A week of surprises in Ottawa

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WELCOME TO OTTAWA PLAYBOOK. I’m your host, ZI-ANN LUM. Legislation banning conversion therapy in Canada could receive royal assent as early as today after senators passed a Conservative motion to fast-track the bill through the Senate yesterday — catching Liberals off-guard for the second time in a week.

DRIVING THE DAY

EVERYBODY’S TALKIN’ — Inflation continues to be The Issue and the Bank of Canada rate decision this morning will be more fuel for discussion. While the bank is expected to hold its interest rate at 0.25 percent, POLITICO’s ANDY BLATCHFORD tells Playbook it’s the statement that comes with the rate decision that will draw eyeballs. We hit up Andy in Slack to ask what he’s hearing and what he’s expecting this morning.

What should we be watching for? “A key part of the bank’s message will be around what it has to say about last week’s blockbuster jobs report and the economic unknowns of Omicron. I’ll be on the lookout for changes in the bank’s messaging as to when it will start hiking rates. Of course, any clues about the central bank’s updated thinking on inflation will be something to keep an eye out for as well.”

What are economists saying? “Forecasters like RBC senior economist NATHAN JANZEN say that after the strength Canadians have seen in recent data releases — such as the November Labour Force Survey — there are few arguments left preventing the Bank of Canada from starting to move rates up from their emergency levels. Janzen, like others, expects the first hike in April. Economists are now expecting multiple rate increases next year. That is, of course, unless Covid-19 creates another big surprise.”

SPEAKING OF SURPRISES — Legislation banning conversion therapy in Canada may become law as early as today. Senators swiftly passed the legislation Tuesday, surprising Senator MARC GOLD, the government representative in the Senate. His office tells Playbook that since Bill C-4 arrived in the upper chamber, he’d been working with all the different Senate groups with a goal to hold a final vote on the bill before winter break.

— Motion motives: Interim Conservative Senate Leader, Sen. LEO HOUSAKOS, proposed fast-tracking the bill and accused the Trudeau government of using LGBTQS2+ Canadians as “political pawns” and the issue as a “political weapon.” The Quebec senator proposed the speedy passage, calling it an issue of “universal interest” that doesn’t need “unnecessary debates.”

THIS JUST IN — The German parliament today elected Social Democrat OLAF SCHOLZ as the country’s ninth postwar chancellor.Scholz takes office at the head of a coalition of Social Democrats, Greens and Free Democrats, heralding a new political era after 16 years of conservative-led rule under ANGELA MERKEL. A total of 395 MPs in the Bundestag voted for Scholz, 63, a former mayor of Hamburg who served as finance minister in the outgoing government. Scholz needed a minimum of 369 votes — an absolute majority of all Bundestag seats — to be elected. Our colleagues in Europe have a live blog running with news, reaction and analysis.

NEW U.S. ENVOY — Sporting a mask that flashed both the U.S. and Canadian flags, DAVID COHEN, Biden’s newly minted ambassador to Ottawa entered Rideau Hall’s ballroom Tuesday to meet Governor General MARY SIMON. Cohen presented his credentials to Simon in a step that officially installed him as the first U.S. ambassador to Canada in two years. POLITICO’s ANDY BLATCHFORD was there to witness Cohen’s introduction to the GG — and the city’s frigid weather.

— Andy’s dispatch: “After the ceremony in the warm confines of the Queen’s official residence in Canada, Cohen ventured outside into sub-freezing temperatures to give a brief statement and to take a couple of questions from reporters. (This time he wore a coat.) Cohen called the weather ‘a little bit brisk’ and boasted how he’d already experienced his first Ottawa ‘snowstorm’ on the weekend.” (If he thought that was a snowstorm, he’s in for a surprise.)

It wasn’t all pageantry. During that quick conversation with reporters, Cohen discussed China policy, diplomatic boycotts, NORAD, NATO, the U.S.-Canada road map and commercial relationships. Pro readers can find those details here.

DAYS WITH NO DOCS: 43 — More than a month has passed since Cabinet was sworn in, and still the Prime Minister’s Office has made no mention of new mandate letters for ministers. Playbook is counting.

READING THE ROOM — Former Canadian ambassador to China, GUY SAINT-JACQUES, believes DOMINIC BARTON’s exit is an opportunity to appoint a career diplomat, someone better equipped to deal with “the dark side of China.”

— Reason No. 1: Speaking from Montreal, Saint-Jacques told Playbook Barton was initially praised for his experience with Chinese state-owned enterprises and some ministries. But the McKinsey executive’s “limited” experience left him ill-equipped to deal with hostage diplomacy, sanctions and consulting directly on human rights abuse, he said. “This was all new for him.”

— Good political appointments “rare.” Saint-Jacques said there have only been a few political appointments who have done a good job in his opinion, singling out BOB RAE, Canada’s Ambassador to the U.N., as a “rare” example of an effective diplomat.

“We have entered into the era of diplomacy as a show,” Saint-Jacques said, explaining the trend of plum diplomatic postings being treated as favors to business circles. To illustrate a different tact, he pointed to prime ministers BRIAN MULRONEY and JEAN CHRÉTIEN whose governments were influential in Washington. “We were using, to the full extent, our diplomatic network, to launch initiatives,” Saint-Jacques said. “Canada was visible.” Now, he said, Canada is paying the price for years of neglect to its foreign policy.

— The safe protest: Canada has yet to announce if it will follow the U.S. and the European Union in officially snubbing the Beijing Olympics, a stance Conservative Leader ERIN O’TOOLE, NDP foreign affairs critic HEATHER MCPHERSON, and the Bloc Québécois’ ALEXIS BRUNELLE-DUCEPPE have been urging the PM to take. Saint-Jacques said because Chinese President XI JINPING intends to use the Olympics as a platform to boost China as a superpower, a boycott “in good company” is an easy route for Canadian protest.

“The other thing is that it might help those progressive forces inside the Communist Party of China not to question the direction that Xi has set for China,” he said.

— A “perfect excuse.” “It’s likely that Canada will join the boycott of the opening ceremony of the Winter Olympics,” Saint-Jacques tells Playbook. “It’s likely that Canada will decide that Huawei should not be allowed to participate in 5G development.” Asked why he believes these decisions are likely, the former ambassador pointed to events of the past three years that have opened many people’s eyes to a country “too powerful to face any consequences.”

THE COUNTERPOINT — Former CHRÉTIEN-era cabinet minister SERGIO MARCHI disagrees that a career diplomat is the way forward with Canada-China relations. Why? Marchi wrote to Playbook: “Because we want to signal that those countries and posts are priorities for our government and country. Because we want to ensure that when that Ambassador speaks, he or she speaks with the full authority and closeness of our PM.”

Marchi argued that Canada needs to recognize its relationship with China is indispensable, in spite of the country being “increasingly belligerent” and offensive at times. “We cannot afford to either ignore or isolate them. We need to engage them, and double down. Show them that they matter,” he said. “Only then, will we have the chance to right the relationship and right their wrongs.”

TORIES PUSH FOR AFGHANISTAN COMMITTEE — MPs will vote today on an opposition day motion that proposes the creation of a new all-party committee to review the government’s response in Afghanistan when U.S. troops left the country in August. Conservative Leader ERIN O’TOOLE said the fall of Afghanistan to the Taliban this summer was the “biggest diplomatic disaster in decades” and wants the timing of the federal election to be under the committee’s purview, too.

— First CPC oppo motion of new session: The lengthy motion asks for the disclosure of documents (“all memoranda, emails, documents, notes or other records”) from the PMO, national defence, foreign affairs, trade and development and immigration departments related to contingency planning for the eventual withdrawal of U.S. troops.

— Related reading from POLITICO: Inside the Biden team’s five-day scramble as Afghanistan collapsed.

PMO SHAKEUP — Two veterans of the prime minister’s comms shop are moving on. The PMO announced Tuesday that CHANTAL GAGNON is now Foreign Affairs Minister MÉLANIE JOLY’s deputy chief of staff (and has been for three weeks now). ALEX WELLSTEAD (currently on parental leave) is heading to industry to be Minister FRANÇOIS-PHILIPPE CHAMPAGNE’s communications director at the end of January.

TODAY'S HIGHLIGHTS

— Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU has “private meetings” and will attend the Liberals’ 10 a.m. national caucus meeting as well as question period in the afternoon. At 3:20 p.m., the PM has a meeting with social activist ILWAD ELMAN with Housing and Diversity and Inclusion Minister AHMED HUSSEN and Women and Gender Equality Minister MARCI IEN.

— Deputy Prime Minister CHRYSTIA FREELAND is in “private meetings” and will attend the 10 a.m. national caucus meeting.

— Conservative Leader ERIN O’TOOLE will attend his party’s national caucus meeting.

— Bloc Leader YVES-FRANÇOIS BLANCHET has a 9 a.m. press conference with MPs GABRIEL STE-MARIE and NATHALIE SINCLAIR-DESGAGNÉ to discuss Bill C-2.

— NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH will take part in a national caucus meeting at 9 a.m. He’ll hold a media availability at 12:30 p.m.

— Foreign Affairs Minister MÉLANIE JOLY is a 6 a.m. panelist with four journalists to talk about “media freedom and sustainability” at Biden’s virtual Summit for Democracy.

— Environment Minister STEVEN GUILBEAULT, Natural Resources Minister JONATHAN WILKINSON and Fisheries Minister JOYCE MURRAY are meeting for a 7:30 p.m. fireside chat hosted by the Canadian Parks and Wilderness Society’s SANDRA SCHWARTZ.

— Treasury Board President MONA FORTIER will give opening remarks off the top of a Corporate Knights panel today on the topic of decarbonizing the transport sector. She’ll also appear at the Senate Committee on National Finance on the Supplementary Estimates.

— Justice Minister DAVID LAMETTI will appear before the Senate Committee on Legal and Constitutional Affairs regarding Bill C-3.

— In Alberta, Premier JASON KENNEY will speak to the Calgary Chamber of Commerce at 11:30 a.m. MST.

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EVENTS

SAVE THE DATE: TRIVIA — Don’t make plans for Dec. 21 at 7 p.m. ET. Playbook is whipping up our first-ever virtual trivia night with Outside The Box Trivia. It will be a chance to show off your knowledge of #cdnpoli. RSVP with your team details to Ottawa Playbook. Registration is free. We’ll send sign up details. Quick note: The trivia platform enables you to gather teammates from all over — you can play and collaborate at the same virtual table, as long as you all have access to WiFi.

MEDIA ROOM

— Top of POLITICO this morning: Why officials are raising questions about Biden’s vaccine donations.

— CHEZNEY MARTIN writes on food sovereignty and its connection to treaty hunting rights in Six Nations, Ontario.

— The CBC’s ELIZABETH THOMPSON reports: Protecting Prince Harry cost Canadians more than $334,000.

— In Maclean’s, PAUL WELLS wonders if two identical Cabinet committees on climate and the economy will produce “a system sure to collapse under the weight of its own absurdity.” More on this on THE CURSE OF POLITICSpodcast.

— Another scoop from CBC’s ASHLEY BURKE: “Vice-Admiral HAYDN EDMUNDSON, the military’s former commander in charge of military human resources, has been charged with sexual assault and committing indecent acts.”

— On THE DECIBEL this morning: Boosters, breakthroughs and another COVID-19 winter.

— Assembly of First Nations regional chief JOANNA BERNARD used some choice words to describe New Brunswick Premier BLAINE HIGGS: “He’s a ding dong… he just does not know what he’s doing.”

— AFN National Chief ROSEANNE ARCHIBALD announced Tuesday that an Indigenous delegation scheduled to meet with POPE FRANCIS later this month is postponing travel because of Omicron. OLIVIA STEFANOVICHhas the story for CBC.

PROZONE

If you’re a Pro subscriber, don’t miss our PM Pro Canada memo: Cheat notes for a C$8.7B debate.

In other news for Pros:
— Nord Stream 2 could be ‘suspended’ if Russia invades Ukraine, State Department official says.
— Covid-19 tracker: Omicron variant reaches 50 countries.
— Instagram announces teen restrictions before Senate hearing.
— Shipping industry warns bill due on House floor could worsen supply chain.
— Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is fighting “sea level rise,” not “global warming.”
— Raimondo: No timeline for starting steel talks with U.K.

PLAYBOOKERS

Movers and shakers: Liberal MP JUDY SGRO stood in the House Tuesday to recognize SIMON SUNG’s work in Ottawa serving in the Taipei Economic and Cultural office. “Simon has worked diligently,” she said, “making sure that Canadian MPs are aware of what Taiwan has to offer our country and the world. Most importantly, Simon has made sure that the political situation of Taiwan stays top of mind for all of us.”

Former Canadian ambassador to France ISABELLE HUDON was inducted into the Légion d’honneur at the distinction of Commander at the Embassy of France on Tuesday night in Ottawa. JUSTIN TRUDEAU, STEVEN GUILBEAULT and MARY NG were on hand as the president and CEO of the Business Development Bank of Canada was awarded France’s highest honor.

JESSICA FULLERTON is now a policy adviser on intergovernmental affairs in DOMINIC LEBLANC’s office.

STEPHANIE CARVIN and THOMAS JUNEAU are celebratingthe official release of their new book. The Hub’s SEAN SPEER spoke to them about their findings.

Spotted: On OpenTable’s Top 100 restaurants in Canada: Ottawa’s ATELIER, BAR LUPULUS, NORTH & NAVY and RIVIERA. CTV’s MICHAEL WOOD has more on the list created from diner reviews.

Conservative MP MARK STRAHL in the HoC chamber on Tuesday where he paid tribute to the residents of Chilliwack—Hope. “I have never been more proud of my community,” he said. ... Trudeau’s chief of staff, KATIE TELFORD at The Met, along with MARY NG, CAMERON AHMAD and ZITA ASTRAVAS.

The Globe’s LAURA STONE sharing news of a one-year contract at Queen’s Park: “Oh and some personal news: I’m having a baby soon.’

MP HAN DONG at the naming of GURBAX SINGH MALHI PARK in Brampton. Malhi, first elected in 1993, served as an MP for 18 years. ... Sen. KIM PATE sharing AUTUMN PELTIER’s Q+A with Maclean’s MARIE-DANIELLE SMITH.

At the EQUAL VOICE celebration of 100 years of women MPs: JUSTIN TRUDEAU, ERIN and REBECCA O’TOOLE, JAGMEET SINGH, CHRYSTIA FREELAND, RACHEL BENDAYAN, CAROLE SAAB, RECHIE VALDEZ, ARTHUR KONG, JEAN AUGUSTINE, MICHELLE REMPEL GARNER, KIM CAMPBELL, ERICA IFILL, LYRA EVANS, VALERIE BRADFORD, MARCI IEN, LAURA PECK, ANUSHKA KURIAN, THERESA KAVANAGH, ROBYN OSGOOD, SHARMILA SETARAM, DONNA DASKO, MARILYN GLADU.

6,000 BAGS OF P.E.I. POTATOES — en route to Parliament Hill.

Not spotted: CBC has a report on four Conservative MPs — TED FALK, CATHAY WAGANTALL, DEAN ALLISON and COLIN CARRIE — who have yet to be seen in the Commons.

Birthdays: Sen. STEPHEN GREENE will be 72 — a birth date he shares with MPs YVAN BAKER and SHANNON STUBBS.

Farewells: Liberal MP JENNIFER O’CONNELL paid tribute to former Liberal MP BOB KILGER who died last week. “My favorite story about Bob is the time WAYNE EASTER and another Liberal MP were not in agreement on an issue and there was a contentious committee meeting coming up with the two of them. Bob, as whip and a former NHL referee, went to the committee meeting, sat right in between the two and made sure that they all stayed in line.”

ASK US ANYTHING

What are you hearing that you need Playbook to know? Any questions about the next session of Parliament? Send it all our way.

TRIVIA

Tuesday’s answer: ELLEN FAIRCLOUGH was the first woman appointed to federal Cabinet in John Diefenbaker’s 1957 Conservative government.

Props to the readers below — proving it’s not just sports questions to which you show up in force:

PEGGI MACE, DIANNE SHERRIN, RALPH LEVENSTEIN, SHEILA GERVAIS, WALTER ROBINSON, LEIGH LAMPERT, ELIZABETH BURN, LAURA JARVIS, BEN ROTH, BARBARA GRANTHAM, ANDREW SZENDE, SEAN WEBSTER, BARB WRIGHT, MARY JANE ALLAN, WAYNE FLEMING, JOANNE PITKIN, JOHN ECKER, WILLIAM PRISTANSKI, MICHAEL MACDONALD, ZEV LEWIS, JOHN GUOBA, STEVE PAIKIN, GREG MACEACHERN and BRAM ABRAMSON, who reminded us of Fairclough’s biography: Saturday’s Child.

Wednesday’s question: Speaking of firsts, who said: “When I ran for the first time, I was told that I wouldn’t win for another 50 years because of the turban.”

Send your answers to [email protected]

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