, the Bucks are 3-4 straight-up (SU), 3-4 ATS and 2-5 O/U with the ninth-best non-garbage time net rating at plus-4.5 but the 19th-ranked ATS margin at minus-0.4, per CTG.

The Raptors have won and covered four straight games with the Bucks including both regular-season meetings this season. But, Giannis played in neither Raptors-Bucks game this season.

Raptors at Bucks odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:50 a.m. ET.

Money line: Raptors +230 (bet $100 to win $230) | Bucks -300 (bet $300 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Raptors +6.5 (-102) | Bucks -6.5 (-122)
Over/Under (O/U): 221.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Raptors at Bucks key injuries

Raptors

PG Jrue Holiday (ankle) out

Bucks

SG Gary Trent (ankle) questionable

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Raptors at Bucks odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Bucks 118, Raptors 103

Money line

PASS ON THE MONEY LINE.

I think Milwaukee wins this game running away, but the Bucks (-300) is way too expensive for an NBA regular-season money line favorite.

The example I like to use to explain this would be the Bucks losing outright to the Brooklyn Nets in the Orlando bubble in August 2020 as -3000 favorites.

Against the spread

"LEAN" to the BUCKS -6.5 (-122) because I prefer Milwaukee's first-half line instead. But, the Bucks had several guards return from injury recently including a few that missed Milwaukee's loss to Toronto Jan. 5.

For instance, Bucks guards Donte DiVincenzo, George Hill, Grayson Allen and Pat Connaughton missed that contest and returned from injury earlier this week.

Their impact was felt immediately when Milwaukee steamrolled Golden State Thursday because these guards defend ball handlers and space the floor with their 3-point shooting.

Also, Toronto isn't deep in the backcourt, and G Fred VanVleet is the only reliable ball handler that can create his own shot. Whereas Giannis and Khris Middleton supersede Raptors forwards OG Anunoby and Pascal Siakam.

Furthermore, the Raptors score a lot of easy buckets that the Bucks will not allow. Milwaukee secures the paint, doesn't turn the ball over much and cleans up the glass. It'll be tough for Toronto to execute like it wants to.

But, the BUCKS -3.5 (-112) FIRST-HALF SPREAD is my best bet in this game because Milwaukee has a plus-11.3 first-half scoring margin over the past three games while Toronto has a minus-3.3 first-half scoring margin.

Milwaukee made a statement in their win over Golden State Thursday, and I think the Bucks ride that momentum into this game and trample the Raptors early.

I "LIKE" the BUCKS -3.5 (-112) FIRST-HALF SPREAD for 1 unit and "lean"BUCKS -6.5 (-122) full game.

Over/Under

PASS because my prediction aligns with the projected score; hence there's no value for me in the total. But, I "lean" to the Under slightly because I think Milwaukee's defense shuts down Toronto.

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