Najee Harris, J.J. Watt headline NFL wild-card injury report

By Dr. Matt Provencher
FOX Sports Injury & Performance Analyst

The NFL playoffs have finally arrived, and several key injuries could have an impact on the weekend's wild-card round.

Here is the lowdown on the big injuries, including some players expected to return from their ailments, with an analysis of the impact on their production.

Tyreek Hill, WR, Chiefs

Injury: Heel bruise

Impact: Affects jumping, cutting, speed

Surgery: No

Potential time missed: 0-1 game

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Notes: Hill injured his heel (the calcaneus bone) last week after landing on it wrong during pregame warm-ups. He played in a very limited capacity so that he didn’t worsen the injury. Hill has dealt with heel injuries in the past; he was on the injury report in Week 15 of the 2018 season for an injury just like this one.

Although this injury can affect jumping, cutting and speed, which make Hill who he is, the fact that he got in the game this past weekend is good news for the Chiefs. We will continue to watch how Hill progresses this week, but it looks like he will be good to go for the wild-card game. 

Production upon return: The Chiefs might limit his snap count by a small amount this weekend if he is still feeling the effects of the bruise. When he is in there, however, we should expect the explosive Hill we are used to seeing.

Najee Harris, RB, Steelers

Injury: Right elbow

Impact: Affects carrying the ball and ball security, stiff-arm ability

Surgery: No

Potential time missed: 0-1 game

Notes: Harris went down on the third play of the Steelers' game Sunday after landing awkwardly on his right arm — and a Baltimore defender's thigh forced his elbow in — causing him to miss the remainder of the first half. Based on video analysis, Harris most likely injured his ulnar collateral ligament (UCL). He was able to return but did not use his right arm to carry the ball. He was able to catch a few passes in the second half while wearing a sleeve for protection and stability. 

Harris will have additional imaging this week to determine the severity of his injury. Given that he was able to return on Sunday, Harris most likely suffered a sprain. I expect him to play Sunday against Kansas City, and we might even see him in a brace to help protect this area.

Production upon return: These types of injuries normally sideline a player for a game or two, but given the magnitude of this game and the fact that even last week Harris wanted to return to play, he will most likely be ready to go barring any mid-week setbacks. However, our data suggests that he will most likely have a 5-10% decrease in production. 

Cyril Grayson, WR, Buccaneers

Injury: Hamstring

Impact: Affects burst, jumping, deceleration

Surgery: No

Potential time missed: 0-1 game

Notes: We'll give you the good news first: Coach Bruce Arians said Grayson’s hamstring injury isn’t as severe as originally thought. However, Grayson is still questionable for the Bucs' game Sunday against Philadelphia. If not handled properly, hamstring strains can worsen and become chronic nagging injuries.

The Bucs are already depleted at wide receiver and could really use Grayson's presence. But if they don’t want to see this injury get worse, they will have to see how he progresses this week and possibly limit his snap count against the Eagles.

Production upon return: These injuries usually decrease a player's snap count by approximately 25-35% in his first game back, and I think the Bucs will play this one carefully so that they can use Grayson moving forward if they win this weekend. 

Jimmy Garoppolo, QB, 49ers

Injury: Torn right thumb UCL

Impact: Affects grip, throwing accuracy

Surgery: Potentially in the offseason

Potential time missed: Returned last week

Notes: Although this is an injury that will most likely require surgery in the offseason, Garoppolo suited up and was able to lead the 49ers to a playoff berth last week. This type of injury can affect grip and accuracy, which we did see, as Garoppolo threw two interceptions. But he also went 23-for-32 for 316 yards, which showed that he was able to play at a high level despite the injury.

The 49ers will have Trey Lance ready to go if things do go wrong, but we will follow Garoppolo’s progression this week and his readiness for this weekend.

Production upon return: Injuries like this can be particularly difficult for QBs and can reduce their productivity. The 49ers wouldn’t put Garoppolo out there if they didn’t think he gave them the best chance to advance, so I expect that he is feeling good and ready to play. He showed us what he can accomplish with the injury, and now he understands what he needs to do to win going into wild-card weekend.

Leonard Fournette, RB, Buccaneers

Injury: Hamstring

Impact: Affects speed, change of direction, power, burst

Surgery: No

Potential time missed: Likely will return this week

Notes: Fournette has missed the past three weeks due to a hamstring injury that he sustained against the Saints, in a game in which the Bucs suffered several injuries to their offense. Coach Bruce Arians said he expects Fournette to be ready. Fournette has been rehabbing the past few weeks, and the Bucs are eager to get their big-play running back on the field.

Production upon return: Hamstrings can be finicky and can reduce a player's snap percentage by 25-35% in his first game back. In addition, our data suggests that a running back has a 15-18% dip in production in his first two games back. I expect the Bucs to ease Fournette in to see how his hamstring reacts, then ramp up his carries if he feels good as the game progresses. 

Cam Akers, RB, Rams

Injury: Achilles rupture

Impact: Affects burst, cutting, power

Surgery: Yes

Potential time missed: Returned last week 

Notes: Akers made a remarkable recovery following his Achilles rupture, returning fewer than six months after tearing it during a workout in July. Last week, the Rams got him out on the field, and he had five carries for three yards and three receptions for another 10 yards. Last week was less about production and more about the fact that Akers was able to return and test how he felt. He played just 20% of the snaps in the game, and while we expect Sony Michel to still lead the team in carries Monday against the Cardinals, Akers' return is a huge win for the Rams.

Production upon return: Expect to see a little more of Akers this week as the game progresses. The Rams won’t want to rush him, but he will give them another weapon to mix in for their playoff run. Our data shows that running backs experience an 18-22% drop in production in their first six-to-eight games back after an Achilles injury.

J.J. Watt, DE, Cardinals

Injury: Left shoulder (labrum, biceps, rotator cuff)

Impact: Affects pass rush, strength, power

Surgery: Yes

Potential time missed: Possible return this week

Notes: Watt had what many thought would be season-ending shoulder surgery in November. Much to Arizona’s benefit, though, it might not be season-ending. Watt is looking to practice Thursday and potentially play Monday against the Rams. That would be a huge help to an Arizona team that has one win in its past five games. Watt might just be the spark the Cardinals need to get their confidence back and apply some much-needed pressure on Matthew Stafford, who is third in passing yards and second in touchdowns this season.

Production upon return: If Watt returns this week, expect to see a 5-10% decrease in snap percentage. Although he will be on the field and will provide some extra explosiveness to Arizona’s defensive line, the team will want to make sure that he is truly ready for game situations and not risk reinjury due to strength deficits or control.

Renowned orthopedist Dr. Matt Provencher and his company, Proven Performance Technology (PPT), deliver data-driven injury insights to football fans. In this first-of-a-kind role as Athlete Injury and Performance Analyst for FOX Sports’ digital platforms, Provencher provides important predictive player health and recovery information about post-injury performance, the impact of weather, field conditions and more.