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Wild-Card Betting Preview and Best Bet: Cardinals-Rams

Analysis and best bet for Monday night's wild card matchup between NFC West rivals.

Super Wild-Card Weekend concludes on Monday night with an NFC West showdown when Matthew Stafford and the Rams play host to Kyler Murray and the Cardinals.

No. 5 seed Arizona, which finished in second place in the NFC West with an 11-6 straight up (SU) record, rewarded NFL bettors after posting a 10-7 against the spread (ATS) mark. The Cardinals, who were a phenomenal 8-1 both SU and ATS on the road, split the regular-season series with their division foe.

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Los Angeles fell to the No. 4 seed after falling in overtime to San Francisco in Week 18. Despite the loss, the Rams still were able to capture the NFC West for the third time in the last five seasons. The Rams, who finished with a 12-5 SU record, burned NFL bettors with an 8-9 ATS mark. Los Angeles heads into the postseason having won five of its last six games.

The immediate question for bettors is easy: Who do you believe will earn their first career playoff win? Kyler Murray, in his first career playoff game, or Matthew Stafford in his fourth postseason start (but first as quarterback of the Rams)?

Check Wild-Card Weekend Lines at SI Sportsbook

Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

No. 5 Arizona (11-6 SU, 10-7 ATS) at No. 4 LA Rams (12-5 SU, 8-9 ATS)

Spread: Arizona Cardinals +4 (-110) | Los Angeles Rams -4 (-110)

Moneyline: Arizona (+165) | Los Angeles (-200)

Total: 49.5– Over (-110) | Under 49.5 (-110)

Public (Spread) Betting Percentages: ARZ 81 % | LAR 19%

Game Info: Monday Jan. 17, 2022 8:15 pm EST | NBC

Editor's Note - Odds are subject to change

The line has held steady since its opener in favor of Los Angeles (12-5 SU; 8-9 ATS) over Arizona (11-6 SU; 10-7 ATS) as 4-point home favorites at SI Sportsbook. The Rams remain more than field goal favorites, despite overwhelming public steam backing the Cardinals.

Arizona, which owns the NFL’s 11th-best scoring offense (26.4 points per game), will now face an Aaron Donald-led Rams defense that finished among the top defenses, forcing 24 turnovers. On the ground, the Cardinals offensive attack is led by a three-headed attack of James Conner, Chase Edmonds as well as quarterback Kyler Murray. As of Friday morning, Conner, who finished tied for second in the league with 15 rushing touchdowns, had yet to practice and his status for the game is in doubt. His absence would be a big blow, but Edmonds is more than capable of filling in. In the first meeting with the Rams, the versatile fourth-year back gained a season-high 120 rushing yards, while adding four receptions for 19 yards through the air.

Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

In the passing attack, wideouts Christian Kirk, A.J. Green and tight end Zach Ertz will be looked upon to shoulder the load in the absence of star wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins. Kirk, who led the club in receptions (77), receiving yards (982) and receiving touchdowns (5) struggled in the two games against the Rams. Over the two meetings, Kirk only hauled in a total of seven receptions for 91 yards and no touchdowns. However, veteran Green thrived as Murray’s top target in both matchups. Overall, Green has amassed 12 receptions for 169 yards and a touchdown avoiding Jalen Ramsey in coverage.

On the other side of the ball, Stafford piloted Sean McVay’s high-powered offensive attack that finished fifth in the NFL in scoring at 27.1 points per game. Stafford, who finished third in the NFL in passing yards (4,886) and second in passing touchdowns (41), will face an Arizona defense that has surrendered the seventh-fewest passing yards (214.4) per game. In the two meetings with Arizona, Stafford has averaged 283.5 passing yards while tossing five touchdowns.

Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

In the passing game, Los Angeles possesses the best wide receiver in the NFL in Cooper Kupp. Kupp led all wideouts in receptions (145), receiving yards (1,947) and receiving touchdowns (16). The exciting Kupp, who struggled in the Week 4 loss to Arizona, posting a season-low 64 receiving yards, bounced back in the club’s Week 13 win, hauling in 13 receptions for 123 yards and a touchdown. Kupp anchors a solid cast of offensive weapons that includes Odell Beckham Jr., Van Jefferson as well as tight end Tyler Higbee. Beckham, who has caught a touchdown in five of eight games since being acquired from the Browns, was instrumental in Arizona’s win over the Cardinals, catching six of seven targets for 77 yards and a touchdown.

The Rams rushing attack, which has found success with Sony Michel, could get a massive boost from the return of Cam Akers who suffered a torn Achilles prior to training camp. Akers' return, combined with Michel’s lead production, could be the key to victory against an Arizona defense that has struggled to stop the run, allowing 114.8 rushing yards per game.

The Cardinals were the epitome of the term “road warriors,” posting an impressive 8-1 SU and ATS mark in the regular season, but they are just 1-4 ATS over their last five games. The latter number can easily be attributed to club's offensive struggles following life without DeAndre Hopkins. The Rams, who have won nine of the last 10 games against Arizona, will accentuate that loss of Hopkins on Monday night. This game could be one the highest-scoring games of the Wild-Card round, but in the end, respected money in Vegas is investing that it’s Stafford who will earn his first playoff victory ahead of Murray.

BET: Los Angeles -4 (-110)

SI BET REVIEW

2021 SI Betting Monday Night Football: 9-8 ATS / Props 16-12 +5.75 units

2021 SI Betting NFL Football Overall YTD: 45-37 ATS & Props +11.12 Units

2020 SI Betting NFL Football: 72-58-1 ATS (55%)

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Frankie Taddeo is a successful high-stakes fantasy football player who created the first-ever DFS program ever offered in a Las Vegas sportsbook. Frankie is SI Betting's Senior Analyst and provides his significant experience and resources in the sports betting scene. You can follow Frankie on Twitter @Frankie_Fantasy for his latest betting and fantasy insights from Las Vegas.

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