Las Cruces is expected to grow even hotter in the coming decades— according to modeling projections that predict future temperatures similar to current conditions in Phoenix, Arizona.
In a recent presentation, State Climatologist David DuBois told members of the Doña Ana County Planning and Zoning Commission that the annual average temperature of the city could rise to 71.2 degrees by the end of the century.
“We're heading toward a much warmer state, comparing like Phoenix,” DuBois said. “So that is very concerning. It should be concerning to all of us that our climate is changing. We don't know the future, but that's our possibility, and it's highly likely it is heading in that direction.”
Those rising temperatures are expected to negatively impact the severity of future droughts. DuBois says the hotter temperatures will decrease snowpack and increase the evaporation losses of reservoirs.
“The increasing temperatures is forcing future droughts to be more severe than the past,” Dubois said. “Those droughts, the last 20 years are naturally caused, but we're pushing them a little more severe than they would already have occurred…and then our snowpack, we're seeing an overall trend decline in the amount of snow.”
While no clear annual precipitation change is currently predicted, seasonal precipitation patterns are expected to change. Models show that both winter and spring will be drier, leading to a lack of moisture for soil.
In contrast, the southwestern corner of New Mexico is expected to have stronger monsoons in the summer months. Water Resources Engineer Phil King, who recently retired from the civil engineering department at New Mexico State University, says that more extreme precipitation events can ultimately lead to less aquifer recharge.
“Even if we have the same amount of precipitation, it may be concentrated in fewer, more intense precipitation events which is unfortunate because that leads to more flooding and less aquifer recharge and shorter stream flows and things like that,” King said. “And because of the temperature rise, even if the precipitation were to stay the same, we would find ourselves in a more arid climate.”
The state of New Mexico is currently developing a 50-year water plan, working on strategies to improve the state’s water future. King says he remains hopeful that new solutions will be employed to better adapt to rising temperatures.
“This may sound hopeless, but I am actually optimistic about our future,” King said. “And the reason is because I spent 31 years as an educator, training the daughters and sons of New Mexico in water resources engineering. And I have hope that this next generation will do a better job of adapting to this increasingly arid climate than my generation did.”
The 50-year water plan is expected to be finalized by the end of March.
