New York Knicks at San Antonio Spurs odds, picks and prediction

USA Today Sportsbookwire

The New York Knicks (11-12) travel to the AT&T Center Tuesday to play the San Antonio Spurs (8-14) at 8:30 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Knicks vs. Spurs odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions, and bets.

New York has lost four of five games including three straight to the Brooklyn Nets, Chicago Bulls and Denver Nuggets. The Knicks are 10-13 ATS and 10-13 O/U with the 21st-ranked net rating.

San Antonio just had a four-game winning streak snapped Monday with a 108-104 loss at the Phoenix Suns but covered as a 7.5-point road underdog. The Spurs are 13-9 ATS and 9-11-2 O/U with the 15th-best net rating.

These teams split last season's series 1-1, but San Antonio covered both meetings with the O/U going 1-1. The Spurs are 4-1 overall and ATS in their last five meetings with the Knicks.

Knicks at Spurs odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports' betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:55 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Knicks -135 (bet $135 to win $100) | Spurs +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
  • Against the spread (ATS): Knicks -2.5 (-107) | Spurs +2.5 (-115)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 210.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)

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Knicks at Spurs key injuries

Knicks

  • None

Spurs

  • F Devin Vassell (thigh) out

Knicks at Spurs odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Knicks 106, Spurs 100

Money line

"LEAN" to the KNICKS (-135) because this is a good scheduling spot for them since they are well-rested and have been off the last two days.

The Knicks are 10-5 overall and 11-4 ATS with a plus-4.6 ATS margin when playing on two or three days' rest since the start of last season. New York is 14-9 overall with a rest advantage and 9-5 overall with a plus-8.3 margin of victory under second-year head coach Tom Thibodeau.

New York defends what San Antonio does frequently. The Spurs attempt the most mid-range field goals in the league (according to CleaningTheGlass.com) and generate a ton of looks off of screens and shots at the rim (according to ShotQuality.com).

But New York has the 10th-best defensive field-goal percentage vs. mid-range jumpers and the best defensive field-goal percentage vs. attempts at the rim.

The Knicks attempt the seventh-highest volume of shots off of pick-and-roll action and the Spurs are 27th in shot quality allowed vs. pick-and-roll plays (ShotQuality.com).

The reason for the "LEAN" to the KNICKS (-135) is that they have a negative net rating and are still configuring their rotations. It's tough betting a road favorite who's still working on its identity.

Against the spread

PASS since I only "lean" to New York winning outright and am not confident enough to lay it with the Knicks -2.5 (-107).

Over/Under

BET UNDER 210.5 (-108) for 1 unit as the best wager in the Knicks-Spurs contest.

New York plays at the 25th-fastest pace in the NBA and plays good defense on what San Antonio likes to do. The Spurs play the fifth-fastest pace in the league but have the lowest free-throw attempt and 3-point attempt rates.

Also, we are getting a "reverse line movement" heading south of the total. According to Pregame.com and the Yahoo! Sports app, a vast majority of the bets are on the Over, but the total has dropped from the 212-point opener.

Furthermore, San Antonio has the 24th-ranked offensive rating, New York's offense relies heavily on getting to the foul line, but the Spurs have the best defensive FT/FGA rate.

The bottom line is both teams' styles suggest this game will be a "rock-fight." BET UNDER 210.5 (-108).

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