The turn of the new year means that all ballots for the 2022 Baseball Hall of Fame class have already been cast. And while the results of the BBWAA vote won’t be revealed until Jan. 25, early returns can tell us a lot about what to expect when the announcement is made.
As of the end of New Year’s Day, the team at BBHOFTracker.com -- led by Ryan Thibodaux -- had received 122 (105 public and 7 anonymous) of the estimated 392 ballots that are expected to be cast. That means 28.6% of BBWAA ballots are publicly known more than three weeks before the results are announced.
The early polls can’t tell us everything, but they do give a general idea of who has a shot to get in and who doesn’t. When it comes to the nine former Red Sox players on the ballot, the early indications are quite fascinating.
As of now, here are how those former Red Sox are faring in the Hall of Fame vote. Note that to be elected, players need to receive votes on 75% of submitted ballots and that writers can vote for a maximum of 10 players per ballot.
DAVID ORTIZ (1st year on ballot) -- 82.1% of counted votes
Ortiz, in his first time on the ballot, leads all candidates with 82.1% of the votes so far. That number clears the 75% threshold by a good margin but doesn’t guarantee Ortiz will get in, as the final numbers tend to come in lower than the tracker’s early count. Still, Ortiz’s early performance is impressive and shows he does have a real chance of getting in this year. Of all the candidates on the ballot, he has the best shot.
On Thursday, with 98 ballots (or 25% of the total) tallied, Jason Sardell (a trusted source on these matters) ran a projection model and gave Ortiz a 69% chance of making the Hall (based on the number of simulations that landed him over the 75% mark). Since that tally, Ortiz has received votes on 11 of 14 submitted ballots (78.6%), which is a tick lower than where he was three days ago. It appears Ortiz could go either way as a first-ballot Hall of Famer, but the early indications strongly suggest he will get in at some point (which isn’t a surprise).
ROGER CLEMENS (10th year) -- 79.5% of counted votes
Clemens, along with Barry Bonds, Curt Schilling and Sammy Sosa, is on the ballot for the 10th and final time. Though he’s currently clearing the 75% mark (and 79.5% is much higher than the 61.6% he received last year), it appears unlikely that he makes it. Clemens has only gained a single vote among returning voters since last year and Sardell pegged him at having a very slim chance of being elected.
If Clemens and Bonds fall off the ballot (which appears likely due to their ties to PED use), they will each represent fascinating cases for the Veterans Committee in the future.
CURT SCHILLING (10th year) -- 59.8% of counted votes
The early results from the tracker have been more telling about Schilling’s candidacy than any of the other players. After receiving 71.1% of the vote -- and unsuccessfully asking to be taken off the ballot -- a year ago, Schilling’s vote total has fallen below the 60% mark. Most notably, he has lost a net of 11 votes among returning voters. That does not bode well for his chances at all.
At this point, Schilling needs a late surge, which is unlikely considering his contentious relationship with the BBWAA. In all likelihood, his final number will come in significantly lower than it did in 2021.
BILLY WAGNER (7th year) -- 46.4% of counted votes
Wagner, who was only a member of the Red Sox for a brief stretch in 2009, got 46.4%. of the vote last year and is at that exact number so far in 2022. He won’t make it this year but has been steadily trending up and could have a real shot once some of the other players come off the ballot.
MANNY RAMIREZ (6th year) -- 42.0% of counted votes
Ramirez, who was twice suspended for PED use, is trending up after getting just 28.2% in each of the last two years (and 22.8% in 2019). He won’t get in this year but will be an interesting case moving forward as opinions evolve about how to treat steroid users.
JONATHAN PAPELBON (1st year) -- 0.9% of counted votes
Papelbon has gotten one vote -- from Ian Harrison. He has already been eliminated from contention. Barring a miracle, Papelbon won’t get the 5% of votes required to stay on the ballot next year.
A.J. PIERZYNSKI (1st year) -- 0.9% of counted votes
Pierzynski has also gotten exactly one vote, from T.R. Sullivan. He has been eliminated from contention.
CARL CRAWFORD (1st year) -- 0.0% of counted votes
No one has voted for Crawford yet, so he obviously won’t make the Hall. He’s unlikely to receive enough votes to clear 5% and be back on the ballot in 2023.
JAKE PEAVY (1st year) -- 0.0% of counted votes
Peavy has similarly received zero votes in his first year of eligibility. In all likelihood, he’ll fall off the ballot as well.
Related links:
For Boston Red Sox, 2021 was defined by these 30 dates | Chris Cotillo (MLB Notebook)
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