The Atlanta Hawks (17-23) head to South Beach Friday for the second game of their home-and-away, back-to-back with the Miami Heat (26-15). Tip-off at the FTX Arena is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Hawks vs. Heat odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.
The Heat, who were 2.5-point underdogs, clobbered the Hawks 115-91 in Atlanta in the opener of their back-to-back Wednesday.
Miami outshot Atlanta from everywhere on the floor and won three of the “four factors” as the Heat outscored the Hawks in three of the four quarters.
Atlanta is 1-4 straight up (SU), 1-4 against the spread (ATS) and 2-3 Over/Under (O/U) with the third-worst net rating at minus-9.7 in January.
Miami is 3-2 SU, 4-1 ATS and 4-1 O/U with the sixth-best net rating at plus-8.5 this month.
Also see: Bet Slippin’ Podcast: NBA January 14 breakdown
Hawks at Heat odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 5:55 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Hawks +160 (bet $100 to win $160) | Heat -200 (bet $200 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Hawks +4.5 (-105) | Heat -4.5 (-120)
- Over/Under (O/U): 220.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)
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Hawks at Heat key injuries
Hawks
- C Clint Capela (ankle) out
- SG Kevin Huerter (foot) questionable
Heat
- C Bam Adebayo (thumb) out
- SF Jimmy Butler (ankle) questionable
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Hawks at Heat odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Heat 118, Hawks 107
Money line
PASS. Even though I think the Heat win handily, Miami (-200) is too expensive for any NBA regular-season, money line favorite, especially one playing against a team that just went to the conference finals last season.
Against the spread
BET the HEAT -4.5 (-120) for 1 unit because I see this one playing out the same way as Wednesday’s Hawks-Heat meeting in Atlanta.
Click here for my analysis of that first game. The only change between the two meetings may be the possible return of Miami’s Butler, who is playing at an All-NBA level.
Atlanta struggles on the glass, on the interior and in pick-and-roll action without Capela in the lineup. Miami outrebound Atlanta 54-37 Wednesday and outscored the Hawks in the paint 46-30.
Miami beats up on bad defenses and Atlanta has the third-worst adjusted defensive rating.
The Hawks have been terrible on the road this season. Atlanta is 9-13 overall on the road (8-14 ATS) with the 19th-ranked adjusted net rating at minus-3.4, according to CleaningTheGlass.com.
BET the HEAT -4.5 (-120).
Over/Under
“LEAN” to the OVER 220.5 (-115) for a one-third unit if at all, because Miami’s point spread is my favorite wager in this game.
The Heat are 9-7 O/U at home, while the Hawks are 12-10 O/U on the road. Miami’s offense should torch Atlanta’s defense from deep.
The Heat have the second-best 3-point percentage and the Hawks are 21st in defensive 3-point percentage. If Atlanta can shoot a little better than it did Wednesday, then this Over will cash.
My prediction isn’t far off the projected total, so GO LITE on OVER 220.5 (-115) if you bet it.
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